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Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Berlemann

    (Helmut-Schmidt-University Hamburg, Germany)

  • Soeren Enkelmann

    (Department of Economics, Leuphana University Lueneburg, Germany)

  • Torben Kuhlenkasper

    (Goethe University Frankfurt and HWWI, Germany)

Abstract

Empirical studies analyzing the determinants of U.S. presidential popularity have delivered quite inconclusive results concerning the role of economic variables by assuming linear relationships. We employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of semi-parametric additive mixed models and allow for flexible functional forms and thus possible non-linear effects for the economic determinants. By controlling for the well-known politically motivated covariables, we find strong evidence for non-linear and negative effects of unemployment, inflation, and government consumption on presidential approval. Additionally, we present new results in favor of non-parametric trivariate interaction effects between the macroeconomic covariables.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Berlemann & Soeren Enkelmann & Torben Kuhlenkasper, 2013. "Unraveling the Relationship between Presidential Approval and the Economy - A Multi-Dimensional Semi-Parametric Approach," Working Paper Series in Economics 273, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lue:wpaper:273
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Aviral K. Tiwari, 2024. "Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States," Working Papers 202427, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2016. "Voting and Popularity," CESifo Working Paper Series 6182, CESifo.
    4. Masahiro Tanaka, 2015. "Measuring Political Budget Cycles: A Bayesian Semiparametric Assessment," Working Papers 1415, Waseda University, Faculty of Political Science and Economics.
    5. Yuvana Jaichand & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Presidential Approval Ratings and Stock Market Performance in Latin America," Working Papers 202411, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    6. Hannu Tanninen & Matti Tuomala & Elina Tuominen, 2019. "Income Inequality, Redistributive Preferences and the Extent of Redistribution: An Empirical Application of Optimal Tax Approach," LIS Working papers 743, LIS Cross-National Data Center in Luxembourg.
    7. Kerim Peren Arin & Eberhard Feess & Torben Kuhlenkasper & Otto F. M. Reich, 2019. "Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 86(1), pages 305-317, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Presidential Popularity; Macroeconomy; Semi-Parametric Regression; Penalized Splines;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government

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