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Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados

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Abstract

O presente artigo analisa o impacto da economia na popularidade dos governantes e nas intenções de voto dos portugueses. Os resultados das estimações realizadas revelam que: (1) os eleitores portugueses responsabilizam os governantes pela evolução da economia, em particular pelo desemprego; (2) os governos de direita são mais responsabilizados que os de esquerda pela evolução da inflação; (3) a avaliação do desempenho dos governantes é essencialmente retrospectiva. Os dados revelam ainda que a popularidade dos governantes/partidos depende da personalidade do seu líder, que existe erosão da popularidade ao longo de mandatos consecutivos no poder e que os governantes beneficiam de um estado de graça imediatamente após as eleições.

Suggested Citation

  • Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2003. "Economia, Popularidade e Intenções de Voto em Portugal: uma Análise Longitudinal com Dados Agregados," NIPE Working Papers 3/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    • Handle: RePEc:nip:nipewp:3/2003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francisco José Veiga & Linda Gonçalves Veiga, 2004. "Popularity functions, partisan effects, and support in Parliament," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 101-115, March.
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    4. Hibbs, Douglas A., 1977. "Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 71(4), pages 1467-1487, December.
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    7. Alberto Alesina & Nouriel Roubini & Gerald D. Cohen, 1997. "Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262510944, April.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economia; popularidade; intenções de voto; Portugal.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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