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The Influence of Local and National Economic Conditions on French Legislative Elections

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  • Antoine Auberger

    (LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

  • Eric Dubois

    (LAEP - LAboratoire d'Economie Publique - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne)

Abstract

This article's aim consists in building and estimating a model which explains and forecasts the outcomes of the French legislative elections by department. This model, which constitutes the first attempt for such a geographical level, emphasises the role of the economic and political factors in the explanation of the legislative vote. The model seems to be very accurate in forecasting the elections of the past at the local and national level. Furthermore, its behaviour for the 2002 election was very satisfactory. This model is therefore a reliable alternative to the vote intention polls as an electoral forecasting instrument.

Suggested Citation

  • Antoine Auberger & Eric Dubois, 2005. "The Influence of Local and National Economic Conditions on French Legislative Elections," Post-Print hal-00800638, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-00800638
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-00800638
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Burton Abrams, 1980. "The influence of state-level economic conditions on presidential elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 623-631, January.
    2. Abrams, Burton A & Butkiewicz, James L, 1995. "The Influence of State-Level Economic Conditions on the 1992 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 85(1-2), pages 1-10, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Éric Dubois, 2007. "Les déterminants économiques du vote 1976-2006 : trente ans de fonctions de vote en France," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(2), pages 243-270.
    2. Economou, Athina & Gavroglou, Stavros & Kollias, Christos, 2013. "Economic fluctuations and political self-placement," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 57-65.
    3. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, economic conditions and French legislative elections [Vote, popularité, conditions économiques et élections législatives françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480853, HAL.
    4. Edo, Anthony & Giesing, Yvonne & Öztunc, Jonathan & Poutvaara, Panu, 2019. "Immigration and electoral support for the far-left and the far-right," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 99-143.
    5. Rodrigo Martins & Francisco Veiga, 2013. "Economic voting in Portuguese municipal elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 155(3), pages 317-334, June.
    6. Aurélie Cassette & Etienne Farvaque & Jérôme Héricourt, 2013. "Two-round elections, one-round determinants? Evidence from the French municipal elections," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 563-591, September.
    7. Martial Foucault & Thierry Madies & Sonia Paty, 2008. "Public spending interactions and local politics. Empirical evidence from French municipalities," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 57-80, October.
    8. Francisco Jose Veiga & Linda Goncalves Veiga, 2010. "The impact of local and national economic conditions on legislative election results," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(13), pages 1727-1734.
    9. Arzheimer, Kai & Evans, Jocelyn, 2010. "Bread and butter à la française: Multiparty forecasts of the French legislative vote (1981-2007)," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 19-31, January.
    10. Elinder, Mikael, 2010. "Local economies and general elections: The influence of municipal and regional economic conditions on voting in Sweden 1985-2002," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 279-292, June.
    11. repec:rre:publsh:v:36:y:2006:i:3:p:427-47 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Eric Dubois & Sonia Paty, 2010. "Yardstick competition: which neighbours matter?," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 44(3), pages 433-452, June.
    13. repec:hal:cesptp:hal-00800688 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Panagiotis Artelaris & Yannis Tsirbas, 2018. "Anti-austerity voting in an era of economic crisis: Regional evidence from the 2015 referendum in Greece," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(4), pages 589-608, June.
    15. Eric Dubois & François Facchini & Martial Foucault & Abel François, 2009. "Un modèle explicatif du vote FNSEA aux élections des représentants des chefs d'exploitation aux Chambres d'Agriculture départementales (1995-2001)," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-00800701, HAL.
    16. Antoine Auberger, 2015. "The impact of economic and political factors on popularity for France (1981-2014)," Working Papers halshs-01264983, HAL.
    17. Eric Dubois & Matthieu Leprince & Sonia Paty, 2007. "The Effects of Politics on Local Tax Setting: Evidence from France," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 44(8), pages 1603-1618, July.
    18. Antoine Auberger, 2011. "Popularity Functions for the French President and Prime Minister (1995-2007)," Working Papers halshs-00872313, HAL.
    19. Artés, Joaquín, 2014. "The rain in Spain: Turnout and partisan voting in Spanish elections," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 126-141.
    20. Antoine Auberger, 2012. "Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 153(3), pages 329-340, December.
    21. Antoine Auberger, 2021. "Vote, popularity, unemployment and French presidential elections [Vote, popularité, chômage et élections présidentielles françaises]," Working Papers hal-03480855, HAL.
    22. Bačo, Tomáš & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2021. "Socioeconomic factors and shifts in ideological orientation among political parties: Parliamentary elections in Slovakia from 1998 to 2020," EconStor Preprints 246584, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    23. Elinder, Mikael, 2006. "Local Economies and General Elections," Working Paper Series 2007:1, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    24. Fırat Gündem, 2023. "Beliefs, economics, and spatial regimes in voting behavior: the Turkish case, 2007–2018," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, December.

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