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Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050

Author

Listed:
  • Rik van Heerden

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Oreane Y Edelenbosch

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht])

  • Vassilis Daioglou

    (Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency)

  • Thomas Le Gallic

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées)

  • Luiz Bernardo Baptista

    (UNIRIO - Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Alice Di Bella

    (POLIMI - Dipartimento di Electtronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria [Politecnico Milano] - POLIMI - Politecnico di Milano [Milan], CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Francesco Pietro Colelli

    (University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy], CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Johannes Emmerling

    (CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Panagiotis Fragkos
  • Robin Hasse

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Johanna Hoppe

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin)

  • Paul Kishimoto

    (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

  • Florian Leblanc

    (CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Julien Lefèvre

    (AgroParisTech, CIRED - Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École nationale des ponts et chaussées - Université Paris-Saclay - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Gunnar Luderer

    (TUB - Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin, PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Giacomo Marangoni

    (TU Delft - Delft University of Technology, CMCC - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change)

  • Alessio Mastrucci

    (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

  • Hazel Pettifor

    (OUCE - Oxford University Centre for the Environment - University of Oxford)

  • Robert Pietzcker

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Pedro Rochedo

    (Khalifa University)

  • Bas van Ruijven

    (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

  • Roberto Schaeffer

    (UNIRIO - Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro)

  • Charlie Wilson

    (OUCE - Oxford University Centre for the Environment - University of Oxford, IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

  • Sonia Yeh

    (Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg])

  • Eleftheria Zisarou
  • Detlef van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht])

Abstract

Decarbonization of energy-using sectors is essential for tackling climate change. We use an ensemble of global integrated assessment models to assess CO2 emissions reduction potentials in buildings and transport, accounting for system interactions. We focus on three intervention strategies with distinct emphases: reducing or changing activity, improving technological efficiency and electrifying energy end use. We find that these strategies can reduce emissions by 51–85% in buildings and 37–91% in transport by 2050 relative to a current policies scenario (ranges indicate model variability). Electrification has the largest potential for direct emissions reductions in both sectors. Interactions between the policies and measures that comprise the three strategies have a modest overall effect on mitigation potentials. However, combining different strategies is strongly beneficial from an energy system perspective as lower electricity demand reduces the need for costly supply-side investments and infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Rik van Heerden & Oreane Y Edelenbosch & Vassilis Daioglou & Thomas Le Gallic & Luiz Bernardo Baptista & Alice Di Bella & Francesco Pietro Colelli & Johannes Emmerling & Panagiotis Fragkos & Robin Has, 2025. "Demand-side strategies enable rapid and deep cuts in buildings and transport emissions to 2050," Post-Print hal-04985303, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04985303
    DOI: 10.1038/s41560-025-01703-1
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04985303v1
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