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A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing, mobility, and material efficiency for material cycles and energy systems modeling

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  • Tomer Fishman
  • Niko Heeren
  • Stefan Pauliuk
  • Peter Berrill
  • Qingshi Tu
  • Paul Wolfram
  • Edgar G. Hertwich

Abstract

Scenario‐based assessments are a useful tool to explore unknown futures and inform decision makers and the public of the consequences of different courses of action. Scenario developments in industrial ecology have focused on disparate components of the socioeconomic metabolism and case studies, and few efforts of comprehensive and cumulative scenario formulation are documented. Many important, empirically derived relationships between material cycles, end‐use services, and energy use are relevant to global scenario modeling efforts, for example, of integrated assessment models (IAMs), which do not routinely describe material cycles or the life‐cycle impacts of various technology shifts. These inconsistent depictions of material cycles and their environmental impacts hinder the assessment of sustainable development strategies such as demand‐side sufficiency, material efficiency, and energy efficiency. We developed three highly detailed scenarios covering 20 global regions to 2060 for the service provisioning of dwelling area and personal transport grounded in salient building and vehicle operation parameters. Our scenarios are based on, and interface with, the Low Energy Demand (LED) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1 and SSP2) narratives. The results comprise scenario‐, region‐, and period‐specific narratives and corresponding parameter values, including per‐capita floor space and vehicle stocks, building and vehicle archetype mixes, passenger‐km, vehicle‐km, vehicle occupancy rates, and implementation potentials of nine material efficiency strategies. The explicit storyline extension approach presented here is an alternative to the aggregate GDP‐driven or historical trend extrapolations of service or energy demands. We describe the scenario formulation processes, resulting parameters, their applications, and offer an outlook for prospective sustainability models. This article met the requirements for a Gold‐Gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

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  • Tomer Fishman & Niko Heeren & Stefan Pauliuk & Peter Berrill & Qingshi Tu & Paul Wolfram & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "A comprehensive set of global scenarios of housing, mobility, and material efficiency for material cycles and energy systems modeling," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 305-320, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:inecol:v:25:y:2021:i:2:p:305-320
    DOI: 10.1111/jiec.13122
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    2. Liang, Yanan & Kleijn, René & van der Voet, Ester, 2023. "Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).
    3. Eric Masanet & Niko Heeren & Shigemi Kagawa & Jonathan Cullen & Reid Lifset & Richard Wood, 2021. "Material efficiency for climate change mitigation," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 25(2), pages 254-259, April.
    4. Nguyen, Thi Cuc & Miatto, Alessio & Kim, Junbeum, 2024. "Material services in an emerging economy: Tracking resource utilization in Vietnam's shelter, thermal comfort, and road transportation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    5. Pauliuk, Stefan, 2024. "Decent living standards, prosperity, and excessive consumption in the Lorenz curve," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    6. Shiva Zargar & Yuan Yao & Qingshi Tu, 2022. "A review of inventory modeling methods for missing data in life cycle assessment," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 26(5), pages 1676-1689, October.
    7. Janneke van Oorschot & Benjamin Sprecher & Bart Rijken & Pieter Witteveen & Merlijn Blok & Nico Schouten & Ester van der Voet, 2023. "Toward a low‐carbon and circular building sector: Building strategies and urbanization pathways for the Netherlands," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 27(2), pages 535-547, April.

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