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Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy

Author

Listed:
  • Gregor Semieniuk

    (University of Massachusetts Amherst
    SOAS University of London)

  • Lance Taylor

    (New School for Social Research)

  • Armon Rezai

    (Vienna University of Economics and Business
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
    Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW))

  • Duncan K. Foley

    (New School for Social Research)

Abstract

Reducing the energy demand has become a key mechanism for limiting climate change, but there are practical limitations associated with large energy savings in a growing global economy and, importantly, its lower-income parts. Using new data on energy and GDP, we show that adopting the same near-term low-energy growth trajectory in all regions in IPCC scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5 °C presents an unresolved policy challenge. We discuss this challenge of combining energy demand reductions with robust income growth for the 6.4 billion people in middle- and low-income countries in light of the reliance of economic development on industrialization. Our results highlight the importance of addressing limits to energy demand reduction in integrated assessment modelling when regional economic development is powered by industrialization and of instead exploring faster energy supply decarbonization. Insights from development economics and other disciplines could help generate plausible assumptions given the financial, investment and stability issues involved.

Suggested Citation

  • Gregor Semieniuk & Lance Taylor & Armon Rezai & Duncan K. Foley, 2021. "Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(4), pages 313-318, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:4:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00975-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00975-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Santos, João & Borges, Afonso S. & Domingos, Tiago, 2021. "Exploring the links between total factor productivity and energy efficiency: Portugal, 1960–2014," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    2. Omer, Ozlem & Capaldo, Jeronim, 2023. "The risks of the wrong climate policy for developing countries: Scenarios for South Africa," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    3. Zhao, Wanli & Zhai, Xiangyang & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Zhenhua, 2024. "Measuring crisis from climate risk spillovers in European electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    4. Zhang, Yanfang & Wei, Jinpeng & Gao, Qi & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Coordination between the energy-consumption permit trading scheme and carbon emissions trading: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Michael Carnegie LaBelle & Géza Tóth & Tekla Szép, 2022. "Not Fit for 55: Prioritizing Human Well-Being in Residential Energy Consumption in the European Union," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(18), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Charles A. S. Hall, 2022. "The 50th Anniversary of The Limits to Growth : Does It Have Relevance for Today’s Energy Issues?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-13, July.
    7. Fang, Yan Ru & Peng, Wei & Urpelainen, Johannes & Hossain, M.S. & Qin, Yue & Ma, Teng & Ren, Ming & Liu, Xiaorui & Zhang, Silu & Huang, Chen & Dai, Hancheng, 2023. "Neutralizing China's transportation sector requires combined decarbonization efforts from power and hydrogen supply," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 349(C).
    8. Oluwatobi Allen & Oghenekevwe Kofi, 2024. "The Importance of Renewable Energy for Telecommunications Base Stations," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(7), pages 3363-3369, July.
    9. Andrius Zuoza & Vaida Pilinkienė, 2021. "Energy Efficiency and Carbon Emission Impact on Competitiveness in the European Energy Intensive Industries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Fouquet, Roger & Hippe, Ralph, 2022. "Twin transitions of decarbonisation and digitalisation: a historical perspective on energy and information in European economies," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115544, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. Ur Rehman, Faheem & Islam, Md. Monirul, 2023. "Does energy infrastructure spur total factor productivity (TFP) in middle-income economies? An application of a novel energy infrastructure index," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 336(C).
    12. Brockway, Paul E. & Sorrell, Steve & Semieniuk, Gregor & Heun, Matthew Kuperus & Court, Victor, 2021. "Energy efficiency and economy-wide rebound effects: A review of the evidence and its implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    13. Servaas Storm, 2023. "Lance Taylor (1940–2022): Reconstructing Macroeconomics," Development and Change, International Institute of Social Studies, vol. 54(5), pages 1331-1353, September.
    14. Lu, Yuhai & Gong, Mincheng & Lu, Linzhuo & Wang, Yaqin & Wang, Yang, 2024. "Urban polycentrism and total-factor energy efficiency: An analysis based on the night light data," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    15. Ma, Chao & Deng, Zexing & Xu, Ximeng & Pang, Xiulan & Li, Xiaofeng & Wu, Runze & Tian, Zhuojun, 2024. "Space optimization of utility-scale photovoltaic power plants considering the impact of inter-row shading," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 370(C).
    16. Su, Chi-Wei & Yuan, Xi & Tao, Ran & Shao, Xuefeng, 2022. "Time and frequency domain connectedness analysis of the energy transformation under climate policy," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    17. Semieniuk, Gregor, 2024. "Inconsistent definitions of GDP: Implications for estimates of decoupling," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    18. Ignacio Mauleón, 2021. "Aggregated World Energy Demand Projections: Statistical Assessment," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-13, July.

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