Navigating the transition: Modelling the path for net-zero European building sector

Transition towards a net-zero building sector offers substantial potential to mitigate climate change impacts and thus plays a pivotal role in meeting the goals set forth in the Paris Agreement. Stakeholders often use mathematical models to understand the true potential for mitigating emissions by reducing the energy demand of the building sector. However, the existing models rarely provide insights into net-zero pathways for both the residential and tertiary buildings as this is a complex sector to calculate the future pathways towards net-zero. Hence, uncertainties in the associated policy decisions persist. Therefore, this study uses the High-Efficiency Building (HEB) energy model to calculate the energy demand reduction potential as well as to analyze the net-zero feasibility of the building sector for each of the European Union Member States. This research uses four scenarios, which are designed to represent scenario-specific levels of commitment the European Union Member States regarding the application of different energy efficiency measures, to provide insights into the consequences of today's policy decisions by 2060. The findings of this study show that energy demand of the building sector can be reduced substantially and can even become nearly net-zero by 2060. Based on the demand reduction potential of the building sector, it can be concluded that the building renovation rate and construction of new advanced buildings not only provides unprecedented potential for reducing energy demand but also paves the way for reaching climate neutrality goals.