IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/tefoso/v174y2022ics0040162521007435.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impacts of ride and car-sharing associated with fully autonomous cars on global energy consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions

Author

Listed:
  • Akimoto, Keigo
  • Sano, Fuminori
  • Oda, Junichiro

Abstract

The improvements in digital technology will induce a sharing economy, and particularly in the transportation sector fully autonomous cars will accelerate ride-sharing and car-sharing. This study analyzes the impacts of ride and car-sharing on global energy demand and reduction in CO2 emission quantitatively and consistently by using a global energy systems model. It considers the direct reduction in energy consumption by cars as well as indirect reduction due to a decrease in the production of iron, steel, plastics, and cement. The ride and car-sharing will provide a significant opportunity for reducing global emissions with low or negative costs. The marginal CO2 abatement cost in 2050 is $169/tCO2 for the 2 °C target, with over 50% probability of achievement under a middle socioeconomic scenario without ride and car-sharing. However, it is $150/tCO2 with the sharing scenario, mitigating the dependence on large-scale deployments of bioenergy with carbon dioxide capture and storage in the power sector. Besides, due to the impact of a reduction in the number of cars and consumption of basic materials, the 2 °C target with over 66% probability as well as over 50% probability can be achieved with economically net positive impacts in 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Oda, Junichiro, 2022. "Impacts of ride and car-sharing associated with fully autonomous cars on global energy consumptions and carbon dioxide emissions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:174:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007435
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121311
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162521007435
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.121311?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Feiqi & Zhao, Fuquan & Liu, Zongwei & Hao, Han, 2019. "Can autonomous vehicle reduce greenhouse gas emissions? A country-level evaluation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 462-473.
    2. Wadud, Zia & MacKenzie, Don & Leiby, Paul, 2016. "Help or hindrance? The travel, energy and carbon impacts of highly automated vehicles," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1-18.
    3. Keigo Akimoto & Fuminori Sano & Toshimasa Tomoda, 2018. "GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 839-852, August.
    4. Felix Creutzig & Joyashree Roy & William F. Lamb & Inês M. L. Azevedo & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Holger Dalkmann & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Frank W. Geels & Arnulf Grubler & Cameron Hepburn & Edgar G. H, 2018. "Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(4), pages 260-263, April.
    5. Jeffery B. Greenblatt & Samveg Saxena, 2015. "Autonomous taxis could greatly reduce greenhouse-gas emissions of US light-duty vehicles," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 860-863, September.
    6. Akimoto, Keigo & Sano, Fuminori & Homma, Takashi & Oda, Junichiro & Nagashima, Miyuki & Kii, Masanobu, 2010. "Estimates of GHG emission reduction potential by country, sector, and cost," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 3384-3393, July.
    7. Georges Darido & Mariana Torres-Montoya & Shomik Mehndiratta, 2014. "Urban transport and CO 2 emissions: some evidence from Chinese cities," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 3(2), pages 122-155, March.
    8. Charlie Wilson & Arnulf Grubler & Kelly S. Gallagher & Gregory F. Nemet, 2012. "Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(11), pages 780-788, November.
    9. Peter Sands & Gordon Liao & Yueran Ma, 2018. "Rethinking Operational Risk Capital Requirements," Journal of Financial Regulation, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-34.
    10. David L. McCollum & Charlie Wilson & Michela Bevione & Samuel Carrara & Oreane Y. Edelenbosch & Johannes Emmerling & Céline Guivarch & Panagiotis Karkatsoulis & Ilkka Keppo & Volker Krey & Zhenhong Li, 2018. "Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 664-673, August.
    11. Itf, 2016. "Shared Mobility: Innovation for Liveable Cities," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 21, OECD Publishing.
    12. Itf, 2015. "Urban Mobility System Upgrade: How shared self-driving cars could change city traffic," International Transport Forum Policy Papers 6, OECD Publishing.
    13. Arnulf Grubler & Charlie Wilson & Nuno Bento & Benigna Boza-Kiss & Volker Krey & David L. McCollum & Narasimha D. Rao & Keywan Riahi & Joeri Rogelj & Simon Stercke & Jonathan Cullen & Stefan Frank & O, 2018. "A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 515-527, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Peng, Benhong & Zhao, Yinyin & Elahi, Ehsan & Wan, Anxia, 2023. "Can third-party market cooperation solve the dilemma of emissions reduction? A case study of energy investment project conflict analysis in the context of carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 264(C).
    2. Yoganathan, Vignesh & Osburg, Victoria-Sophie, 2024. "Heterogenous evaluations of autonomous vehicle services: An extended theoretical framework and empirical evidence," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 198(C).
    3. Xingjun, Huang & Mao, Zhouhui & Lin, Yun & Shi, Qiuju & Liu, Feng & Zhou, Fuli, 2024. "Sharing or privacy for private electric vehicle charging piles? Evidence from Chongqing," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    4. Su, Yu-Shan & Huang, Hsini & Daim, Tugrul & Chien, Pan-Wei & Peng, Ru-Ling & Karaman Akgul, Arzu, 2023. "Assessing the technological trajectory of 5G-V2X autonomous driving inventions: Use of patent analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    5. Nikolaos Gavanas & Konstantina Anastasiadou & Eftihia Nathanail & Socrates Basbas, 2024. "Transport Policy Pathways for Autonomous Road Vehicles to Promote Sustainable Urban Development in the European Union: A Multicriteria Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-25, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paul Wolfram & Stephanie Weber & Kenneth Gillingham & Edgar G. Hertwich, 2021. "Pricing indirect emissions accelerates low—carbon transition of US light vehicle sector," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Moneim Massar & Imran Reza & Syed Masiur Rahman & Sheikh Muhammad Habib Abdullah & Arshad Jamal & Fahad Saleh Al-Ismail, 2021. "Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles on Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Positive or Negative?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(11), pages 1-23, May.
    3. Pan, Shuai & Fulton, Lewis M. & Roy, Anirban & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2021. "Shared use of electric autonomous vehicles: Air quality and health impacts of future mobility in the United States," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    4. Qian, Lixian & Yin, Juelin & Huang, Youlin & Liang, Ya, 2023. "The role of values and ethics in influencing consumers’ intention to use autonomous vehicle hailing services," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    5. Jia Guo & Yusak Susilo & Constantinos Antoniou & Anna Pernestål Brenden, 2020. "Influence of Individual Perceptions on the Decision to Adopt Automated Bus Services," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-13, August.
    6. Manon Feys & Evy Rombaut & Lieselot Vanhaverbeke, 2020. "Experience and Acceptance of Autonomous Shuttles in the Brussels Capital Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-23, October.
    7. Johannes Morfeldt & Daniel J. A. Johansson, 2022. "Impacts of shared mobility on vehicle lifetimes and on the carbon footprint of electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Pi, Dawei & Xue, Pengyu & Wang, Weihua & Xie, Boyuan & Wang, Hongliang & Wang, Xianhui & Yin, Guodong, 2023. "Automotive platoon energy-saving: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    9. Martin Adler & Stefanie Peer & Tanja Sinozic, 2019. "Autonomous, Connected, Electric Shared vehicles (ACES) and public finance: an explorative analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 19-005/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Meyer, Jonas & Becker, Henrik & Bösch, Patrick M. & Axhausen, Kay W., 2017. "Autonomous vehicles: The next jump in accessibilities?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 80-91.
    11. Hollands, A.F. & Daly, H., 2023. "Modelling the integrated achievement of clean cooking access and climate mitigation goals: An energy systems optimization approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    12. John Barrett & Steve Pye & Sam Betts-Davies & Oliver Broad & James Price & Nick Eyre & Jillian Anable & Christian Brand & George Bennett & Rachel Carr-Whitworth & Alice Garvey & Jannik Giesekam & Greg, 2022. "Energy demand reduction options for meeting national zero-emission targets in the United Kingdom," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 726-735, August.
    13. Said, Fathin Faizah & Babatunde, Kazeem Alasinrin & Md Nor, Nor Ghani & Mahmoud, Moamin A. & Begum, Rawshan Ara, 2022. "Decarbonizing the Global Electricity Sector through Demand-Side Management: A Systematic Critical Review of Policy Responses," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 56(1), pages 71-91.
    14. Roberto Battistini & Luca Mantecchini & Maria Nadia Postorino, 2020. "Users’ Acceptance of Connected and Automated Shuttles for Tourism Purposes: A Survey Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-17, December.
    15. Becker, Henrik & Becker, Felix & Abe, Ryosuke & Bekhor, Shlomo & Belgiawan, Prawira F. & Compostella, Junia & Frazzoli, Emilio & Fulton, Lewis M. & Guggisberg Bicudo, Davi & Murthy Gurumurthy, Krishna, 2020. "Impact of vehicle automation and electric propulsion on production costs for mobility services worldwide," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 105-126.
    16. Iva Bojic & Dániel Kondor & Wei Tu & Ke Mai & Paolo Santi & Carlo Ratti, 2021. "Identifying the Potential for Partial Integration of Private and Public Transportation," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-16, March.
    17. Nadafianshahamabadi, Razieh & Tayarani, Mohammad & Rowangould, Gregory, 2021. "A closer look at urban development under the emergence of autonomous vehicles: Traffic, land use and air quality impacts," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    18. Rodier, Caroline & Jaller, Miguel & Pourrahmani, Elham & Bischoff, Joschka & Freedman, Joel & Pahwa, Anmol, 2018. "Automated Vehicle Scenarios: Simulation of System-Level Travel Effects Using Agent-Based Demand and Supply Models in the San Francisco Bay Area," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt4dk3n531, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    19. Nuri C. Onat & Jafar Mandouri & Murat Kucukvar & Burak Sen & Saddam A. Abbasi & Wael Alhajyaseen & Adeeb A. Kutty & Rateb Jabbar & Marcello Contestabile & Abdel Magid Hamouda, 2023. "Rebound effects undermine carbon footprint reduction potential of autonomous electric vehicles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-13, December.
    20. Oshiro, Ken & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2022. "Role of hydrogen-based energy carriers as an alternative option to reduce residual emissions associated with mid-century decarbonization goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:174:y:2022:i:c:s0040162521007435. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00401625 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.