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Determinants and probability prediction of college student retention: new evidence from the Probit model

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  • Tin-Chun Lin
  • William Wei-Choun Yu
  • Yi-Chi Chen

Abstract

In this study, we adopt the Probit model and employ data on nine new freshmen cohorts at a public regional university to examine predictive factors for students' retention and measure projected probability of retention for an average college student. Results suggest four main findings: 1) high school GPA and class rank are significant positive retention predictors while ACT scores are not; 2) graduating from a larger high school indicates greater likelihood of retention; 3) controlling other factors, being female indicates lower likelihood of retention; 4) programmes including orientation or remedial English courses, on-campus jobs, and on-campus residence positively impact retention. In addition, we discuss implications that connect retention with grade inflation. Grade inflation will have negative impacts on institutions and students, not only in the higher education market but also in both the job and knowledge markets in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Tin-Chun Lin & William Wei-Choun Yu & Yi-Chi Chen, 2012. "Determinants and probability prediction of college student retention: new evidence from the Probit model," International Journal of Education Economics and Development, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 217-236.
    • Handle: RePEc:ids:ijeded:v:3:y:2012:i:3:p:217-236
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2017. "How Risky is College Investment?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 140-163, October.
    2. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2017. "How Risky is College Investment?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 140-163, October.
    3. Iván Sandoval-Palis & David Naranjo & Jack Vidal & Raquel Gilar-Corbi, 2020. "Early Dropout Prediction Model: A Case Study of University Leveling Course Students," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-17, November.
    4. Raquel Gilar-Corbi & Teresa Pozo-Rico & Juan-Luis Castejón & Tarquino Sánchez & Ivan Sandoval-Palis & Jack Vidal, 2020. "Academic Achievement and Failure in University Studies: Motivational and Emotional Factors," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-14, November.

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