IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_1851.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long-Run Equilibrium and Short-Run Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Mario Cerrato

Abstract

This paper presents further empirical evidence on the relationship between black market and official exchange rates in six emerging economies (Iran, India, Indonesia, Korea, Pakistan, and Thailand). First, it applies both time series techniques and heterogeneous panel methods to test for the existence of a long-run relationship between these two types of exchange rates. Second, it tests formally the validity of the proportionality restriction implying a constant black-market premium. Third, it also analyses the short-run dynamic responses of both markets to shocks. Finally, it tries to shed some light on the determinants of the market premium. Evidence of slow reversion to the long-run equilibrium is found. Further, it appears that capital controls and expected currency devaluation are the two main factors affecting the size of the premium and determining the breakdown in the proportionality relationship.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2006. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long-Run Equilibrium and Short-Run Dynamics," CESifo Working Paper Series 1851, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1851
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cesifo.org/DocDL/cesifo1_wp1851.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
    2. Chinn, Menzie David & Ito, Hiro, 2005. "What Matters for Financial Development? Capital Controls, Institutions, and Interactions," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5pv1j341, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    3. Kiguel, Miguel & O'Connell, Stephen A, 1995. "Parallel Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 10(1), pages 21-52, February.
    4. Kilian, Lutz, 1999. "Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Long-Horizon Regressions?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 491-510, Sept.-Oct.
    5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    6. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis, 2007. "Does purchasing power parity hold in emerging markets? Evidence from a panel of black market exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 427-444.
    7. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    8. Cerrato, Mario & Nicholas Sarantis, 2003. "Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 40, Royal Economic Society.
    9. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2001. "Black and official exchange rates in Greece: an analysis of their long-run dynamics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 295-314, July.
    10. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
    11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    12. Lence, Sergio & Falk, Barry, 2005. "Cointegration, market integration, and market efficiency," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 873-890, October.
    13. Nita Ghei & Steven B. Kamin, 1996. "The use of the parallel market rate as a guide to setting the official exchange rate," International Finance Discussion Papers 564, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
    15. Taylor, Mark P. & Sarno, Lucio, 1998. "The behavior of real exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods period," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-312, December.
    16. Li, Hongyi & Maddala, G. S., 1997. "Bootstrapping cointegrating regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 297-318, October.
    17. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
    18. Mario Cerrato & Neil Kellard & Nicholas Sarantis, 2008. "The Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Puzzle: Evidence From Black Market Real Exchange Rates," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(4), pages 405-423, July.
    19. C. W. J. Granger & Roselyne Joyeux, 1980. "An Introduction To Long‐Memory Time Series Models And Fractional Differencing," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gina Pieters, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Ibrahim ONOUR, 2018. "Technical Trading Rules And Trading Signals In The Black Market For Foreign Exchange In Sudan," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 9(1), pages 25-31.
    3. Ferit Kula & Alper Aslan & lhan zt rk, 2014. "Long Run Tendencies and Short Run Adjustments Between Official and Black Market Exchange Rates in MENA Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 494-500.
    4. Ricky Chee Jiun Chia & Shiok Ye Lim & Sheue Li Ong, 2014. "Long-Run Validity of Purchasing Power Parity and Cointegration Analysis for Low Income African Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1438-1447.
    5. Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
    6. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.
    7. Sovannroeun Samreth, 2010. "A Note on Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Parallel and Official Exchange Rates: The Case of Cambodia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1044-1053.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gina Pieters, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Expectations and the black market premium for foreign currency in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 667-677.
    3. Feng, Wenjun & Zhang, Zhengjun, 2023. "Currency exchange rate predictability: The new power of Bitcoin prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    4. Gina Christelle Pieters, 2017. "Bitcoin Reveals Exchange Rate Manipulation and Detects Capital Controls," 2017 Papers ppi307, Job Market Papers.
    5. Aleksejs Krecetovs & Pasquale Della Corte, 2016. "Macro uncertainty and currency premia," 2016 Meeting Papers 624, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2002. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: new evidence from a century of data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 359-385, December.
    7. Valérie Mignon & Christophe Hurlin, 2005. "Une synthèse des tests de racine unitaire sur données de panel," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 253-294.
    8. Ferit Kula & Alper Aslan & lhan zt rk, 2014. "Long Run Tendencies and Short Run Adjustments Between Official and Black Market Exchange Rates in MENA Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 494-500.
    9. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2005. "Testing for two-regime threshold cointegration in the parallel and official markets for foreign currency in Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 665-682, July.
    10. Nelson Mark, 1998. "Fundamentals of the Real Dollar-Pound Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 98-14, Ohio State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Gabriel Bruneau & Kevin Moran, 2017. "Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(1), pages 72-93, February.
    12. Dreger, C. & Reimers, H.E., 2005. "Health Care Expenditures in OECD Countries: A Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(2), pages 5-20.
    13. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2007. "Long-Run Money Demand in the New EU Member States with Exchange Rate Effects," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 75-94, April.
    14. James B. Ang, 2008. "Are Financial Sector Policies Effective In Deepening The Malaysian Financial System?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 26(4), pages 623-635, October.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Beate Reszat & Ulrich Volz (ed.), Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    16. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
    17. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2005. "Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1512, CESifo.
    18. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2004. "Testing the monetary model of exchange rate determination: a closer look at panels," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 867-895, October.
    19. Christian Dreger & Hans-Eggert Reimers, 2006. "Consumption and disposable income in the EU countries: the role of wealth effects," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 245-254, September.
    20. Jithin P & Suresh Babu M, 2022. "Does foreign direct investments in financial services induce financial development? Lessons from emerging economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4399-4411, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    black market and official exchange rates; panel cointegration; impulse response functions;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.