IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-01243461.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Does long-run purchasing power parity hold in Eastern and Southern African countries? Evidence from panel data stationary tests with multiple structural breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Hoarau

    (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion)

Abstract

This study tests for the long-run purchasing power parity hypothesis for a panel of 17 African economies, all belonging to the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa, over the period 1970–2007. This assumption is considered both in its traditional view, that is, the reversion of the real exchange rate (RER) to a constant mean, and in the Balassa-Samuelson view, that is, the reversion of the RER to a constant trend. For this purpose, we use the new panel data stationary test advocated by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. that accounts for multiple structural breaks and cross-sectional dependence. Finally, our results give strong evidence for purchasing power parity when the Balassa-Samuelson version is considered. This finding supports the view that purchasing power parity is most likely to be found among high inflation less developed countries and non-CFA countries. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Hoarau, 2010. "Does long-run purchasing power parity hold in Eastern and Southern African countries? Evidence from panel data stationary tests with multiple structural breaks," Post-Print hal-01243461, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01243461
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.404
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate may be Stationary after all: Evidence from Non‐linear Unit‐root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 113-131, February.
    2. David O. Cushman, 2008. "Real exchange rates may have nonlinear trends," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 158-173.
    3. Joseph Kargbo, 2003. "Food prices and long-run purchasing power parity in Africa," Development Southern Africa, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 321-336.
    4. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-498, March.
    5. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    6. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis, 2007. "Does purchasing power parity hold in emerging markets? Evidence from a panel of black market exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 427-444.
    7. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    8. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    9. Joseph Kargbo, 2006. "Purchasing Power Parity and real exchange rate behaviour in Africa," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 169-183.
    10. Kalyoncu, Huseyin & Kalyoncu, Kahraman, 2008. "Purchasing power parity in OECD countries: Evidence from panel unit root," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 440-445, May.
    11. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Does PPP hold in African countries? Further evidence based on a highly dynamic non-linear (logistic) unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2453-2459.
    12. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Andreu Sansó, 2006. "A guide to the computation of stationarity tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 433-448, June.
    13. Corbae,Dean & Durlauf,Steven N. & Hansen,Bruce E. (ed.), 2006. "Econometric Theory and Practice," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521807234, January.
    14. Cerrato, Mario & Nicholas Sarantis, 2003. "Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 40, Royal Economic Society.
    15. Holmes, Mark J, 2000. "Does Purchasing Power Parity Hold in African Less Developed Countries? Evidence from a Panel Data Unit Root Test," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 9(1), pages 63-78, March.
    16. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    17. Nagayasu, Jun, 2002. "Does the Long-Run PPP Hypothesis Hold for Africa? Evidence from a Panel Cointegration Study," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(2), pages 181-187, April.
    18. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate may be Stationary after all: Evidence from Non‐linear Unit‐root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 113-131, February.
    19. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    20. Papell, David H. & Prodan, Ruxandra, 2006. "Additional Evidence of Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Restricted Structural Change," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1329-1349, August.
    21. Donggyu Sul & Peter C. B. Phillips & Chi‐Young Choi, 2005. "Prewhitening Bias in HAC Estimation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(4), pages 517-546, August.
    22. Oludele Akinloye Akinboade & Daniel Makina, 2006. "Mean reversion and structural breaks in real exchange rates: South African evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 347-358.
    23. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Kuo, Biing-Shen & Mikkola, Anne, 2001. "How Sure Are We about Purchasing Power Parity? Panel Evidence with the Null of Stationary Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 767-789, August.
    25. K. Hassanain, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity And Cross‐Sectional Dependency," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 238-257, June.
    26. Hegwood, Natalie D & Papell, David H, 1998. "Quasi Purchasing Power Parity," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-289, October.
    27. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    28. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Purchasing Power Parity under the Gold Standard," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 71(2), pages 302-313, October.
    29. Lee, Junsoo & Huang, Cliff J. & Shin, Yongcheol, 1997. "On stationary tests in the presence of structural breaks," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 165-172, August.
    30. Attila Hornok & Rolf Larsson, 2000. "The finite sample distribution of the KPSS test," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 108-121.
    31. Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "New Evidence on Real Exchange Rate Stationarity and Purchasing Power Parity in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 601-614, October.
    32. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:17:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. André Sapir & Jaime de Melo, 1991. "Trade theory and economic reform: North, South and East," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/8084, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    34. Alba, Joseph D. & Papell, David H., 2007. "Purchasing power parity and country characteristics: Evidence from panel data tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 240-251, May.
    35. Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre & Tomás del Barrio-Castro & Enrique López-Bazo, 2005. "Breaking the panels: An application to the GDP per capita," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 159-175, July.
    36. Mark Taylor, 2006. "Real exchange rates and Purchasing Power Parity: mean-reversion in economic thought," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1-2), pages 1-17.
    37. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 1998. "Purchasing Power Parities in Five East African Countries: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda," IMF Working Papers 1998/148, International Monetary Fund.
    38. Joseph M. Kargbo, 2004. "Purchasing Power Parity And Exchange Rate Policy Reforms In Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 72(2), pages 258-281, June.
    39. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    40. Sabate, Marcela & Gadea, Maria Dolores & Serrano, Jose Maria, 2003. "PPP and structural breaks. The peseta-sterling rate, 50 years of a floating regime," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 613-627, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fabien Candau & Michaël Goujon & Jean-François Hoarau & Serge Rey, 2014. "Real exchange rate and competitiveness of an EU's ultra-peripheral region: La Reunion Island," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 137, pages 1-21.
    2. Saint Kuttu, 2018. "Asymmetric mean reversion and volatility in African real exchange rates," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 575-590, July.
    3. E. N. Gyamfi & E. F. Appiah, 2019. "Further evidence on the validity of purchasing power parity in selected African countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 330-343, April.
    4. Gómez Aguirre Mario & Rodríguez Chávez José Carlos, 2013. "El efecto Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson. El caso de México," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(3), pages 121-147, julio-sep.
    5. Mario Gómez Aguirre & José Carlos A. Rodríguez Chávez, 2012. "Análisis de la paridad del poder de compra: evidencia empírica entre México y Estados Unidos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 169-207.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre, 2007. "Another Look at the Null of Stationary RealExchange Rates. Panel Data with Structural Breaks and Cross-section Dependence," IREA Working Papers 200710, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2007.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less‐Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, September.
    3. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Price level convergence, purchasing power parity and multiple structural breaks: An application to US cities," Working Papers XREAP2008-08, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jul 2008.
    4. Basher Syed A. & Carrion-i-Silvestre Josep Lluís, 2009. "Price Level Convergence, Purchasing Power Parity and Multiple Structural Breaks in Panel Data Analysis: An Application to U.S. Cities," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-38, April.
    5. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Evan Lau & Mudziviri T. Nziramasanga, 2010. "Purchasing Power Parity In African Countries: Evidence From Panel Suradf Test," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 78(1), pages 40-56, March.
    6. Josep Carrion-i-Silvestre & Vicente German-Soto, 2009. "Panel data stochastic convergence analysis of the Mexican regions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(2), pages 303-327, October.
    7. Mark Holmes & Jesús Otero & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2012. "PPP in OECD Countries: An Analysis of Real Exchange Rate Stationarity, Cross-Sectional Dependency and Structural Breaks," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 767-783, November.
    8. Chi-Wei Su & Tsangyao Chang & Yu-Shao Liu, 2012. "Revisiting purchasing power parity for African countries: with nonlinear panel unit-root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(25), pages 3263-3273, September.
    9. Syed A. Basher & Josep Lluis Carrión-i-Silvestre, 2008. "Deconstructing Shocks and Persistence in OECD Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers XREAP2008-06, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Jun 2008.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2008:i:21:p:1-5 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluis Carrion-i-Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2006. "New evidence of the real interest rate parity for OECD countries using panel unit root tests with breaks," Working Papers CREAP2006-14, Xarxa de Referència en Economia Aplicada (XREAP), revised Dec 2006.
    12. Jean-François Hoarau, 2008. "Testing PPP for Central American real exchange rates. Evidence from new panel data stationary tests with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(21), pages 1-5.
    13. Adiguzel, Ugur & Sahbaz, Ahmet & Ozcan, Ceyhun Can & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "The behavior of Turkish exchange rates: A panel data perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 177-185.
    14. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Kasim Mansur, 2019. "External Shocks, Structural Breaks And Unemployment Hysteresis In Selected Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 575-600, June.
    15. Paul Alagidede & George Tweneboah & Anokye M. Adam, 2008. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Convergence in the West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(3), pages 181-198, December.
    16. Evans, Paul & Kim, Ji Uk, 2011. "Stochastic convergence of the catch-up rate and multiple structural breaks in Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 260-263, June.
    17. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluis, 2005. "Health care expenditure and GDP: Are they broken stationary?," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 839-854, September.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Farhang Niroomand & Omid Ranjbar, 2020. "Fourier nonlinear quantile unit root test and PPP in Africa," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 451-481, October.
    19. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Nam, Kiseok, 2010. "Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-768, October.
    20. Tsangyao Chang & Gengnan Chiang & Yichun Zhang, 2009. "Is volume index of gdp per capita stationary in oecd countries? panel stationary tests with structural breaks," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(2), pages 588-598.
    21. M.Abimbola OYINLOLA & Luwatosin ADENIYI & Nd Festus O.EGWAIKHIDE*, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis in the Selected African Countries," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 21, pages 93-110.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01243461. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.