IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/inecon/v94y2014i1p169-176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange

Author

Listed:
  • Huett, Hannes
  • Krapf, Matthias
  • Uysal, S. Derya

Abstract

Using unique data from an internet-based foreign-exchange trading platform, we show that the black market efficiently incorporated public information on the state of the Belarusian economy during the Balance of Payments crisis of 2011. Between May and October 2011, the government repeatedly devalued the Belarusian ruble and eventually abandoned its fixed exchange rate regime. Measures derived from black market transaction data have significant predictive power for these devaluations. The significance of these black market measures survives even when we include standard macroeconomic indicators in our forecasting model. In line with standard economic theory, activity in the black market has dried up subsequently.

Suggested Citation

  • Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:94:y:2014:i:1:p:169-176
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199614000853
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.06.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
    2. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
    3. Richard Meese & Kenneth Rogoff, 1983. "The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 67-112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Schneider, Friedrich, 2005. "Shadow economies around the world: what do we really know?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 598-642, September.
    5. Michael Moore & Kate Phylaktis, 2000. "Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: some tests of dynamic behaviour," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-369.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2010. "Republic of Belarus: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2010/016, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Glynn, John & Perera, Nelson, 2007. "Unit Root Tests and Structural Breaks: A Survey with Applications = Contrastes de raíces unitarias y cambios estructurales: un estudio con aplicaciones," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 3(1), pages 63-79, June.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2008. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long‐run Equilibrium and Short‐run Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 401-412, August.
    10. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
    11. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    12. Julia Korosteleva, 2007. "Maximizing Seigniorage and Inflation Tax: The Case of Belarus," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 33-50, June.
    13. Friedrich Schneider, 2005. "Shadow Economies of 145 Countries all over the World: What Do We Really Know?," CREMA Working Paper Series 2005-13, Center for Research in Economics, Management and the Arts (CREMA).
    14. Andrei Shleifer & Daniel Treisman, 2005. "A Normal Country: Russia After Communism," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 151-174, Winter.
    15. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    16. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Jordan: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/119, International Monetary Fund.
    17. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Japan: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/208, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    19. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Suriname: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/281, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Kenneth Rogoff, 1998. "Blessing or curse? Foreign and underground demand for euro notes," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 13(26), pages 262-303.
    21. Andrei Shleifer, 2009. "The Age of Milton Friedman," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 123-135, March.
    22. John Dawson & Steven Millsaps & Mark Strazicich, 2007. "Trend breaks and non-stationarity in the Yugoslav black market for dollars, 1974-1987," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 43-51.
    23. Ickes, Barry W. & Ofer, Gur, 2006. "The political economy of structural change in Russia," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 409-434, June.
    24. Vedat Akgiray & Kursat Aydogan & G. Booth & John Hatem, 1989. "A causal analysis of black and official exchange rates: The turkish case," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 337-345, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gina Christelle Pieters, 2017. "Bitcoin Reveals Exchange Rate Manipulation and Detects Capital Controls," 2017 Papers ppi307, Job Market Papers.
    2. Huachen Li & Tiezheng Song, 2024. "Regime dependent dynamics of parallel and official exchange markets in China: evidence from cryptocurrency," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(41), pages 4952-4973, September.
    3. Gallais-Hamonno, Georges & Hoang, Thi-Hong-Van & Oosterlinck, Kim, 2015. "Informational efficiency of the clandestine and official gold markets in Paris," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 28-30.
    4. Karen Davtyan & Omar Elkaraksy, 2024. "Uncovering the Financial Effects of the Exchange Rate Regime Transition in Egypt," Working Papers wpdea2407, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona.
    5. Gina Pieters, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. Ibrahim A. Onour & Bruno S. Sergi, 2021. "The impact of a political shock on foreign exchange markets in a small and open economy: A dynamic modelling approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 137-152.
    7. Georges Gallais-Hamonno & Thi-hong-van Hoang & Kim Oosterlinck, 2016. "Price Formation on Clandestine Markets: The Case of the Paris Gold Market during WWII," Working Papers CEB 16-048, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    8. Georges Gallais‐Hamonno & Thi‐Hong‐Van Hoang & Kim Oosterlinck, 2019. "Price formation on clandestine markets: the case of the Paris gold market during the Second World War," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 72(3), pages 1048-1072, August.
    9. Liudmila Malyshava, 2018. "External Instability in Transition: Applying Minsky's Theory of Financial Fragility to International Markets," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_909, Levy Economics Institute.
    10. Onour, Ibrahim, 2020. "Modeling the impact of economic sanctions on a small open economy: A dynamic approach," MPRA Paper 116005, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ferit Kula & Alper Aslan & lhan zt rk, 2014. "Long Run Tendencies and Short Run Adjustments Between Official and Black Market Exchange Rates in MENA Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 494-500.
    2. Raquel Almeida Ramos, 2012. "Financial Flows and Exchange Rates: Challenges Faced by Developing Countries," Working Papers 97, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    3. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Expectations and the black market premium for foreign currency in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 667-677.
    4. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
    5. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
    6. Alberto Fuertes & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2019. "“Forecasting emerging market currencies: Are inflation expectations useful?”," IREA Working Papers 201918, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Oct 2019.
    7. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2010. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 125-173.
    8. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2013. "Origins and prospects of the Euro existential crisis," DEM Discussion Papers 2013/03, Department of Economics and Management.
    9. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
    10. Ali Trabelsi Karoui & Aida Kammoun, 2021. "Exchange Rate Determination: Mixed Microstructural and Macroeconomic Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 11(3), pages 89-106.
    11. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Koji Kubo, 2014. "Myanmar's non-resource export potential after the lifting of economic sanctions: a gravity model analysis," Asia-Pacific Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 21(1), pages 1-22, June.
    13. Phornchanok Cumperayot & Casper G. de Vries, 2006. "Large Swings in Currencies driven by Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-086/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    14. Friedrich Schneider & Andreas Buehn & Claudio E. Montenegro, 2011. "Shadow Economies All Over the World: New Estimates for 162 Countries from 1999 to 2007," Chapters, in: Friedrich Schneider (ed.), Handbook on the Shadow Economy, chapter 1, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Fabian Bornhorst & Mr. Ashoka Mody, 2012. "Tests of German Resilience," IMF Working Papers 2012/239, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Bathia, Deven & Demirer, Riza & Gupta, Rangan & Kotzé, Kevin, 2021. "Unemployment fluctuations and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over one and a half century of data," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    17. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Anne-Marie Brook, 2013. "Making fiscal policy more stabilising in the next upturn: Challenges and policy options," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 71-94, April.
    19. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Bekiros, Stelios & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "The multiscale causal dynamics of foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 282-305.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black market; FX market; Technological progress; Price setting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • P22 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:94:y:2014:i:1:p:169-176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.