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Does purchasing power parity hold in emerging markets? Evidence from a panel of black market exchange rates

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  • Mario Cerrato

    (Centre for International Capital Markets, London Metropolitan University, UK)

  • Nicholas Sarantis

    (Centre for International Capital Markets, London Metropolitan University, UK)

Abstract

We examine the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using a unique panel of monthly data on black market exchange rates for 34 emerging market economies. We apply a large number of recent heterogeneous panel unit root and cointegration tests. Panel unit root tests reject mean reversion in black market real exchange rates for most (but not all) emerging market economies. On the other hand, all panel cointegration tests provide strong evidence of cointegration between the nominal black market exchange rate and domestic and foreign prices for both individual countries and the full panel. Since we believe that the findings from unit root tests may be affected by the imposition of the joint symmetry and proportionality restriction due to trade restrictions and measurement errors, we test for such a restriction using likelihood ratio tests and find that it is strongly rejected. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis, 2007. "Does purchasing power parity hold in emerging markets? Evidence from a panel of black market exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(4), pages 427-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:12:y:2007:i:4:p:427-444
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.318
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Francois Hoarau, 2010. "Does long-run purchasing power parity hold in Eastern and Southern African countries? Evidence from panel data stationary tests with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 307-315.
    2. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2008. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long‐run Equilibrium and Short‐run Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 401-412, August.
    3. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, "undated". "Purchasing Power Parity Revisited," Working Papers 2003-20, FEDEA.
    4. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald Macdonald, 2010. "Three‐Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1447-1467, October.
    5. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," Working Papers 2009_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Feb 2009.
    6. Si Mohammed, Kamel & Chérif touil, Noreddine & Maliki, Samir, 2015. "An Empirical Test of Purchasing Power Parity of the Algerian Exchange Rate: Evidence from Panel Dynamic," MPRA Paper 75285, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Alper ASLAN, 2010. "The validity of PPP: evidence from Lagrange multiplier unit root tests for ASEAN countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1433-1443.
    8. Ritesh Kumar Mishra & Sanjay Sehgal, 2011. "Exchange rates and prices in purchasing power parity framework: Are bilateral real exchange rates stationary?," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(3), pages 274-286.
    9. Michael Morrison & Matías Fontenla, 2013. "Price convergence in an online virtual world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1053-1064, June.
    10. Ceyhun Can Ozcan & Ahmet Sahbaz & Ugur Ad?guzel & Saban Nazlioglu, 2014. "The Nature of Shocks to Turkish exchange rates: what panel approach says?," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401591, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    11. He, Huizhen & Ranjbar, Omid & Chang, Tsangyao, 2013. "Purchasing power parity in transition countries: Old wine with new bottle," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 24-32.
    12. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less‐Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, September.
    13. Mario Gómez Aguirre & José Carlos A. Rodríguez Chávez, 2012. "Análisis de la paridad del poder de compra: evidencia empírica entre México y Estados Unidos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 169-207.
    14. Adiguzel, Ugur & Sahbaz, Ahmet & Ozcan, Ceyhun Can & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "The behavior of Turkish exchange rates: A panel data perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 177-185.
    15. A. Oznur Umit, 2016. "Stationarity of Real Exchange Rates in the ¡°Fragile Five¡±: Analysis with Structural Breaks," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(4), pages 254-270, April.

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