IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eco/journ1/2014-03-5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long Run Tendencies and Short Run Adjustments Between Official and Black Market Exchange Rates in MENA Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ferit Kula

    (Erciyes University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 38039, Kayseri, Turkey.)

  • Alper Aslan

    (Nevsehir Haci Bektas Veli University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences,50300, Nevsehir, Turkey.)

  • lhan zt rk

    (Cag University, Faculty of Economics and Business, 33800, Mersin, Turkey.)

Abstract

This study makes an attempt to examine the long run relationship between the official and black market exchange rates using monthly data for a sample of 13 Middle East and Northern African (MENA) countries from 1970 to 1998. Using the Pool Mean Group framework, the article provides evidence on proportional long run relationship between black and official market exchange rates in sample countries. The positive common long run official exchange rates (OEX) elasticity is statistically significant and slightly greater than one. The hypothesis of portfolio balance model is confirmed, implying that there exists a proportional long run equilibrium relationship between official exchange rates and black market exchange rates. However, the short run dynamics remain heterogeneous across countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferit Kula & Alper Aslan & lhan zt rk, 2014. "Long Run Tendencies and Short Run Adjustments Between Official and Black Market Exchange Rates in MENA Countries," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 494-500.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-03-5
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/download/833/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijefi/article/view/833/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Booth, G. Geoffrey & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1991. "Long-run dynamics of black and official exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 392-405, September.
    2. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    3. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2007. "The Relationship Between The Black Market And Official Exchange Rates: An Examination Of Long‐Run Dynamics In India," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 283-294, May.
    4. Michael Moore & Kate Phylaktis, 2000. "Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: some tests of dynamic behaviour," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-369.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    6. Ali Kutan, 1998. "Dynamics of parallel and official exchange rates: The experience of hungary," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 26(1), pages 54-65, March.
    7. Gupta, Sanjeev, 1981. "A Note on the Efficiency of Black Markets in Foreign Currencies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(3), pages 705-710, June.
    8. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
    9. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Mario Cerrato, 2008. "Black Market and Official Exchange Rates: Long‐run Equilibrium and Short‐run Dynamics," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 401-412, August.
    10. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2001. "Nonlinearities in the black market zloty-dollar exchange rate: some further evidence," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 209-220.
    11. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio SimÅes, 1983. "The Black Market for Dollars in Brazil," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 98(1), pages 25-40.
    12. Speight, Alan E. H. & McMillan, David G., 2001. "Volatility spillovers in East European black-market exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 367-378, June.
    13. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    15. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2010. "Black and official exchange rates in Morocco: an analysis of their long-run behaviour and short-run dynamics (1974-1992)," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3481-3490.
    16. G. S. Maddala & Shaowen Wu, 1999. "A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 631-652, November.
    17. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Vedat Akgiray & Kursat Aydogan & G. Booth & John Hatem, 1989. "A causal analysis of black and official exchange rates: The turkish case," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 125(2), pages 337-345, June.
    19. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 1993. "Losers and Winners in Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 4341, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Miteza, Ilir & Nasir, A. B. M., 2002. "The long-run relation between black market and official exchange rates: evidence from panel cointegration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 397-404, August.
    21. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:631-52 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gina Pieters, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Ibrahim A. Onour & Bruno S. Sergi, 2021. "The impact of a political shock on foreign exchange markets in a small and open economy: A dynamic modelling approach," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(3), pages 137-152.
    3. Minh Tam Bui, 2018. "Causality in Vietnam’s Parallel Exchange Rate System during 2005–2011: Policy Implications for Macroeconomic Stability," Economies, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-20, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Huett, Hannes & Krapf, Matthias & Uysal, S. Derya, 2014. "Price dynamics in the Belarusian black market for foreign exchange," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 169-176.
    2. Gina Pieters, 2016. "Does bitcoin reveal new information about exchange rates and financial integration?," Globalization Institute Working Papers 292, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2005. "Long-run dynamics of official and black-market exchange rates in Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 219-237, February.
    4. Sovannroeun Samreth, 2010. "A Note on Short-Run and Long-Run Relationships between Parallel and Official Exchange Rates: The Case of Cambodia," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 30(2), pages 1044-1053.
    5. BIKAI, J. Landry & OWOUNDI F., Ferdinand, 2016. "Does the choice of an exchange rate regime limits exchange rate misalignments? The example of sub-Saharan African countries," MPRA Paper 89110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. In Choi, 2012. "Panel Cointegration," Working Papers 1208, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    7. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2001. "Black and official exchange rates in Greece: an analysis of their long-run dynamics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 295-314, July.
    8. Ashworth, John & Evans, Lynne & Teriba, Ayo, 1999. "Structural breaks in parallel markets?: the case of Nigeria, 1980-1993," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 255-264, February.
    9. Panayiotis Diamandis & Georgios Kouretas & Leonidas Zarangas, 2005. "Expectations and the black market premium for foreign currency in Greece," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 667-677.
    10. Österholm, Pär, 2004. "Estimating the Relationship between Age Structure and GDP in the OECD Using Panel Cointegration Methods," Working Paper Series 2004:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    11. Thi Hong Hanh Pham, 2018. "Liquidity and exchange rate volatility," Working Papers halshs-01708633, HAL.
    12. Michael Moore & Kate Phylaktis, 2000. "Black and official exchange rates in the Pacific Basin: some tests of dynamic behaviour," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 361-369.
    13. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Papież, Monika & Śmiech, Sławomir, 2014. "Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals in CEE countries: Evidence from a panel approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 148-159.
    14. Raffaello Bronzini & Paolo Piselli, 2006. "Determinants of long-run regional productivity: the role of R&D, human capital and public infrastructure," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 597, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 176-188, June.
    16. José Abraham López Machuca & Jorge Eduardo Mendoza Cota, 2017. "Salarios, desempleo y productividad laboral en la industria manufacturera mexicana. (Wage, Unemployment and Labor Productivity in the Mexican Manufacturing Industry)," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 185-228, October.
    17. repec:zbw:rwirep:0557 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Polemis, Michail & Fotis, Panagiotis, 2011. "Gasoline price asymmetries in the Euro Zone," MPRA Paper 32755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. repec:got:cegedp:84 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Stacie Beck & Cagay Coskuner, 2007. "Tax Effects on the Real Exchange Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(5), pages 854-868, November.
    21. Milas, Costas & Otero, Jesus, 2003. "Modelling official and parallel exchange rates in Colombia under alternative regimes: a non-linear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 165-179, January.
    22. Bernstein, Ronald & Madlener, Reinhard, 2011. "Responsiveness of Residential Electricity Demand in OECD Countries: A Panel Cointegation and Causality Analysis," FCN Working Papers 8/2011, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black market exchange rate; official exchange rates; Panel data; Panel cointegration; MENA countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eco:journ1:2014-03-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ilhan Ozturk (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.econjournals.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.