IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/uerssr/278025.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Conditional Approach To Projecting Farm Structure

Author

Listed:
  • Smith, Matthew G.

Abstract

The traditional approach to projecting the distribution of farms by size uses a Markov model with stationary (constant) transition probabilities. While a useful tool for extrapolation of current trends, the stationary Markov approach cannot model the impacts on farm structure of varying economic and social causal forces. Data are now available for developing Markov models with nonstationary transition probabilities. A simple nonstationary Markov model of U.S. farm structure is described and estimated, and its performance in predicting actual changes in farm numbers and sizes through 1986 is assessed. Further issues in the development of conditional projections of farm structure are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Smith, Matthew G., 1988. "A Conditional Approach To Projecting Farm Structure," Staff Reports 278025, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278025
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.278025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/278025/files/ers-report-347.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.278025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ching, C. T. K. & Davulis, J. P. & Frick, G. E., 1974. "An Evaluation Of Different Ways Of Projecting Farm Size Distributions," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-10, May.
    2. Edwards, Clark & Smith, Matthew G. & Peterson, R. Neal, 1985. "The Changing Distribution of Farms by Size: A Markov Analysis," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 37(4), pages 1-16.
    3. Kislev, Yoav & Peterson, Willis, 1982. "Prices, Technology, and Farm Size," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(3), pages 578-595, June.
    4. M. C. Hallberg, 1969. "Projecting the Size Distribution of Agricultural Firms—An Application of a Markov Process with Non-Stationary Transition Probabilities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 289-302.
    5. T. C. Lee & G. G. Judge & T. Takayama, 1965. "On Estimating the Transition Probabilities of a Markov Process," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 47(3), pages 742-762.
    6. Lin, William W. & Coffman, George & Penn, J. B., 1980. "U.S. Farm Numbers, Sizes, and Related Structural Dimensions: Projections to Year 2000," Technical Bulletins 157730, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Ching, C. T. K. & Davulis, J. P. & Frick, G. E., 1974. "An Evaluation Of Different Ways Of Projecting Farm Size Distributions," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, May.
    8. Krenz, Ronald D., 1964. "Projection of Farm Numbers for North Dakota With Markov Chains," Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, vol. 16(3), pages 1-7, July.
    9. Dadkhah, Kamran M, 1984. "Confidence Interval for Predictions from a Logarithmic Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(3), pages 527-528, August.
    10. Bernard F. Stanton & Lauri Kettunen, 1967. "Potential Entrants and Projections in Markov Process Analysis," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 633-642.
    11. Stavins, R.N. & Stanton, B.F., 1980. "Using Markov Models to Predict the Size Distribution of Dairy Farms, New York State, 1968-1985," Research Bulletins 181522, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gale, H. Frederick, Jr., 1990. "Econometric Analysis Of Farmer Participation In The Dairy Termination Program In North Carolina And Virginia," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-9, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Piet, Laurent, 2008. "The evolution of farm size distribution: revisiting the Markov chain model," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44269, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Alexander Gocht & Norbert Röder & Sebastian Neuenfeldt & Hugo Storm & Thomas Heckelei, 2012. "Modelling farm structural change: A feasibility study for ex-post modelling utilizing FADN and FSS data in Germany and developing an ex-ante forecast module for the CAPRI farm type layer baseline," JRC Research Reports JRC75524, Joint Research Centre.
    3. Stavins, R. N. & Stanton, B. F., 1980. "Alternative Procedures For Estimating The Size Distribution Of Farms," Journal of the Northeastern Agricultural Economics Council, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-6, October.
    4. Dent, Warren Thomas & Ballintine, Richard, 1971. "A Review Of The Estimation Of Transition Probabilities In Markov Chains," Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 15(2), pages 1-13, August.
    5. Stavins, R. N. & Stanton, B. F., 1980. "Alternative Procedures For Estimating The Size Distribution Of Farms," Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 1-6, October.
    6. Ethridge, Don E. & Roy, Sujit K. & Myers, David W., 1983. "Changes in the Structure of the Texas High Plains Cotton Ginning Industry, 1967-1999," Archive 259788, Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    7. Stanton, B.F. & Olson, K.D., 1990. "The Impacts Of Structural Change And The Future Of American Agriculture," 1990 Conference, January 6-9, Albuquerque, New Mexico 260184, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    8. Legrand D. F, Saint-Cyr, 2017. "Farm heterogeneity and agricultural policy impacts on size dynamics: evidence from France," Working Papers SMART 17-04, INRAE UMR SMART.
    9. Burnham, Bruce O., 1973. "Markov Intertemporal Land Use Simulation Model," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 5(1), pages 1-6, July.
    10. Nobe, Kenneth C. & Fruin, Jerry E. & Skold, Melvin D. & Trock, Warren L., 1986. "The Agricultural Crisis in Colorado: Causes, Future Prospects and State-Level Response Options," Research Reports 316675, Colorado State University, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    11. Stanton, B.F., 1989. "Changes In Farm Size And Structure In American Agriculture In The Twentieth Century," 1989 Conference, January 7-10, Tucson, Arizona 260156, Regional Research Committe NC-181: Determinants of Farm Size and Structure.
    12. Stanton, B.F., 1989. "Changes in Farm Size and Structure in American Agriculture in the Twentieth Century," Staff Papers 197561, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    13. Legrand D. F. Saint-Cyr & Laurent Piet, 2017. "Movers and stayers in the farming sector: accounting for unobserved heterogeneity in structural change," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(4), pages 777-795, August.
    14. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Accounting for farm heterogeneity in the assessment of agricultural policy impacts on structural change," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts 235778, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Ahearn, Mary Clare & Yee, Jet & Huffman, Wallace E., 2002. "The Impact Of Government Policies On Agricultural Productivity And Structure: Preliminary Results," 2002 Annual meeting, July 28-31, Long Beach, CA 19865, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    16. Libbin, James D., 1982. "Projections of US farm numbers by Markov processes," ISU General Staff Papers 198201010800008508, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    17. Saint-Cyr, Legrand D. F., 2016. "Farm segmentation and agricultural policy impacts on structural change: evidence from France," 149th Seminar, October 27-28, 2016, Rennes, France 244789, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    18. Madior Fall & Laurent Piet & Muriel Roger, 2010. "Trends in the French commercial farm population," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 91(3), pages 279-295.
    19. MacDonald, James M. & Hoppe, Robert A. & Banker, David E., 2004. "The Evolution of Structural Change in the U.S. Farm Sector," IAPRAP\IATRC Summer Symposium, Adjusting to Domestic and International Agricultural Reform in Industrial Countries, June 6-7, 2004, Philadelphia, PA, 15759, International Agricultural Policy Reform and Adjustment Project (IAPRAP).
    20. Stokes, Jeffrey R., 2006. "Entry, Exit, and Structural Change in Pennsylvania's Dairy Sector," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 1-17, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:uerssr:278025. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ersgvus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.