Milk Marketing Order Winners and Losers

Do milk marketing orders affect various demographic groups differently? To answer this question, we use supermarket scanner data to estimate an incomplete demand system for dairy products. Based on these estimates, we simulate substitution effects among dairy products and the welfare impacts of price changes resulting from changes in milk marketing orders for various consumer groups. While we find little difference in own- and cross-price substitution elasticities of demand, the welfare effects of price changes vary substantially across demographic groups, with some losing and others winning from this government program. Families with young children suffer from marketing orders, while wealthier childless couples benefit. Additionally, we find that households with lower incomes pay a larger percentage of their income due to marketing orders than those with higher income levels.