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Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security

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  • Daniel Harenberg
  • Ludwig, Alexander

    (Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA))

Abstract

We ask whether a pay-as-you-go financed social security system is welfare improving in an economy with idiosyncratic productivity and aggregate business cycle risk. We show analytically that the whole welfare benefit from joint insurance against both risks is greater than the sum of benefits from insurance against the isolated risk components. One reason is the convexity of the welfare gain in total risk. The other reason is a direct risk interaction which amplifies the utility losses from consumption risk. We proceed with a quantitative evaluation of social security's welfare effects. We find that introducing an unconditional minimum pension leads to substantial welfare gains in expectation, even net of the welfare losses from crowding out. About 60% of the welfare gains would be missing when simply summing up the isolated benefits.
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  • Daniel Harenberg & Ludwig, Alexander, 2015. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Aggregate Risk, and the Welfare Effects of Social Security," MEA discussion paper series 201403, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    • Handle: RePEc:mea:meawpa:201403
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ludwig, Alexander, 2016. "Das Deutsche Rentensystem: Thesen zur derzeitigen Diskussion um "Umkehr"-Reformen," SAFE White Paper Series 40, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    3. Geppert, Christian & Ludwig, Alexander & Abiry, Raphael, 1970. "Secular Stagnation? Growth, Asset Returns and Welfare in the Next Decades: First Results," MEA discussion paper series 201605, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    4. Daniel Harenberg & Alexander Ludwig, 2015. "Social security in an analytically tractable overlapping generations model with aggregate and idiosyncratic risks," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 579-603, August.
    5. Ivo Bakota, 2023. "Market Clearing and Krusell-Smith Algorithm in an Economy with Multiple Assets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 62(3), pages 1007-1045, October.
    6. Arapakis, K., French, E. & French, E., 2023. "Retirement Policy in a Post-Covid World," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2376, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Christopher Busch & Alexander Ludwig, 2024. "Higher‐Order Income Risk Over The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(3), pages 1105-1131, August.
    8. Xu, Shaofeng, 2016. "On the welfare cost of rare housing disasters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 301-318.
    9. Antoine Bommier & Daniel Harenberg & François Le Grand & Cormac O'Dea, 2020. "Recursive Preferences, the Value of Life, and Household Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2231, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. Erin Cottle Hunt & Frank N. Caliendo, 2022. "Social security and risk sharing: A survey of four decades of economic analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1591-1609, December.
    11. Aleksandra Kolasa, 2022. "The long-term impact of quasi-universal transfers to older households," Working Papers 2022-28, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    12. Makarski, Krzysztof & Tyrowicz, Joanna & Komada, Oliwia, 2021. "Efficiency versus Insurance: Capital Income Taxation and Privatizing Social Security," IZA Discussion Papers 14805, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ludwig, Alexander & Geppert, Christian & Abiry, Raphael, 2016. "Secular Stagnation? Growth, Asset Returns and Welfare in the Next Decades," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145764, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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