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Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent OLG Economy with an Aging Population

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  • Shinichi Nishiyama

Abstract

This paper incorporates the aging population projected by the U.S. Social Security Administration to a heterogeneous-agent OLG model with idiosyncratic wage shocks and analyzes its effects on individual households, the government budget, and the overall economy. The fiscal gap caused by the demographic change is 2.94% of GDP under the intermediate projection. The effect of the aging population is large by itself and depends significantly on how the government finances the cost of the demographic change. There is a strong trade-off between efficiency and equity, and this paper quantitatively assesses the pros and cons of stylized fiscal reform plans.

Suggested Citation

  • Shinichi Nishiyama, 2015. "Fiscal Policy Effects in a Heterogeneous-Agent OLG Economy with an Aging Population," Working Papers 89793613, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:lan:wpaper:89793613
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhao, Weimin & Chen, Na, 2024. "Does old-age security promote rural residents' consumption? A decomposition based on contribution and replacement rates," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 817-830.
    3. Christine Ma & Chung Tran, 2016. "Fiscal Space under Demographic Shift," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-642, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    4. Diego d’Andria & Jason DeBacker & Richard W. Evans & Jonathan Pycroft & Wouter van der Wielen & Magdalena Zachlod-Jelec, 2020. "EDGE-M3: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Micro-Macro Model for the EU Member States," JRC Working Papers on Taxation & Structural Reforms 2020-03, Joint Research Centre.
    5. Jiang, Yunyun & Zhao, Tianhao & Zheng, Haitao, 2021. "Population aging and its effects on the gap of urban public health insurance in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Moore, Rachel & Pecoraro, Brandon, 2019. "Modeling the Internal Revenue Code in a heterogeneous-agent framework: An application to TCJA," MPRA Paper 93110, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    8. Morita, Hiroshi, 2020. "Fiscal multipliers in the most aged country: Empirical evidence and theoretical interpretation," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-100, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    9. Li, Yue, 2018. "Paradoxical effects of increasing the normal retirement age: A prospective evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 512-527.
    10. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2022. "Sustainable and equitable pensions with means testing in aging economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    11. Freddy Heylen & Pieter Van Rymenant & Brecht Boone & Tim Buyse, 2016. "On The Possibility And Driving Forces Of Secular Stagnation - A General Equilibrium Analysis Applied To Belgium -," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 16/919, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    12. Jianguo Zhao & Lei Zhang, 2023. "Fiscal Expenditure Efficiency Measurement and Its Convergence Analysis on Aging Undertakings in China: Based on a Global Super-Efficiency Slacks-Based Measure Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, January.
    13. Jung, Juergen & Tran, Chung & Chambers, Matthew, 2017. "Aging and health financing in the U.S.: A general equilibrium analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 428-462.
    14. Hauser, Luisa-Marie & Schlag, Carsten-Henning & Wolf, André, 2020. "Demographic change in Switzerland: Impacts on economic growth in an Overlapping Generations Model," HWWI Research Papers 191, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    15. Phitawat Poonpolkul, 2023. "Age-Dependent Risk Aversion: Re-evaluating Fiscal Policy Impacts of Population Aging," PIER Discussion Papers 198, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Phitawat Poonpolkul & Ponpoje Porapakkarm & Nada Wasi, 2024. "Aging, inadequacy, and fiscal constraint: The case of Thailand," International Studies of Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(1), pages 35-67, March.
    17. Morita, Hiroshi, 2022. "On the relationship between fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan: Theory and empirics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Rachel Moore & Brandon Pecoraro, 2021. "A Tale of Two Bases: Progressive Taxation of Capital and Labor Income," Public Finance Review, , vol. 49(3), pages 335-391, May.
    19. Poonpolkul, Phitawat, 2023. "Age-dependent risk aversion: Re-evaluating fiscal policy impacts of population aging," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    20. Bahnsen, Lewe & Fetzer, Stefan & Franke, Fabian & Hagist, Christian, 2020. "Gone with the windfall – Germany's Second LTC Strengthening Act and its intergenerational implications," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic general equilibrium; heterogeneous agents; overlapping generations; aging population; fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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