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Propagation and Smoothing of Shocks in Alternative Social Security Systems

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  • Alan Auerbach
  • Lorenz Kueng
  • Ronald Lee

Abstract

Even with well-developed capital markets, there is no private market mechanism for trading between current and future generations, so a potential role for public old-age pension systems is to spread economic and demographic shocks among different generations. This paper evaluates the smoothing and propagation of shocks of three pay-as-you-go public pension schemes, based on the actual U.S. and German systems, which vary in the extent to which they rely on tax adjustments versus benefit adjustments to provide annual cash-flow budget balance. Modifying the Auerbach-Kotlikoff (1987) dynamic general-equilibrium overlapping generations model to incorporate realistic patterns of fertility and mortality and shocks to productivity, fertility and mortality, we evaluate the effectiveness of the three public pension systems at spreading the effects of such shocks. We find that the systems, particularly those that rely to some extent on tax adjustments, are effective at spreading fertility and mortality shocks, but that this is not the case for productivity shocks, for which the pension systems actually tend to concentrate the economic impact. These results suggest that both system design and the source of shocks are important factors in determining the potential of public pension arrangements to spread the burden of shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan Auerbach & Lorenz Kueng & Ronald Lee, 2013. "Propagation and Smoothing of Shocks in Alternative Social Security Systems," NBER Working Papers 19137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19137
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    2. Lassila, Jukka, 2018. "Aggregate Risks, Intergenerational Risk-Sharing and Fiscal Sustainability in the Finnish Earnings-Related Pension System," ETLA Working Papers 57, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Oliwia Komada, 2023. "Raising America's future: search for optimal child-related transfers," GRAPE Working Papers 84, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H22 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Incidence
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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