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Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system

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  • Schön, Matthias

Abstract

This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example, react to changes in the statutory pension system, such as the retirement age or the replacement rate. Changes in households' behaviour, in turn, impact on macroeconomic developments and public finances. One approach to parametrically reform the pension system would be linking (indexing) the retirement age systematically to increasing life expectancy. The model shows that the resulting increase in employment would also bolster social security contributions and taxes. Moreover, with a rising retirement age and the associated longer periods of work, pension entitlements would increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Schön, Matthias, 2020. "Long-term outlook for the German statutory pension system," Discussion Papers 22/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:222020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Matthias Schön, 2023. "Demographic change and the rate of return in pay-as-you-go pension systems," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1799-1827, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Change; Pension System; OLG Models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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