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Sustainable electricity supply for small off-grid communities in Colombia: A system dynamics approach

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  • Garces, Estefany
  • Franco, Carlos J.
  • Tomei, Julia
  • Dyner, Isaac

Abstract

Colombia, like many other low and middle-income countries, faces an electricity access deficit. Even where access is available, many off-grid communities are only provided with a few hours of service, typically using diesel, which is expensive and polluting. Using a system dynamics model, this paper investigates how a sustainable and durable electricity supply can be provided in off-grid communities in Colombia. The scenarios examined draw on two government funds that have been established to: deliver the infrastructure and provide subsidies for electricity supply. The results demonstrate that a transition from diesel to renewables is not only possible but also economically viable and desirable. The simulations also show that in order to make the best use of limited government funding for electrification, the transition from diesel to renewables should begin as soon as possible and be accompanied by a zero-diesel policy by 2040. Furthermore, the model highlights that electricity systems should be designed to enable gradual growth in demand – driven by socio-economic development and productive uses. Given the imperative to provide a sustainable and durable electricity supply to off-grid communities, this paper provides insights into how this can be achieved while delivering clear benefits for users, utilities and the government.

Suggested Citation

  • Garces, Estefany & Franco, Carlos J. & Tomei, Julia & Dyner, Isaac, 2023. "Sustainable electricity supply for small off-grid communities in Colombia: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:172:y:2023:i:c:s030142152200533x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113314
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    2. Christian Manuel Moreno Rocha & Jorge D. Pertuz Ortiz & Neyder A. Rodriguez Ibanez, 2023. "A Diffuse Analysis Based on Analytical Processes to Prioritize Barriers in the Development of Renewable Energy Technologies in Alignment with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: Evidence," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 481-195, July.
    3. Dan Yu & Caihong Zhang & Siyi Wang & Lan Zhang, 2023. "Evolutionary Game and Simulation Analysis of Power Plant and Government Behavior Strategies in the Coupled Power Generation Industry of Agricultural and Forestry Biomass and Coal," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, February.

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