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Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: A cognitive style framework

Author

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  • Franco, L. Alberto
  • Meadows, Maureen
  • Armstrong, Steven J.

Abstract

In recent years, scenario planning has enjoyed wide acceptance among practitioners and academics as a decision support aid in the strategy formulation process. Although different approaches to scenario planning are possible, most of them are usually deployed in a group workshop format and led by a facilitator. This work setting for scenario planning activity has led managerial cognition scholars to argue that the cognitive diversity of the workshop participants is likely to be a critical determinant of the effectiveness of scenario planning interventions. The purpose of this paper is thus to explore this proposition further, by articulating a theoretical framework to inform the investigation of the role of cognitive style in scenario planning interventions. Specifically, the framework highlights the potential impact of individual differences in ways of perceiving and judging on participants' observed behaviours within the scenario planning workshops. The paper ends with a discussion of the implications of our framework for research and practice of scenario planning workshops.

Suggested Citation

  • Franco, L. Alberto & Meadows, Maureen & Armstrong, Steven J., 2013. "Exploring individual differences in scenario planning workshops: A cognitive style framework," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(4), pages 723-734.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:80:y:2013:i:4:p:723-734
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.02.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Alfonso Ávila-Robinson & Shintaro Sengoku, 2017. "Tracing the knowledge-building dynamics in new stem cell technologies through techno-scientific networks," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 112(3), pages 1691-1720, September.
    2. Robinson, Stewart & Kotiadis, Kathy, 2016. "Can involving clients in simulation studies help them solve their future problems? A transfer of learning experimentAuthor-Name: Monks, Thomas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 919-930.
    3. Wright, George & Cairns, George & O'Brien, Frances A. & Goodwin, Paul, 2019. "Scenario analysis to support decision making in addressing wicked problems: Pitfalls and potential," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 278(1), pages 3-19.
    4. Franco, L. Alberto & Hämäläinen, Raimo P., 2016. "Behavioural operational research: Returning to the roots of the OR profession," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(3), pages 791-795.
    5. Gary Bowman & R. Bradley MacKay, 2020. "Scenario planning as strategic activity: A practice‐orientated approach," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 2(3-4), September.
    6. Kayser, Victoria & Shala, Erduana, 2020. "Scenario development using web mining for outlining technology futures," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    7. Cairns, George & Wright, George & Fairbrother, Peter, 2016. "Promoting articulated action from diverse stakeholders in response to public policy scenarios: A case analysis of the use of ‘scenario improvisation’ method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 97-108.
    8. Dufva, Mikko & Ahlqvist, Toni, 2015. "Knowledge creation dynamics in foresight: A knowledge typology and exploratory method to analyse foresight workshops," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 251-268.
    9. Ramboarison-Lalao, Lovanirina & Gannouni, Kais, 2019. "Liberated firm, a leverage of well-being and technological change? A prospective study based on the scenario method," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 129-139.
    10. Stoyanov, Slavi & Jablokow, Kathryn & Rosas, Scott R. & Wopereis, Iwan G.J.H. & Kirschner, Paul A., 2017. "Concept mapping—An effective method for identifying diversity and congruity in cognitive style," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 238-244.
    11. Sophie Hooge & Albert David, 2014. "What makes an efficient theme for a creativity session?," Post-Print hal-00987220, HAL.
    12. Sophia El Kerdini & Sophie Hooge, 2013. "Can strategic foresight and creativity tools be combined? Structuring a conceptual framework for collective exploration of the unknown," Post-Print hal-00824348, HAL.
    13. Mathijs Vliet & Kasper Kok, 2015. "Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 43-74, January.
    14. Favato, Giampiero & Vecchiato, Riccardo, 2017. "Embedding real options in scenario planning: A new methodological approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 135-149.
    15. O'Brien, Frances A. & Meadows, Maureen & Griffiths, Sam, 2017. "Serialisation and the use of Twitter: Keeping the conversation alive in public policy scenario projects," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 26-40.
    16. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-00824348 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Ramirez, R. & Bhatti, Y. & Tapinos, E., 2020. "Exploring how experience and learning curves decrease the time invested in scenario planning interventions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Hussain, M. & Tapinos, E. & Knight, L., 2017. "Scenario-driven roadmapping for technology foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 160-177.
    19. Bourmistrov, Anatoli & Åmo, Bjørn Willy, 2022. "Creativity, proactivity, and foresight," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    20. Martin Kunc, 2024. "Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), March.
    21. Megan M. Crawford & Eoin Plant‐O'Toole, 2023. "A review of strategic planning for dynamic supply chains: Preparing for uncertainty using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 5(3-4), September.
    22. Aggestam, Filip & Wolfslehner, Bernhard, 2018. "Deconstructing a complex future: Scenario development and implications for the forest-based sector," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 21-26.
    23. Bowman, Gary & Parks, Ryan W., 2024. "Between episodes of strategy: Sociomateriality, sensemaking, and dysfunction in a scenario planning process," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).

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