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Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed

Author

Listed:
  • Ike Sari Astuti

    (University of Georgia
    Universitas Negeri Malang)

  • Kamalakanta Sahoo

    (University of Georgia
    United States Forest Service)

  • Adam Milewski

    (University of Georgia)

  • Deepak R. Mishra

    (University of Georgia)

Abstract

Upper-Brantas watershed in East Java, Indonesia, is a tropical watershed experiencing rapid landscape change, a phenomenon typical to developing countries. This study demonstrates the impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) changes on surface runoff in a tropical, urbanized, and data scarce watershed. The LULC changes were quantified between 1995 and 2015 and their impact on the hydrological processes was analyzed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. During the study period, the watershed experienced an increase in settlement and dryland agriculture, and a decrease in the forest, rice field, and sugarcane plantation. The SWAT model results for the calibration (2003–2008) and validation (2009–2013) periods matched observed values [R2 > 0.91 and NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency) >0.91]. In the long-term, the model predicted changes in runoff (+8%), water yield (+0.28%), groundwater (−1.8%), and evapotranspiration (−1.15%) due to changes in LULC. LULC changes showed a linear relationship with runoff generation, and the most significant factors affecting surface runoff were changes in the forest, agriculture, and settlements. Increasing urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural intensification will increase runoff which in turn will enhance the flow of nutrients and sediments into the water bodies.

Suggested Citation

  • Ike Sari Astuti & Kamalakanta Sahoo & Adam Milewski & Deepak R. Mishra, 2019. "Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4087-4103, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:12:d:10.1007_s11269-019-02320-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02320-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mohamad Fulazzaky, 2009. "Water Quality Evaluation System to Assess the Brantas River Water," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(14), pages 3019-3033, November.
    2. Gassman, Philip W. & Reyes, Manuel R. & Green, Colleen H. & Arnold, Jeffrey G., 2007. "The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001027, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    3. Wiwandari Handayani, 2013. "Rural-Urban Transition in Central Java: Population and Economic Structural Changes Based on Cluster Analysis," Land, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, August.
    4. Rutten, Martine & van Dijk, Michiel & van Rooij, Wilbert & Hilderink, Henk, 2014. "Land Use Dynamics, Climate Change, and Food Security in Vietnam: A Global-to-local Modeling Approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-46.
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