IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v37y2023i10d10.1007_s11269-023-03545-6.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model

Author

Listed:
  • Maryam Abbaszadeh

    (University of Hormozgan)

  • Ommolbanin Bazrafshan

    (University of Hormozgan)

  • Rasool Mahdavi

    (University of Hormozgan)

  • Elham Rafiei Sardooi

    (University of Jiroft)

  • Sajad Jamshidi

    (Purdue University)

Abstract

The hydrological processes in watersheds can be modified by changes in climate and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC), leading to significant alterations in precipitation patterns, evaporation rates, and stream flow. Therefore, it is crucial to examine how these changes in climate and LULC will impact future hydrological responses, especially considering the growing water demand and agricultural activities. In this study, we first investigated the future climatic conditions of the Minab River Basin, Iran, by considering three CMIP6 scenarios (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios) from the CanESM5 model during 2021–2050 and 2051–2080. Next, the LULC maps of the watershed during 2035 and 2065 were projected, and the individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate on streamflow and evapotranspiration (ET) of the basin were evaluated using the SWAT model. The future precipitation and minimum and maximum temperature of the region were projected to increase up to 88%, 21%, and 12%, respectively, compared to the baseline period (1989–2014). According to our findings, it is projected that future alterations in climate and LULC will lead to a rise in evapotranspiration (ET), with potential increases of up to 12.8% solely due to climate changes and 2–6% attributable to LULC changes compared to the baseline period. Furthermore, the changes in LULC are expected to cause a decline in streamflow ranging from 2–11%. The impact of climate on streamflow, however, exhibited temporal variations and was influenced by the severity of future warming, resulting in diverse impacts across different climate scenarios. The seasonal and annual impacts resulting from LULC and climate and their implications for the region are discussed in this study.

Suggested Citation

  • Maryam Abbaszadeh & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Rasool Mahdavi & Elham Rafiei Sardooi & Sajad Jamshidi, 2023. "Modeling Future Hydrological Characteristics Based on Land Use/Land Cover and Climate Changes Using the SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(10), pages 4177-4194, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03545-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-023-03545-6
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-023-03545-6
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-023-03545-6?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brij Kishor Pandey & Deepak Khare & Akiyuki Kawasaki & Prabhash K. Mishra, 2019. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Blue and Green Water by Coupling of Representative CMIP5 Climate Models with Physical Based Hydrological Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(1), pages 141-158, January.
    2. G. P. Tsakiris & D. P. Loucks, 2023. "Adaptive Water Resources Management Under Climate Change: An Introduction," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2221-2233, May.
    3. Ling Zhang & Zhuotong Nan & Yi Xu & Shuo Li, 2016. "Hydrological Impacts of Land Use Change and Climate Variability in the Headwater Region of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(6), pages 1-25, June.
    4. Bhumika Uniyal & Madan Jha & Arbind Verma, 2015. "Assessing Climate Change Impact on Water Balance Components of a River Basin Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(13), pages 4767-4785, October.
    5. S. Eisner & M. Flörke & A. Chamorro & P. Daggupati & C. Donnelly & J. Huang & Y. Hundecha & H. Koch & A. Kalugin & I. Krylenko & V. Mishra & M. Piniewski & L. Samaniego & O. Seidou & M. Wallner & V. K, 2017. "An ensemble analysis of climate change impacts on streamflow seasonality across 11 large river basins," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(3), pages 401-417, April.
    6. Mohammad Reza Azimi Sardari & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan & Thomas Panagopoulos & Elham Rafiei Sardooi, 2019. "Modeling the Impact of Climate Change and Land Use Change Scenarios on Soil Erosion at the Minab Dam Watershed," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-21, June.
    7. Ike Sari Astuti & Kamalakanta Sahoo & Adam Milewski & Deepak R. Mishra, 2019. "Impact of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) Change on Surface Runoff in an Increasingly Urbanized Tropical Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(12), pages 4087-4103, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Swatantra Kumar Dubey & JungJin Kim & Younggu Her & Devesh Sharma & Hanseok Jeong, 2023. "Hydroclimatic Impact Assessment Using the SWAT Model in India—State of the Art Review," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-40, November.
    2. Ravish K. Rathee & Sudipta K. Mishra, 2024. "Climate change impact assessment on the water resources of the Upper Yamuna River Basin in India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(7), pages 18477-18498, July.
    3. Juan Li & Xunzhou Chunyu & Feng Huang, 2022. "Land Use Pattern Changes and the Driving Forces in the Shiyang River Basin from 2000 to 2018," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-27, December.
    4. Li Li & Qidi Yu & Ling Gao & Bin Yu & Zhipeng Lu, 2021. "The Effect of Urban Land-Use Change on Runoff Water Quality: A Case Study in Hangzhou City," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(20), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Phong Nguyen Thanh & Thinh Le Van & Tuan Tran Minh & Tuyen Huynh Ngoc & Worapong Lohpaisankrit & Quoc Bao Pham & Alexandre S. Gagnon & Proloy Deb & Nhat Truong Pham & Duong Tran Anh & Vuong Nguyen Din, 2023. "Adapting to Climate-Change-Induced Drought Stress to Improve Water Management in Southeast Vietnam," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-27, June.
    6. Vitus Tankpa & Li Wang & Alfred Awotwi & Leelamber Singh & Samit Thapa & Raphael Ane Atanga & Xiaomeng Guo, 2021. "Modeling the effects of historical and future land use/land cover change dynamics on the hydrological response of Ashi watershed, northeastern China," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 7883-7912, May.
    7. Dongmei Feng & Edward Beighley & Roozbeh Raoufi & John Melack & Yuanhao Zhao & Sam Iacobellis & Daniel Cayan, 2019. "Propagation of future climate conditions into hydrologic response from coastal southern California watersheds," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 199-218, March.
    8. Ina Pohle & Anne Gädeke & Sabine Schümberg & Christoph Hinz & Hagen Koch, 2019. "Management Influences on Stream-Flow Variability in the Past and Under Potential Climate Change in a Central European Mining Region," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5191-5206, December.
    9. Carolina Natel Moura & Sílvio Luís Rafaeli Neto & Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos & Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá, 2020. "Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change in a Well-preserved Upland Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(8), pages 2255-2267, June.
    10. Jaewon Jung & Sungeun Jung & Junhyeong Lee & Myungjin Lee & Hung Soo Kim, 2021. "Analysis of Small Hydropower Generation Potential: (2) Future Prospect of the Potential under Climate Change," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, May.
    11. Yuepeng Liu & Chuanfeng Yang & Xinyang Yu & Mengwen Wang & Wei Qi, 2021. "Monitoring the Landscape Pattern and Characteristics of Non-Point Source Pollution in a Mountainous River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-15, October.
    12. Mudassar Iqbal & Jun Wen & Muhammad Masood & Muhammad Umer Masood & Muhammad Adnan, 2022. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Hydrological Processes of the Source Region of Yellow River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    13. Theint Thandar Bol & Timothy O. Randhir, 2024. "Predicting Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Chindwin River Watershed of Myanmar Using Multilayer Perceptron-Artificial Neural Networks," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, July.
    14. José Telo da Gama & Luis Loures & António López-Piñeiro & José Rato Nunes, 2021. "Assessing the Role of Phosphorus as a Macropollutant in Four Typical Mediterranean Basin Soils," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-10, October.
    15. Ankur Srivastava & Proloy Deb & Nikul Kumari, 2020. "Multi-Model Approach to Assess the Dynamics of Hydrologic Components in a Tropical Ecosystem," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(1), pages 327-341, January.
    16. Zafar Iqbal & Shamsuddin Shahid & Tarmizi Ismail & Zulfaqar Sa’adi & Aitazaz Farooque & Zaher Mundher Yaseen, 2022. "Distributed Hydrological Model Based on Machine Learning Algorithm: Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Floods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-30, May.
    17. Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.
    18. Peng Qi & Guangxin Zhang & Yi Jun Xu & Zhikun Xia & Ming Wang, 2019. "Response of Water Resources to Future Climate Change in a High-Latitude River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-21, October.
    19. Qin Ma & Xiaojun Yao & Cong Zhang & Chen Yang & Kang Yang & Zhijuan Tian & Jiawei Li, 2023. "Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Terminal Lakes in the Hexi Interior, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-18, December.
    20. Xiaoyang Tang & Deshan Tang & Fulin Zhang, 2024. "A Framework for Algorithmic Improvement to Mitigate the Effects of Equifinality in the Calibration of High-dimensional Parameters for Hydrological Models," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 38(1), pages 251-267, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:37:y:2023:i:10:d:10.1007_s11269-023-03545-6. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.