IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/agiwat/v277y2023ics0378377422006540.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of process-based and statistical approaches for simulation and projections of rainfed crop yields

Author

Listed:
  • Eini, Mohammad Reza
  • Salmani, Haniyeh
  • Piniewski, Mikołaj

Abstract

Accurate and comprehensive modelling aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on rainfed crop yields is of great importance due to the interconnected issues of water scarcity and food security. Because the process-based and statistical approaches to simulating crop yields are different in nature, a comparison between them is needed. This study investigates the accuracy of crop yield simulations in the historical period as well as future projections using two modelling approaches: 1) a process-based approach employing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool+ (SWAT+) model, and 2) a statistical approach employing a data-driven model, Feed Forward Back Propagation Neural Network (FFBPNN) over a medium-sized catchment in north-western Poland. The application of two potential evapotranspiration methods (Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves) in SWAT+ permitted calibration (2004–2011) and validation (2012–2019) of runoff and yields of winter wheat and spring barley. Different combinations of climatic parameters with a drought index based on Joint Deficit Index were applied to simulate and project rainfed crop yields (winter wheat, barley, potato, rye, rapeseed, sugar beets, cereals, maize for grain, maize for green forage, pulses) with FFBPNN. The results reveal that adding the new drought index helped increase the FFBPNN performance. This approach showed that future yields of the studied crops would slightly increase under RCP8.5 by 2060. Winter wheat and spring barley projections from SWAT+ showed very small changes using both the Penman-Monteith and Hargreaves method. Policy-wise, the results should be of interest to climate change adaptation practitioners and food security experts. Future studies should aim at more thorough investigation of the role of the downscaling technique and extreme events, as well as the effect of elevated CO2 on future crop yields.

Suggested Citation

  • Eini, Mohammad Reza & Salmani, Haniyeh & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2023. "Comparison of process-based and statistical approaches for simulation and projections of rainfed crop yields," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:277:y:2023:i:c:s0378377422006540
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108107
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377422006540
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.agwat.2022.108107?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deo, Ravinesh C. & Şahin, Mehmet & Adamowski, Jan F. & Mi, Jianchun, 2019. "Universally deployable extreme learning machines integrated with remotely sensed MODIS satellite predictors over Australia to forecast global solar radiation: A new approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 235-261.
    2. Teerachai Amnuaylojaroen & Pavinee Chanvichit & Radshadaporn Janta & Vanisa Surapipith, 2021. "Projection of Rice and Maize Productions in Northern Thailand under Climate Change Scenario RCP8.5," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-15, January.
    3. Jeyrani, F. & Morid, S. & Srinivasan, R., 2021. "Assessing basin blue–green available water components under different management and climate scenarios using SWAT," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    4. Gassman, Philip W. & Reyes, Manuel R. & Green, Colleen H. & Arnold, Jeffrey G., 2007. "The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001027, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    5. Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Porter, Dana O. & Brauer, David K. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2021. "Simulating the effects of agricultural production practices on water conservation and crop yields using an improved SWAT model in the Texas High Plains, USA," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    6. Javad Bazrafshan & Mehdi Nadi & Khalil Ghorbani, 2015. "Comparison of Empirical Copula-Based Joint Deficit Index (JDI) and Multivariate Standardized Precipitation Index (MSPI) for Drought Monitoring in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2027-2044, April.
    7. World Bank, 2005. "Agricultural Growth for the Poor : An Agenda for Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 7247.
    8. Jiang, Fei & Drohan, Patrick J. & Cibin, Raj & Preisendanz, Heather E. & White, Charles M. & Veith, Tamie L., 2021. "Reallocating crop rotation patterns improves water quality and maintains crop yield," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Villani, Lorenzo & Castelli, Giulio & Yimer, Estifanos Addisu & Nkwasa, Albert & Penna, Daniele & van Griensven, Ann & Bresci, Elena, 2024. "Exploring adaptive capacities in Mediterranean agriculture: Insights from Central Italy's Ombrone catchment," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Bals, Bryan D. & Dale, Bruce E., 2011. "Can Dispersed Biomass Processing Protect the Environment and Cover the Bottom Line for Biofuel?," Staff Paper Series 119348, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    2. Andersson, Jafet C.M. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Rockström, Johan & Yang, Hong, 2011. "Potential impacts of water harvesting and ecological sanitation on crop yield, evaporation and river flow regimes in the Thukela River basin, South Africa," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(7), pages 1113-1124, May.
    3. Hongxing Liu & Wendong Zhang & Elena Irwin & Jeffrey Kast & Noel Aloysius & Jay Martin & Margaret Kalcic, 2020. "Best Management Practices and Nutrient Reduction: An Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Model of the Western Lake Erie Basin," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(4), pages 510-530.
    4. Alan F. Hamlet & Nima Ehsani & Jennifer L. Tank & Zachariah Silver & Kyuhyun Byun & Ursula H. Mahl & Shannon L. Speir & Matt T. Trentman & Todd V. Royer, 2024. "Effects of climate and winter cover crops on nutrient loss in agricultural watersheds in the midwestern U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-21, January.
    5. Yates, Andrew J. & Doyle, Martin W. & Rigby, J.R. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2013. "Market power, private information, and the optimal scale of pollution permit markets with application to North Carolina's Neuse River," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 256-276.
    6. Jeong, Hanseok & Kim, Hakkwan & Jang, Taeil & Park, Seungwoo, 2016. "Assessing the effects of indirect wastewater reuse on paddy irrigation in the Osan River watershed in Korea using the SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 393-402.
    7. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    8. Čerkasova, Natalja & White, Michael & Arnold, Jeffrey & Bieger, Katrin & Allen, Peter & Gao, Jungang & Gambone, Marilyn & Meki, Manyowa & Kiniry, James & Gassman, Philip W., 2023. "Field scale SWAT+ modeling of corn and soybean yields for the contiguous United States: National Agroecosystem Model Development," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    9. Roy Brouwer & Rute Pinto & Jorge Garcia‐Hernandez & Xingtong Li & Merrin Macrae & Predrag Rajsic & Wanhong Yang & Yongbo Liu & Mark Anderson & Louise Heyming, 2023. "Spatial optimization of nutrient reduction measures on agricultural land to improve water quality: A coupled modeling approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(3-4), pages 329-353, September.
    10. Ramesh P. Rudra & Balew A. Mekonnen & Rituraj Shukla & Narayan Kumar Shrestha & Pradeep K. Goel & Prasad Daggupati & Asim Biswas, 2020. "Currents Status, Challenges, and Future Directions in Identifying Critical Source Areas for Non-Point Source Pollution in Canadian Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-25, October.
    11. Javier Senent-Aparicio & Sitian Liu & Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Adrián López-Ballesteros & Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, 2018. "Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    12. Elias Bekele & H. Knapp, 2010. "Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3299-3320, October.
    13. Gao, Jie & Xie, Pengxuan & Zhuo, La & Shang, Kehui & Ji, Xiangxiang & Wu, Pute, 2021. "Water footprints of irrigated crop production and meteorological driving factors at multiple temporal scales," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    14. N. Maier & J. Dietrich, 2016. "Using SWAT for Strategic Planning of Basin Scale Irrigation Control Policies: a Case Study from a Humid Region in Northern Germany," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3285-3298, July.
    15. Ribaudo, Marc & Savage, Jeffrey, 2014. "Controlling non-additional credits from nutrient management in water quality trading programs through eligibility baseline stringency," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 233-239.
    16. Lin Ye & Nancy Grimm, 2013. "Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 419-431, September.
    17. Panagopoulos, Y. & Makropoulos, C. & Baltas, E. & Mimikou, M., 2011. "SWAT parameterization for the identification of critical diffuse pollution source areas under data limitations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3500-3512.
    18. Zarezadeh, Mahboubeh & Delavar, Majid & Morid, Saeed & Abbasi, Hamid, 2023. "Evaluating the effectiveness of macro-level water-saving policies based on water footprint sustainability indicators," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    19. Anh Ngoc-Lan Huynh & Ravinesh C. Deo & Duc-Anh An-Vo & Mumtaz Ali & Nawin Raj & Shahab Abdulla, 2020. "Near Real-Time Global Solar Radiation Forecasting at Multiple Time-Step Horizons Using the Long Short-Term Memory Network," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(14), pages 1-30, July.
    20. Mohammed Mainuddin & Mac Kirby, 2009. "Agricultural productivity in the lower Mekong Basin: trends and future prospects for food security," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 1(1), pages 71-82, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:277:y:2023:i:c:s0378377422006540. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/agwat .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.