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Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest

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  • Lin Ye
  • Nancy Grimm

Abstract

The impacts of climate change on water and nitrogen cycles in arid central Arizona (USA) were investigated by integrating the Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM2) and a widely used, physical process-based model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). With statistically downscaled daily climate data from the CGCM2 as model input, SWAT predicted increased potential evapotranspiration and decreased surface runoff, lateral flow, soil water, and groundwater recharge, which suggests serious consequences for the water cycle in this desert catchment in the future. Specifically, stream discharge is projected to decrease by 31 % in the 2020s, 47 % in the 2050s, and 56 % in the 2080s compared to the mean discharge for the base period (0.73 m 3 /s). A flow-duration analysis reveals that the projected reduction of stream discharge in the future is attributable to significant decreases in mid-range and low-flow conditions; however, flood peaks would show a slight increase in the future. The drier and hotter future also will decrease the rate of nitrogen mineralization in the catchment and ultimately, nitrate export from the stream. Since mean mineralization rate would decrease by 15 % in the 2020s, 28 % in the 2050s, and 35 % in the 2080s compared to the based period (9.3 g N ha −1 d −1 ), the combined impact of reduced catchment mineralization and reduced streamflow would predict declining nitrate export: from today’s mean value of 30 kg N/d, to 20, 15 and 12 kg N/d by the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

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  • Lin Ye & Nancy Grimm, 2013. "Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 419-431, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:120:y:2013:i:1:p:419-431
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0827-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gassman, Philip W. & Reyes, Manuel R. & Green, Colleen H. & Arnold, Jeffrey G., 2007. "The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001027, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Shoma Tanzeeba & Thian Gan, 2012. "Potential impact of climate change on the water availability of South Saskatchewan River Basin," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 355-386, May.
    3. De Liu & Heping Zuo, 2012. "Statistical downscaling of daily climate variables for climate change impact assessment over New South Wales, Australia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 629-666, December.
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    1. Chen, Yong & Marek, Gary W. & Marek, Thomas H. & Moorhead, Jerry E. & Heflin, Kevin R. & Brauer, David K. & Gowda, Prasanna H. & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2019. "Simulating the impacts of climate change on hydrology and crop production in the Northern High Plains of Texas using an improved SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 13-24.
    2. Chen, Yong & Ale, Srinivasulu & Rajan, Nithya & Srinivasan, Raghavan, 2017. "Modeling the effects of land use change from cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) to perennial bioenergy grasses on watershed hydrology and water quality under changing climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 198-208.

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