IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v24y2010i13p3299-3320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability

Author

Listed:
  • Elias Bekele
  • H. Knapp

Abstract

Climate change could have impacts on hydrologic systems threatening, availability of water supply resources. In Illinois, regional water supply planning efforts are attempting to better understand potential impacts on low flow and surface water availability through analysis of hydrologic sensitivity to a range of climate scenarios. This paper explores the development, calibration and validation of Fox River watershed model using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the model’s application to assess impacts of potential climate change. The watershed model is calibrated and validated using daily flow records at three gauging stations. Automatic model calibration followed by manual refinement of parameter values was performed. Calibration results were generally good for monthly and annual time step but only satisfactory for daily simulations. Based on simulations of global climate models produced for IPCC fourth assessment report, climate scenarios were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey for water supply planning initiatives in north-east and east-central Illinois. These scenarios showed ranges of temperature change between 0°C to +3.3°C and annual precipitation changes between −127 to +127 mm in the next 50 years, excluding the 5% extreme ends of those climate model simulations considered. Changes in climate were reflected using adjustments to the historical record, instead of using direct outputs from individual climate models. The watershed model was used to assess the impact of potential climate change. Application results indicate that annual precipitation change of 127 mm on average increases annual water yield and 7-day low flows by 28% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, a temperature change of +3.3°C results in average reductions of annual water yield by 13% and 7-day low flows by 10%. Seasonal effects were investigated through evaluation of changes in average monthly flows. Increasing precipitation resulted in significant changes in streamflows in late summer and fall months where as increasing temperature greatly affects winter flows due to snowmelt. The key implication is that climate change-induced variability of streamflows could have major impacts on water supply availability in the Fox River watershed and in particular, increased periods of drought could result in deficit of supplies during seasons of peak water use. It must be noted that this analysis does not examine the potential impacts of population growth and water use on water supply availability, which are also expected to have substantial influences in the region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Elias Bekele & H. Knapp, 2010. "Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3299-3320, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:13:p:3299-3320
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9607-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11269-010-9607-y
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-010-9607-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gassman, Philip W. & Reyes, Manuel R. & Green, Colleen H. & Arnold, Jeffrey G., 2007. "The Soil and Water Assessment Tool: Historical Development, Applications, and Future Research Directions," ISU General Staff Papers 200701010800001027, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    2. Wenzhi Cao & William Bowden & Tim Davie & Andrew Fenemor, 2009. "Modelling Impacts of Land Cover Change on Critical Water Resources in the Motueka River Catchment, New Zealand," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(1), pages 137-151, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Adlul Islam & Alok Sikka & B. Saha & Anamika Singh, 2012. "Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1409-1424, April.
    2. Thanh Le & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2013. "Evaluating the Utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for Hydrological Application in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3227-3246, July.
    3. Martin Hanel & Magdalena Mrkvičková & Petr Máca & Adam Vizina & Pavel Pech, 2013. "Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5261-5279, December.
    4. Ferdous Ahmed, 2012. "A Hydrologic Model of Kemptville Basin—Calibration and Extended Validation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2583-2604, July.
    5. Meiyan Yu & Xi Chen & Lanhai Li & Anming Bao & Mupenzi Paix, 2011. "Streamflow Simulation by SWAT Using Different Precipitation Sources in Large Arid Basins with Scarce Raingauges," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2669-2681, September.
    6. Saghafian, Bahram & Sima, Somayeh & Sadeghi, Sajjad & Jeirani, Farzin, 2012. "Application of unit response approach for spatial prioritization of runoff and sediment sources," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 36-45.
    7. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    8. Rong Zhang & Celso Santos & Madalena Moreira & Paula Freire & João Corte-Real, 2013. "Automatic Calibration of the SHETRAN Hydrological Modelling System Using MSCE," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4053-4068, September.
    9. Mohsen Tavakoli & Florimond De Smedt & Thomas Vansteenkiste & Patrick Willems, 2014. "Impact of climate change and urban development on extreme flows in the Grote Nete watershed, Belgium," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2127-2142, April.
    10. Qingmu Su, 2020. "Long-term flood risk assessment of watersheds under climate change based on the game cross-efficiency DEA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2213-2237, December.
    11. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    12. Matthew Deitch & Adina Merenlender & Shane Feirer, 2013. "Cumulative Effects of Small Reservoirs on Streamflow in Northern Coastal California Catchments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5101-5118, December.
    13. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. N. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    14. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    15. Samireh Saymohammadi & Kiumars Zarafshani & Mohsen Tavakoli & Hossien Mahdizadeh & Farzad Amiri, 2017. "Prediction of Climate Change Induced Temperature & Precipitation: The Case of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, January.
    16. Lina Sun & Wenxi Lu & Qingchun Yang & Jordi Martín & Di Li, 2013. "Ecological Compensation Estimation of Soil and Water Conservation Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2709-2727, June.
    17. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
    18. Subimal Ghosh & Sudhir Katkar, 2012. "Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3559-3579, September.
    19. B. Fiseha & S. Setegn & A. Melesse & E. Volpi & A. Fiori, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1343, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lingcheng Li & Liping Zhang & Jun Xia & Christopher Gippel & Renchao Wang & Sidong Zeng, 2015. "Implications of Modelled Climate and Land Cover Changes on Runoff in the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project in China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2563-2579, June.
    2. Sanjeet Kumar & Ashok Mishra, 2015. "Critical Erosion Area Identification Based on Hydrological Response Unit Level for Effective Sedimentation Control in a River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 1749-1765, April.
    3. Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso & Swinton, Scott M. & Bals, Bryan D. & Dale, Bruce E., 2011. "Can Dispersed Biomass Processing Protect the Environment and Cover the Bottom Line for Biofuel?," Staff Paper Series 119348, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
    4. Andersson, Jafet C.M. & Zehnder, Alexander J.B. & Rockström, Johan & Yang, Hong, 2011. "Potential impacts of water harvesting and ecological sanitation on crop yield, evaporation and river flow regimes in the Thukela River basin, South Africa," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(7), pages 1113-1124, May.
    5. Hongxing Liu & Wendong Zhang & Elena Irwin & Jeffrey Kast & Noel Aloysius & Jay Martin & Margaret Kalcic, 2020. "Best Management Practices and Nutrient Reduction: An Integrated Economic-Hydrologic Model of the Western Lake Erie Basin," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 96(4), pages 510-530.
    6. Alan F. Hamlet & Nima Ehsani & Jennifer L. Tank & Zachariah Silver & Kyuhyun Byun & Ursula H. Mahl & Shannon L. Speir & Matt T. Trentman & Todd V. Royer, 2024. "Effects of climate and winter cover crops on nutrient loss in agricultural watersheds in the midwestern U.S," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(1), pages 1-21, January.
    7. Yates, Andrew J. & Doyle, Martin W. & Rigby, J.R. & Schnier, Kurt E., 2013. "Market power, private information, and the optimal scale of pollution permit markets with application to North Carolina's Neuse River," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 256-276.
    8. Eini, Mohammad Reza & Salmani, Haniyeh & Piniewski, Mikołaj, 2023. "Comparison of process-based and statistical approaches for simulation and projections of rainfed crop yields," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    9. Jeong, Hanseok & Kim, Hakkwan & Jang, Taeil & Park, Seungwoo, 2016. "Assessing the effects of indirect wastewater reuse on paddy irrigation in the Osan River watershed in Korea using the SWAT model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 393-402.
    10. Roy Brouwer & Rute Pinto & Jorge Garcia‐Hernandez & Xingtong Li & Merrin Macrae & Predrag Rajsic & Wanhong Yang & Yongbo Liu & Mark Anderson & Louise Heyming, 2023. "Spatial optimization of nutrient reduction measures on agricultural land to improve water quality: A coupled modeling approach," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 71(3-4), pages 329-353, September.
    11. Ramesh P. Rudra & Balew A. Mekonnen & Rituraj Shukla & Narayan Kumar Shrestha & Pradeep K. Goel & Prasad Daggupati & Asim Biswas, 2020. "Currents Status, Challenges, and Future Directions in Identifying Critical Source Areas for Non-Point Source Pollution in Canadian Conditions," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-25, October.
    12. Javier Senent-Aparicio & Sitian Liu & Julio Pérez-Sánchez & Adrián López-Ballesteros & Patricia Jimeno-Sáez, 2018. "Assessing Impacts of Climate Variability and Reforestation Activities on Water Resources in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-13, September.
    13. Gao, Jie & Xie, Pengxuan & Zhuo, La & Shang, Kehui & Ji, Xiangxiang & Wu, Pute, 2021. "Water footprints of irrigated crop production and meteorological driving factors at multiple temporal scales," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    14. N. Maier & J. Dietrich, 2016. "Using SWAT for Strategic Planning of Basin Scale Irrigation Control Policies: a Case Study from a Humid Region in Northern Germany," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3285-3298, July.
    15. Ribaudo, Marc & Savage, Jeffrey, 2014. "Controlling non-additional credits from nutrient management in water quality trading programs through eligibility baseline stringency," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 233-239.
    16. Lin Ye & Nancy Grimm, 2013. "Modelling potential impacts of climate change on water and nitrate export from a mid-sized, semiarid watershed in the US Southwest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(1), pages 419-431, September.
    17. Peng Shi & Xinxin Ma & Yuanbing Hou & Qiongfang Li & Zhicai Zhang & Simin Qu & Chao Chen & Tao Cai & Xiuqin Fang, 2013. "Effects of Land-Use and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in the Upstream of Huai River, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(5), pages 1263-1278, March.
    18. Panagopoulos, Y. & Makropoulos, C. & Baltas, E. & Mimikou, M., 2011. "SWAT parameterization for the identification of critical diffuse pollution source areas under data limitations," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3500-3512.
    19. Mudassar Iqbal & Jun Wen & Muhammad Masood & Muhammad Umer Masood & Muhammad Adnan, 2022. "Impacts of Climate and Land-Use Changes on Hydrological Processes of the Source Region of Yellow River, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    20. Vinit Sehgal & Venkataramana Sridhar & Luke Juran & Jactone Arogo Ogejo, 2018. "Integrating Climate Forecasts with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for High-Resolution Hydrologic Simulations and Forecasts in the Southeastern U.S," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-27, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:13:p:3299-3320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.