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Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability

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  • Elias Bekele
  • H. Knapp

Abstract

Climate change could have impacts on hydrologic systems threatening, availability of water supply resources. In Illinois, regional water supply planning efforts are attempting to better understand potential impacts on low flow and surface water availability through analysis of hydrologic sensitivity to a range of climate scenarios. This paper explores the development, calibration and validation of Fox River watershed model using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and the model’s application to assess impacts of potential climate change. The watershed model is calibrated and validated using daily flow records at three gauging stations. Automatic model calibration followed by manual refinement of parameter values was performed. Calibration results were generally good for monthly and annual time step but only satisfactory for daily simulations. Based on simulations of global climate models produced for IPCC fourth assessment report, climate scenarios were prepared by the Illinois State Water Survey for water supply planning initiatives in north-east and east-central Illinois. These scenarios showed ranges of temperature change between 0°C to +3.3°C and annual precipitation changes between −127 to +127 mm in the next 50 years, excluding the 5% extreme ends of those climate model simulations considered. Changes in climate were reflected using adjustments to the historical record, instead of using direct outputs from individual climate models. The watershed model was used to assess the impact of potential climate change. Application results indicate that annual precipitation change of 127 mm on average increases annual water yield and 7-day low flows by 28% and 19%, respectively. In contrast, a temperature change of +3.3°C results in average reductions of annual water yield by 13% and 7-day low flows by 10%. Seasonal effects were investigated through evaluation of changes in average monthly flows. Increasing precipitation resulted in significant changes in streamflows in late summer and fall months where as increasing temperature greatly affects winter flows due to snowmelt. The key implication is that climate change-induced variability of streamflows could have major impacts on water supply availability in the Fox River watershed and in particular, increased periods of drought could result in deficit of supplies during seasons of peak water use. It must be noted that this analysis does not examine the potential impacts of population growth and water use on water supply availability, which are also expected to have substantial influences in the region. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

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  • Elias Bekele & H. Knapp, 2010. "Watershed Modeling to Assessing Impacts of Potential Climate Change on Water Supply Availability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(13), pages 3299-3320, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:24:y:2010:i:13:p:3299-3320
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-010-9607-y
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    1. Boini Narsimlu & Ashvin Gosain & Baghu Chahar, 2013. "Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Upper Sind River Basin, India Using SWAT Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(10), pages 3647-3662, August.
    2. Adlul Islam & Alok Sikka & B. Saha & Anamika Singh, 2012. "Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1409-1424, April.
    3. Thanh Le & Deg-Hyo Bae, 2013. "Evaluating the Utility of IPCC AR4 GCMs for Hydrological Application in South Korea," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(9), pages 3227-3246, July.
    4. Martin Hanel & Magdalena Mrkvičková & Petr Máca & Adam Vizina & Pavel Pech, 2013. "Evaluation of Simple Statistical Downscaling Methods for Monthly Regional Climate Model Simulations with Respect to the Estimated Changes in Runoff in the Czech Republic," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5261-5279, December.
    5. Ferdous Ahmed, 2012. "A Hydrologic Model of Kemptville Basin—Calibration and Extended Validation," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(9), pages 2583-2604, July.
    6. Matthew Deitch & Adina Merenlender & Shane Feirer, 2013. "Cumulative Effects of Small Reservoirs on Streamflow in Northern Coastal California Catchments," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5101-5118, December.
    7. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. N. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    8. L Benini & M Antonellini & M Laghi & P. Mollema, 2016. "Assessment of Water Resources Availability and Groundwater Salinization in Future Climate and Land use Change Scenarios: A Case Study from a Coastal Drainage Basin in Italy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 731-745, January.
    9. Samireh Saymohammadi & Kiumars Zarafshani & Mohsen Tavakoli & Hossien Mahdizadeh & Farzad Amiri, 2017. "Prediction of Climate Change Induced Temperature & Precipitation: The Case of Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Meiyan Yu & Xi Chen & Lanhai Li & Anming Bao & Mupenzi Paix, 2011. "Streamflow Simulation by SWAT Using Different Precipitation Sources in Large Arid Basins with Scarce Raingauges," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(11), pages 2669-2681, September.
    11. Saghafian, Bahram & Sima, Somayeh & Sadeghi, Sajjad & Jeirani, Farzin, 2012. "Application of unit response approach for spatial prioritization of runoff and sediment sources," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 36-45.
    12. Alireza Gohari & Ali Mirchi & Kaveh Madani, 2017. "System Dynamics Evaluation of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Water Resources Management in Central Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1413-1434, March.
    13. Rong Zhang & Celso Santos & Madalena Moreira & Paula Freire & João Corte-Real, 2013. "Automatic Calibration of the SHETRAN Hydrological Modelling System Using MSCE," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 4053-4068, September.
    14. Mohsen Tavakoli & Florimond De Smedt & Thomas Vansteenkiste & Patrick Willems, 2014. "Impact of climate change and urban development on extreme flows in the Grote Nete watershed, Belgium," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2127-2142, April.
    15. Qingmu Su, 2020. "Long-term flood risk assessment of watersheds under climate change based on the game cross-efficiency DEA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2213-2237, December.
    16. Lina Sun & Wenxi Lu & Qingchun Yang & Jordi Martín & Di Li, 2013. "Ecological Compensation Estimation of Soil and Water Conservation Based on Cost-Benefit Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(8), pages 2709-2727, June.
    17. Aijing Zhang & Chi Zhang & Guobin Fu & Bende Wang & Zhenxin Bao & Hongxing Zheng, 2012. "Assessments of Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff with SWAT for the Huifa River Basin, Northeast China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(8), pages 2199-2217, June.
    18. Subimal Ghosh & Sudhir Katkar, 2012. "Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3559-3579, September.
    19. B. Fiseha & S. Setegn & A. Melesse & E. Volpi & A. Fiori, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1343, March.

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