IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v36y2022i13d10.1007_s11269-022-03304-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Past and Future Global Drought Assessment

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch

    (Yazd University)

Abstract

Understanding the climate change impacts on drought occurrence is of great importance for comprehensive water resources management. Reconnaissance drought index (RDI) considers, in addition to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET), which is a vital parameter to detect droughts under climate change. RDI is first applied to global land precipitation and PET data during 1959–2018. The annual drought trend analysis reveals while around 79% of the world’s lands present no significant drought trend, approximately 13 and 8% are getting drier and wetter, respectively. Therefore, the area of drying zone is larger than that of wetting zone. Seasonal drought trend analysis presents contradictory tendencies. Spring (MAM) and summer (JJA) indicate a drying trend. Conversely, fall (SON) and winter (DJF) present a wetting tendency. Climate projections of 16 global climate models (GCMs) from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under RCP8.5 scenario are used to assess future drought during 2006–2055. PET is estimated using Penman–Monteith model. The results obtained from all the applied GCMs suggest that the areal extent of RDI downward trend (shifting to more arid) is larger than that of more wetness tendency. Average of the area percentages presented by the 16 GCMs indicates while the area of drying zone is almost the same with that of the past period with 13%, the wetting zone in the future with 5% is smaller than that of past with 8%. Therefore, the observed drying trend in the past period will continue during the future period.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Amin Asadi Zarch, 2022. "Past and Future Global Drought Assessment," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(13), pages 5259-5276, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03304-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-022-03304-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-022-03304-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-022-03304-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi & Ali Shabani, 2021. "Using the Fuzzy Clustering and Principle Component Analysis for Assessing the Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Calculation Method On the Modified RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(11), pages 3679-3702, September.
    2. Ruperto Ortiz-Gómez & Roberto S. Flowers-Cano & Guillermo Medina-García, 2022. "Sensitivity of the RDI and SPEI Drought Indices to Different Models for Estimating Evapotranspiration Potential in Semiarid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(7), pages 2471-2492, May.
    3. Mojisola O. Adeniyi, 2016. "The consequences of the IPCC AR5 RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios on precipitation in West Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(2), pages 245-263, November.
    4. Seyed Banimahd & Davar Khalili, 2013. "Factors Influencing Markov Chains Predictability Characteristics, Utilizing SPI, RDI, EDI and SPEI Drought Indices in Different Climatic Zones," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(11), pages 3911-3928, September.
    5. Jabloun, M. & Sahli, A., 2008. "Evaluation of FAO-56 methodology for estimating reference evapotranspiration using limited climatic data: Application to Tunisia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(6), pages 707-715, June.
    6. Mohammad Asadi Zarch & Hossein Malekinezhad & Mohammad Mobin & Mohammad Dastorani & Mohammad Kousari, 2011. "Drought Monitoring by Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) in Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(13), pages 3485-3504, October.
    7. G. Tsakiris & D. Pangalou & H. Vangelis, 2007. "Regional Drought Assessment Based on the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 21(5), pages 821-833, May.
    8. Abdol Rassoul Zarei, 2018. "Evaluation of Drought Condition in Arid and Semi- Arid Regions, Using RDI Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1689-1711, March.
    9. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abdelaaziz Merabti & Mohamed Meddi & Diogo S. Martins & Luis S. Pereira, 2018. "Comparing SPI and RDI Applied at Local Scale as Influenced by Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(3), pages 1071-1085, February.
    2. Abolfazl Mosaedi & Hamid Zare Abyaneh & Mohammad Ghabaei Sough & S. Samadi, 2015. "Quantifying Changes in Reconnaissance Drought Index using Equiprobability Transformation Function," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2451-2469, June.
    3. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi, 2018. "A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2611-2624, June.
    4. Muhammad Waseem & Muhammad Ajmal & Joo Heon Lee & Tae-Woong Kim, 2016. "Multivariate Drought Assessment Considering the Antecedent Drought Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(12), pages 4221-4231, September.
    5. Lamneithem Hangshing & Parmendra P. Dabral, 2018. "Multivariate Frequency Analysis of Meteorological Drought Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1741-1758, March.
    6. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Shuhua Dong & Umar Waqas Liaqat & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Yuxiang Hu & Qaisar Saddique, 2016. "Recent Climate Trends and Drought Behavioral Assessment Based on Precipitation and Temperature Data Series in the Songhua River Basin of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(13), pages 4839-4859, October.
    7. Milan Gocic & Slavisa Trajkovic, 2014. "Drought Characterisation Based on Water Surplus Variability Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3179-3191, August.
    8. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Marzieh Mokarram & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2023. "Comparison of the capability of the Meteorological and Remote Sensing Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(2), pages 769-796, January.
    9. Alireza Shokoohi & Reza Morovati, 2015. "Basinwide Comparison of RDI and SPI Within an IWRM Framework," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(6), pages 2011-2026, April.
    10. Abdol Rassoul Zarei & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi, 2020. "Ability Assessment of the Stationary and Cyclostationary Time Series Models to Predict Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 34(15), pages 5009-5029, December.
    11. Muhammad Imran Khan & Dong Liu & Qiang Fu & Qaisar Saddique & Muhammad Abrar Faiz & Tianxiao Li & Muhammad Uzair Qamar & Song Cui & Chen Cheng, 2017. "Projected Changes of Future Extreme Drought Events under Numerous Drought Indices in the Heilongjiang Province of China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(12), pages 3921-3937, September.
    12. U. Surendran & B. Anagha & P. Raja & V. Kumar & K. Rajan & M. Jayakumar, 2019. "Analysis of Drought from Humid, Semi-Arid and Arid Regions of India Using DrinC Model with Different Drought Indices," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(4), pages 1521-1540, March.
    13. Neda Khanmohammadi & Hossein Rezaie & Javad Behmanesh, 2022. "Investigation of Drought Trend on the Basis of the Best Obtained Drought Index," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(4), pages 1355-1375, March.
    14. Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
    15. Yong-Wei Liu & Wen Wang & Yi-Ming Hu & Zhong-Min Liang, 2014. "Drought assessment and uncertainty analysis for Dapoling basin," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1613-1627, December.
    16. G. Tsakiris & I. Nalbantis & H. Vangelis & B. Verbeiren & M. Huysmans & B. Tychon & I. Jacquemin & F. Canters & S. Vanderhaegen & G. Engelen & L. Poelmans & P. Becker & O. Batelaan, 2013. "A System-based Paradigm of Drought Analysis for Operational Management," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(15), pages 5281-5297, December.
    17. Arash Modaresi Rad & Davar Khalili, 2015. "Appropriateness of Clustered Raingauge Stations for Spatio-Temporal Meteorological Drought Applications," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(11), pages 4157-4171, September.
    18. Javad Bazrafshan, 2017. "Effect of Air Temperature on Historical Trend of Long-Term Droughts in Different Climates of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4683-4698, November.
    19. Antonino Cancelliere, 2017. "Non Stationary Analysis of Extreme Events," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(10), pages 3097-3110, August.
    20. Zhenya Li & Zulfiqar Ali & Tong Cui & Sadia Qamar & Muhammad Ismail & Amna Nazeer & Muhammad Faisal, 2022. "A comparative analysis of pre- and post-industrial spatiotemporal drought trends and patterns of Tibet Plateau using Sen slope estimator and steady-state probabilities of Markov Chain," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 547-576, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:36:y:2022:i:13:d:10.1007_s11269-022-03304-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.