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Effect of Air Temperature on Historical Trend of Long-Term Droughts in Different Climates of Iran

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  • Javad Bazrafshan

    (University of Tehran)

Abstract

Effective monitoring of drought plays an important role in water resources planning and management, especially under global warming effect. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of air temperature on historical long-term droughts in regions with diverse climates in Iran. To this end, monthly air temperature (T) and precipitation (P) data were gathered from 15 longest record meteorological stations in Iran covering the period 1951–2014. Long-term meteorological droughts behavior was quantified using two different drought indices, i.e. the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Linear and non-linear trends in T, P, SPI and SPEI were evaluated using non-parametric and parametric statistical approaches such as non-modified and modified Mann-Kendall Test, Theil-Sen approach, and simple regression. The results indicated that the significant trends for temperature are approximately all increasing (0.2 °C to 0.5 °C per decade), and for precipitation are mostly decreasing (−7.2 mm to −14.8 mm per decade). It was also indicated that long-term drought intensities monitored by the SPI and SPEI have had significant downward trend (drought intensification with time) at most stations of interest. The observed trends in the SPI series can be worsen if air temperature (in addition to precipitation) participates in drought monitoring as SPEI. In arid and extra arid climates, it was observed that temperature has strong effects on historical drought characteristics when comparing the SPI and SPEI series. Due to the determinative role of temperature in mostly dry regions like Iran, the study suggests using the SPEI rather than SPI for more effective monitoring of droughts.

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  • Javad Bazrafshan, 2017. "Effect of Air Temperature on Historical Trend of Long-Term Droughts in Different Climates of Iran," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4683-4698, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:31:y:2017:i:14:d:10.1007_s11269-017-1773-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-017-1773-8
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    3. Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini & Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Fereydoun Radmanesh & Jahangir Abedi Koupai & Shahrokh Soltaninia, 2021. "Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4855-4875, November.
    4. Nouri, Milad & Homaee, Mehdi & Pereira, Luis S. & Bybordi, Mohammad, 2023. "Water management dilemma in the agricultural sector of Iran: A review focusing on water governance," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    5. Milad Nouri, 2023. "Drought Assessment Using Gridded Data Sources in Data-Poor Areas with Different Aridity Conditions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(11), pages 4327-4343, September.
    6. Javad Bazrafshan & Somayeh Hejabi, 2018. "A Non-Stationary Reconnaissance Drought Index (NRDI) for Drought Monitoring in a Changing Climate," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(8), pages 2611-2624, June.

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