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Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula

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  • L. Vergni
  • F. Todisco
  • F. Mannocchi

Abstract

The potential of a copula model for the description of the joint probability distribution of two agricultural drought characteristics, the relative onset RO and the relative severity RS, is investigated in Perugia (Central Italy) in reference to a sunflower crop. The 1924–2009 time series of daily precipitation and maximum and minimum temperature were used to simulate, by means of the AquaCrop model, the root-zone soil water dynamics (SW t ) and the crop yield under rainfed conditions. The seasonal values of RO and RS were quantified, by applying the theory of runs to SW t (assumed as the drought reference variable), with a threshold equal to the crop critical point. The analysis shows that the best-fitting marginal distribution for both RO and RS is a truncated Gumbel distribution. The dependence structure of RO and RS, investigated by graphical and analytical techniques, was modeled by a Student copula, which is able to adequately reproduce both the overall and upper tail dependence among variables. Lastly, the Student copula was applied to obtain joint probabilities and bivariate return periods for RO and RS. These results, compared with the expected estimated yields, provide useful information for drought planning and management. For example, for the case study considered, it was found that the condition RO ≥ 0.43 (i.e., onset before the end of June) and RS ≥ 0.22 has a 5-year return period and is frequently associated with critical yields, and that the condition RO ≥ 0.47 (i.e., onset before mid-June) and RS ≥ 0.25 has a 10-year return period and is almost certainly associated with critical yields. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:29:y:2015:i:8:p:2819-2835
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-015-0972-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi & L. Vergni, 2013. "Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1863-1881, February.
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    5. Bahram Saghafian & Hossein Mehdikhani, 2014. "Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1391-1407, July.
    6. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    7. Poulomi Ganguli & M. Reddy, 2012. "Risk Assessment of Droughts in Gujarat Using Bivariate Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(11), pages 3301-3327, September.
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