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Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study

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  • F. Todisco
  • F. Mannocchi
  • L. Vergni

Abstract

Severity–duration–frequency (SDF) curves are very useful in the analysis of drought phenomena. Station-level information obtained from SDF curves can be interpolated to obtain severity maps for fixed return period, in order to jointly analyse the spatial variability of drought characteristics (e.g. severity, duration and frequency). This approach is limited because the severity is usually quantified through indices that use hydrological and meteorological data, depending on the type of requirements. Therefore, drought indices can only reflect hydrological conditions, but are unable to quantify economic losses associated with droughts. In other words, SDF curves do not allow effective quantification of the impact expected with a certain return period. This paper proposes the methodology drought economic risk assessment (DERA) as an approach that emphasizes the importance of the relationship between a generic drought index (which quantifies water deficit) and the economic impact of the failure to meet water demand. Using integrated SDF curves, this relationship enables drought severity and corresponding impacts to be mapped. This procedure was applied to agricultural droughts (sunflower crop) in Umbria Region (central Italy). The agricultural drought impact variable was identified by sunflower yield (Y); the economic impact variable by net benefit depletion (EL); and the drought index by Relative Severity Index (RSI), which is quantifiable by a soil–water balance model. The relationships Y = g(RSI) and EL = f(Y) were specifically determined. Using DERA, it was possible to derive curves for SDF, impact–duration–frequency, and economic losses–duration–frequency (ELDF), which were then used to map severity, impact and economic losses for the assigned return period and duration. From the ELDF curves, further information was obtained by mapping critical drought durations for the assigned return period and economic loss threshold. The case study supports the potential of the proposed approach, both in the planning and real-time management of drought effects. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi & L. Vergni, 2013. "Severity–duration–frequency curves in the mitigation of drought impact: an agricultural case study," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1863-1881, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:65:y:2013:i:3:p:1863-1881
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0446-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. DeTar, W.R., 2008. "Yield and growth characteristics for cotton under various irrigation regimes on sandy soil," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 69-76, January.
    2. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
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    1. López-Vicente, Manuel & Álvarez, Sara, 2018. "Stability and patterns of topsoil water content in rainfed vineyards, olive groves, and cereal fields under different soil and tillage conditions," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 167-176.
    2. Xiao-Chen Yuan & Bao-Jun Tang & Yi-Ming Wei & Xiao-Jie Liang & Hao Yu & Ju-Liang Jin, 2015. "China’s regional drought risk under climate change: a two-stage process assessment approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 667-684, March.
    3. Huafeng Xu & Kexin Xu & Yingjie Yang, 2021. "Risk assessment model of agricultural drought disaster based on grey matter-element analysis theory," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2693-2707, July.
    4. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    5. George Tsakiris & Nikos Kordalis & Dimitris Tigkas & Vasileios Tsakiris & Harris Vangelis, 2016. "Analysing Drought Severity and Areal Extent by 2D Archimedean Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(15), pages 5723-5735, December.
    6. Beatrice Monteleone & Iolanda Borzí & Brunella Bonaccorso & Mario Martina, 2023. "Quantifying crop vulnerability to weather-related extreme events and climate change through vulnerability curves," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2761-2796, April.
    7. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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