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Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India

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  • Adlul Islam
  • Alok Sikka
  • B. Saha
  • Anamika Singh

Abstract

Climate change can significantly affect the water resources availability by resulting changes in hydrological cycle. Hydrologic models are usually used to predict the impacts of landuse and climate changes and to evaluate the management strategies. In this study, impacts of climate change on streamflow of the Brahmani River basin were assessed using Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) run under the platform of Modular Modeling System (MMS). The plausible hypothetical scenarios of rainfall and temperature changes were used to assess the sensitivity of streamflow to changed climatic condition. The PRMS model was calibrated and validated for the study area. Model performance was evaluated by using joint plots of daily and monthly observed and simulated runoff hydrographs and different statistical indicators. Daily observed and simulated hydrographs showed a reasonable agreement for calibration as well as validation periods. The modeling efficiency (E) varied in the range of 0.69 to 0.93 and 0.85 to 0.95 for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. Simulation studies with temperature rise of 2 and 4°C indicated 6 and 11% decrease in annual streamflow, respectively. However, there is about 62% increase in annual streamflow under the combined effect of 4°C temperature rise and 30% rainfall increase (T4P30). The results of the scenario analysis showed that the basin is more sensitive to changes in rainfall as compared to changes in temperature. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2012

Suggested Citation

  • Adlul Islam & Alok Sikka & B. Saha & Anamika Singh, 2012. "Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1409-1424, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:26:y:2012:i:6:p:1409-1424
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9965-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sarah Beganskas & Kyle S. Young & Andrew T. Fisher & Ryan Harmon & Sacha Lozano, 2019. "Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1683-1698, March.
    2. Pawan Kumar Rai & C. T. Dhanya & B. R. Chahar, 2018. "Coupling of 1D models (SWAT and SWMM) with 2D model (iRIC) for mapping inundation in Brahmani and Baitarani river delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1821-1840, July.
    3. Jianzhu Li & Guoqing Li & Shuhan Zhou & Fulong Chen, 2016. "Quantifying the Effects of Land Surface Change on Annual Runoff Considering Precipitation Variability by SWAT," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(3), pages 1071-1084, February.
    4. Lanhua Luo & Qing Zhou & Hong S. He & Liangxia Duan & Gaoling Zhang & Hongxia Xie, 2020. "Relative Importance of Land Use and Climate Change on Hydrology in Agricultural Watershed of Southern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-19, August.
    5. Xue-hua Zhao & Xu Chen, 2015. "Auto Regressive and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2913-2926, June.
    6. Yan, Yan & Yang, Zhifeng & Liu, Qiang, 2013. "Nonlinear trend in streamflow and its response to climate change under complex ecohydrological patterns in the Yellow River Basin, China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 252(C), pages 220-227.
    7. Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.
    8. Amit Kumar & Raghvender Pratap Singh & Swatantra Kumar Dubey & Kumar Gaurav, 2022. "Streamflow of the Betwa River under the Combined Effect of LU-LC and Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, November.
    9. Subimal Ghosh & Sudhir Katkar, 2012. "Modeling Uncertainty Resulting from Multiple Downscaling Methods in Assessing Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(12), pages 3559-3579, September.

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