IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/waterr/v33y2019i5d10.1007_s11269-019-2197-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Beganskas

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Temple University)

  • Kyle S. Young

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Physics, U.S. Coast Guard Academy)

  • Andrew T. Fisher

    (University of California Santa Cruz)

  • Ryan Harmon

    (University of California Santa Cruz
    Colorado School of Mines)

  • Sacha Lozano

    (Resource Conservation District of Santa Cruz County)

Abstract

We quantified the distribution of hillslope runoff under different climate and land-use conditions in a coastal, mixed land-use basin, the Pajaro Valley Drainage Basin (PVDB), California, USA, in order to evaluate opportunities to improve groundwater supply. We developed dry, normal, and wet climate scenarios using high-resolution historic data and compared contemporary land use to pre-development land use under the different climate scenarios. Relative to pre-development conditions, urban and agricultural development resulted in more than twice as much simulated runoff generation, greater spatial variability in runoff, and less water available for recharge; these differences were most pronounced during the dry climate scenario. Runoff results were considered in terms of potential to support distributed stormwater collection linked to managed aquifer recharge (DSC-MAR), which routes excess hillslope runoff to sites where it can infiltrate and enhance groundwater recharge. In the PVDB, 10% of the annual groundwater deficit could be addressed by recharging 4.3% of basin-wide hillslope runoff generated during the normal scenario, and 10.0% and 1.5% of runoff during the dry and wet scenarios, respectively. Runoff simulation results were combined with an independent recharge suitability mapping analysis, showing that DSC-MAR could be effective in many parts of the PVDB under a range of climate conditions. These results highlight the importance of strategically locating DSC-MAR projects at the confluence of reliable supply and favorable subsurface hydrologic properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Beganskas & Kyle S. Young & Andrew T. Fisher & Ryan Harmon & Sacha Lozano, 2019. "Runoff Modeling of a Coastal Basin to Assess Variations in Response to Shifting Climate and Land Use: Implications for Managed Recharge," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(5), pages 1683-1698, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-019-2197-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-2197-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11269-019-2197-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11269-019-2197-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adlul Islam & Alok Sikka & B. Saha & Anamika Singh, 2012. "Streamflow Response to Climate Change in the Brahmani River Basin, India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 26(6), pages 1409-1424, April.
    2. Robert J. Allen & Rainer Luptowitz, 2017. "El Niño-like teleconnection increases California precipitation in response to warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    3. Ivana Cvijanovic & Benjamin D. Santer & Céline Bonfils & Donald D. Lucas & John C. H. Chiang & Susan Zimmerman, 2017. "Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Julie Vano & Dennis Lettenmaier, 2014. "A sensitivity-based approach to evaluating future changes in Colorado River discharge," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(4), pages 621-634, February.
    5. Clara Hohmann & Gottfried Kirchengast & Steffen Birk, 2018. "Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 147(1), pages 179-193, March.
    6. Paul Leahy & Gerard Kiely, 2011. "Short Duration Rainfall Extremes in Ireland: Influence of Climatic Variability," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 25(3), pages 987-1003, February.
    7. B. Fiseha & S. Setegn & A. Melesse & E. Volpi & A. Fiori, 2014. "Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrology of Upper Tiber River Basin Using Bias Corrected Regional Climate Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(5), pages 1327-1343, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. S. Leitman & G. A. Kiker, 2015. "Development and comparison of integrated river/reservoir models in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint basin, USA," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 410-423, September.
    2. Xue-hua Zhao & Xu Chen, 2015. "Auto Regressive and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition Hybrid Model for Annual Runoff Forecasting," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2913-2926, June.
    3. Emilio Laino & Gregorio Iglesias, 2024. "High-level characterisation and mapping of key climate-change hazards in European coastal cities," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(4), pages 3623-3659, March.
    4. Lei Qiao & Yang Hong & Renee McPherson & Mark Shafer & David Gade & David Williams & Sheng Chen & Douglas Lilly, 2014. "Climate Change and Hydrological Response in the Trans-State Oologah Lake Watershed–Evaluating Dynamically Downscaled NARCCAP and Statistically Downscaled CMIP3 Simulations with VIC Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(10), pages 3291-3305, August.
    5. Cai, Qingyin & Çakır, Metin & Beatty, Timothy & Park, Timothy A., 2022. "Drought and the Specialty Crops Production in California," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322530, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Pedro Pérez-Cutillas & Pedro Baños Páez & Isabel Banos-González, 2020. "Variability of Water Balance under Climate Change Scenarios. Implications for Sustainability in the Rhône River Basin," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    7. Didier Haguma & Robert Leconte, 2018. "Long-Term Planning of Water Systems in the Context of Climate Non-Stationarity with Deterministic and Stochastic Optimization," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(5), pages 1725-1739, March.
    8. Sandra Mourato & Madalena Moreira & João Corte-Real, 2015. "Water Resources Impact Assessment Under Climate Change Scenarios in Mediterranean Watersheds," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(7), pages 2377-2391, May.
    9. Xiaowen Zhuang & Yurui Fan & Yongping Li & Chuanbao Wu, 2023. "Evaluation Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources Over the Upper Reach of the Yellow River Basin," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2875-2889, May.
    10. Swati Maurya & Prashant K. Srivastava & Lu Zhuo & Aradhana Yaduvanshi & R. K. Mall, 2023. "Future Climate Change Impact on the Streamflow of Mahi River Basin Under Different General Circulation Model Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2675-2696, May.
    11. Arunima Sarkar Basu & Laurence William Gill & Francesco Pilla & Bidroha Basu, 2022. "Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Annual Maximum Flood in an Urban River in Dublin, Ireland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-23, April.
    12. Zexi Shen & Qiang Zhang & Vijay P. Singh & Yadu Pokhrel & Jianping Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Wenhuan Wu, 2022. "Drying in the low-latitude Atlantic Ocean contributed to terrestrial water storage depletion across Eurasia," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-10, December.
    13. Hasrul Hazman Hasan & Siti Fatin Mohd Razali & Nur Shazwani Muhammad & Asmadi Ahmad, 2022. "Modified Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Spatial and Temporal Approaches," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-28, May.
    14. Amit Kumar & Raghvender Pratap Singh & Swatantra Kumar Dubey & Kumar Gaurav, 2022. "Streamflow of the Betwa River under the Combined Effect of LU-LC and Climate Change," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-15, November.
    15. Foley, A.M. & Leahy, P.G. & Li, K. & McKeogh, E.J. & Morrison, A.P., 2015. "A long-term analysis of pumped hydro storage to firm wind power," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 638-648.
    16. Hong Li & Chong-Yu Xu & Stein Beldring & Lena Merete Tallaksen & Sharad K. Jain, 2016. "Water Resources Under Climate Change in Himalayan Basins," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(2), pages 843-859, January.
    17. Laino, Emilio & Iglesias, Gregorio, 2023. "Extreme climate change hazards and impacts on European coastal cities: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    18. Pawan Kumar Rai & C. T. Dhanya & B. R. Chahar, 2018. "Coupling of 1D models (SWAT and SWMM) with 2D model (iRIC) for mapping inundation in Brahmani and Baitarani river delta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1821-1840, July.
    19. Babak Farjad & Anil Gupta & Danielle J. Marceau, 2016. "Annual and Seasonal Variations of Hydrological Processes Under Climate Change Scenarios in Two Sub-Catchments of a Complex Watershed," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(8), pages 2851-2865, June.
    20. Rama, Nandamuri Yamini & Ganguli, Poulomi & Chatterjee, Chandranath, 2019. "Are Detected Trends in Flood Magnitude and Shifts in the Timing of Floods of A Major River Basin in India, Linked To Anthropogenic Stressors?," Earth Arxiv kmcty, Center for Open Science.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:waterr:v:33:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s11269-019-2197-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.