IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v77y2015i2p1289-1303.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China

Author

Listed:
  • Ying Li
  • Wei Gu
  • Weijia Cui
  • Zhiyun Chang
  • Yingjun Xu

Abstract

Many factors are involved in the occurrence of crop drought events, and some related studies have focused on the problems of multi-factor integration. Probability is the basis of disaster risk research, but the solver of multi-element integrated probability, commonly used in drought risk analysis, cannot solve the multi-factor nonlinear relationship. Therefore, new methods are needed to build the joint probability distribution of multi-element integration, and the use of the copula function is one approach that can better explain the combined effects of multi-factor equations. We extracted the sequence of meteorological drought events during the growth period of winter wheat in Beijing from 1952 to 2012 and selected the appropriate characterization of drought severity and duration. The copula function was used to build a joint distribution function and to calculate the return period of drought events. Based on the joint probability method, the joint return periods were calculated and resulting risk was analyzed. The joint return periods were close to reality, and they offer greater potential for improving high-level meteorological drought disaster mitigation, strategy planning, program design, and risk management. Using the joint probability and values of the featured variables, the joint return period under different conditions could be calculated easily. The contribution of the copula function in estimating the uncertainty of drought level risk can lay the foundation for a joint analysis of multi-factor crop meteorological disaster risk. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Ying Li & Wei Gu & Weijia Cui & Zhiyun Chang & Yingjun Xu, 2015. "Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1289-1303, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1289-1303
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1649-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1649-2
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1649-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Hochrainer-Stigler & N. Lugeri & M. Radziejewski, 2014. "Up-scaling of impact dependent loss distributions: a hybrid convolution approach for flood risk in Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1437-1451, January.
    2. Bahram Saghafian & Hossein Mehdikhani, 2014. "Drought characterization using a new copula-based trivariate approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1391-1407, July.
    3. J. Shiau, 2006. "Fitting Drought Duration and Severity with Two-Dimensional Copulas," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 795-815, October.
    4. Christian Hering & Jan-Frederik Mai, 2012. "Moment-based estimation of extendible Marshall-Olkin copulas," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 75(5), pages 601-620, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen An & Ming Dou & Jianling Zhang & Guiqiu Li, 2021. "Method for Analyzing Copula-Based Water Shortage Risk in Multisource Water Supply Cities," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4877-4894, November.
    2. Li, Pei & Huang, Qiang & Huang, Shengzhi & Leng, Guoyong & Peng, Jian & Wang, Hao & Zheng, Xudong & Li, Yifei & Fang, Wei, 2022. "Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    3. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    4. Raissa Zurli Bittencourt Bravo & Ana Paula Martins do Amaral Cunha & Adriana Leiras & Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira, 2021. "A new approach for a drought composite index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 755-773, August.
    5. Liping Wang & Xingnan Zhang & Shufang Wang & Mohamed Khaled Salahou & Yuanhao Fang, 2020. "Analysis and Application of Drought Characteristics Based on Theory of Runs and Copulas in Yunnan, Southwest China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(13), pages 1-17, June.
    6. Ribeiro, Andreia F.S. & Russo, Ana & Gouveia, Célia M. & Páscoa, Patrícia, 2019. "Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    7. Qian Li & Liutong Chen & Zhengtao Yan & Yingjun Xu, 2022. "Exploration of Copula Models Use in Risk Assessment for Freezing and Snow Events: A Case Study in Southern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-12, February.
    8. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa," EconStor Preprints 243160, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Xiao Liu & Ping Guo & Qian Tan & Fan Zhang & Yan Huang & Youzhi Wang, 2021. "Drought disaster risk management based on optimal allocation of water resources," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 285-308, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rina Wu & Jiquan Zhang & Yuhai Bao & Enliang Guo, 2019. "Run Theory and Copula-Based Drought Risk Analysis for Songnen Grassland in Northeastern China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-17, October.
    2. L. Vergni & F. Todisco & F. Mannocchi, 2015. "Analysis of agricultural drought characteristics through a two-dimensional copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(8), pages 2819-2835, June.
    3. Xu, Yang & Zhang, Xuan & Hao, Zengchao & Hao, Fanghua & Li, Chong, 2021. "Projections of future meteorological droughts in China under CMIP6 from a three‐dimensional perspective," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    4. Vergni, L. & Todisco, F. & Di Lena, B. & Mannocchi, F., 2020. "Bivariate analysis of drought duration and severity for irrigation planning," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    5. Fatih Tosunoglu & Ibrahim Can, 2016. "Application of copulas for regional bivariate frequency analysis of meteorological droughts in Turkey," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 1457-1477, July.
    6. Ge, Yan & Cai, Ximing & Zhu, Tingju & Ringler, Claudia, 2016. "Drought frequency change: An assessment in northern India plains," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 111-121.
    7. Ziqiang Xing & Denghua Yan & Cheng Zhang & Gang Wang & Dongdong Zhang, 2015. "Spatial Characterization and Bivariate Frequency Analysis of Precipitation and Runoff in the Upper Huai River Basin, China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3291-3304, July.
    8. Katarzyna Baran-Gurgul, 2022. "The Risk of Extreme Streamflow Drought in the Polish Carpathians—A Two-Dimensional Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-27, October.
    9. Zahra Sadat Hosseini & Mahnoosh Moghaddasi & Shahla Paimozd, 2023. "Simultaneous Monitoring of Different Drought Types Using Linear and Nonlinear Combination Approaches," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(3), pages 1125-1151, February.
    10. Lei, Kaixuan & Chang, Jianxia & Long, Ruihao & Wang, Yimin & Zhang, Hongxue, 2022. "Cascade hydropower station risk operation under the condition of inflow uncertainty," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    11. Xiong-Fei Liu & Shi-Xin Wang & Yi Zhou & Fu-Tao Wang & Guang Yang & Wen-Liang Liu, 2016. "Spatial analysis of meteorological drought return periods in China using Copulas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 367-388, January.
    12. Zahra Fahimirad & Nazanin Shahkarami, 2021. "The Impact of Climate Change on Hydro-Meteorological Droughts Using Copula Functions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(12), pages 3969-3993, September.
    13. Otero, Noelia & Martius, Olivia & Allen, Sam & Bloomfield, Hannah & Schaefli, Bettina, 2022. "A copula-based assessment of renewable energy droughts across Europe," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 667-677.
    14. Panagiota Galiatsatou & Christos Makris & Panayotis Prinos & Dimitrios Kokkinos, 2019. "Nonstationary joint probability analysis of extreme marine variables to assess design water levels at the shoreline in a changing climate," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(3), pages 1051-1089, September.
    15. Xike Guan & Zengchuan Dong & Yun Luo & Dunyu Zhong, 2021. "Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of River Basin Water Resources under Full Probability Scenarios Considering Wet–Dry Encounters: A Case Study of Yellow River Basin," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-19, November.
    16. Saralees Nadarajah, 2009. "A bivariate distribution with gamma and beta marginals with application to drought data," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 277-301.
    17. T. Sharma & U. Panu, 2014. "A Simplified Model for Predicting Drought Magnitudes: a Case of Streamflow Droughts in Canadian Prairies," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(6), pages 1597-1611, April.
    18. Dai, Meng & Huang, Shengzhi & Huang, Qiang & Leng, Guoyong & Guo, Yi & Wang, Lu & Fang, Wei & Li, Pei & Zheng, Xudong, 2020. "Assessing agricultural drought risk and its dynamic evolution characteristics," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    19. Yang, Cuiping & Liu, Changhong & Liu, Yanxin & Gao, Yunhe & Xing, Xuguang & Ma, Xiaoyi, 2024. "Prediction of drought trigger thresholds for future winter wheat yield losses in China based on the DSSAT-CERES-Wheat model and Copula conditional probabilities," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 299(C).
    20. Ting Wei & Songbai Song, 2019. "Utilization of the Copula-Based Composite Likelihood Approach to Improve Design Precipitation Estimates Accuracy," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 33(15), pages 5089-5106, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:77:y:2015:i:2:p:1289-1303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.