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Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems

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  • Ribeiro, Andreia F.S.
  • Russo, Ana
  • Gouveia, Célia M.
  • Páscoa, Patrícia

Abstract

In a future climate, warmer and drier conditions are expected, and the associated negative impacts in agricultural productions are a major issue. Assessing the risk of drought hazard on agricultural systems is, therefore, of main importance in decision-making, with the aim of mitigating drought-related crop losses. In this study the agricultural drought risk is defined as the conditional probability of occurring crop-losses under drought conditions. We use the copula theory to estimate joint probability distributions describing the amount of dependence between drought conditions and crop yield anomalies of two major rainfed cereals in the Iberian Peninsula (wheat and barley), in the period 1986–2016. Further conditional probability distributions of the crop yield anomalies under different drought levels are obtained using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the satellite derived indices Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI). The results suggest that, in general, the joint behaviour of yield anomalies and drought conditions exhibits a dependence between the extreme values, whereas barley exhibits greater probabilities of joint extreme low values of yield and drought indicators. Moreover, while TCI is mainly used in copula models indicating greater probabilities of joint extreme high values of wheat and drought indicators (gumbel models), VCI and SPEI are mainly associated to copula models indicating greater probabilities of joint extreme low values (clayton models). The estimated conditional probabilities of occurrence of crop-loss are illustrated at the province level and suggest that agricultural drought risk increases with drought severity in most of the provinces.

Suggested Citation

  • Ribeiro, Andreia F.S. & Russo, Ana & Gouveia, Célia M. & Páscoa, Patrícia, 2019. "Copula-based agricultural drought risk of rainfed cropping systems," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 223(C), pages 1-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agiwat:v:223:y:2019:i:c:70
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2019.105689
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ying Li & Wei Gu & Weijia Cui & Zhiyun Chang & Yingjun Xu, 2015. "Exploration of copula function use in crop meteorological drought risk analysis: a case study of winter wheat in Beijing, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 1289-1303, June.
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    Cited by:

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    3. Li, Pei & Huang, Qiang & Huang, Shengzhi & Leng, Guoyong & Peng, Jian & Wang, Hao & Zheng, Xudong & Li, Yifei & Fang, Wei, 2022. "Various maize yield losses and their dynamics triggered by drought thresholds based on Copula-Bayesian conditional probabilities," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
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    6. Zhang, Yu & Hao, Zengchao & Feng, Sifang & Zhang, Xuan & Xu, Yang & Hao, Fanghua, 2021. "Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    7. Elaheh Motevali Bashi Naeini & Ali Mohammad Akhoond-Ali & Fereydoun Radmanesh & Jahangir Abedi Koupai & Shahrokh Soltaninia, 2021. "Comparison of the Calculated Drought Return Periods Using Tri-variate and Bivariate Copula Functions Under Climate Change Condition," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(14), pages 4855-4875, November.
    8. Mubenga-Tshitaka, Jean-Luc & Muteba Mwamba, John W. & Dikgang, Johane & Gelo, Dambala, 2021. "Risk spillover between climate variables and the agricultural commodity market in East Africa," EconStor Preprints 243160, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Mohamad Khoirun Najib & Sri Nurdiati & Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, 2022. "Multivariate fire risk models using copula regression in Kalimantan, Indonesia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(2), pages 1263-1283, September.
    10. Zhang, Shuo & Kang, Yan & Gao, Xuan & Chen, Peiru & Cheng, Xiao & Song, Songbai & Li, Lingjie, 2023. "Optimal reservoir operation and risk analysis of agriculture water supply considering encounter uncertainty of precipitation in irrigation area and runoff from upstream," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    11. Zhang, Fan & Cui, Ningbo & Guo, Shanshan & Yue, Qiong & Jiang, Shouzheng & Zhu, Bin & Yu, Xiuyun, 2023. "Irrigation strategy optimization in irrigation districts with seasonal agricultural drought in southwest China: A copula-based stochastic multiobjective approach," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 282(C).
    12. Khaledi-Alamdari, Mohammad & Majnooni-Heris, Abolfazl & Fakheri-Fard, Ahmad & Russo, Ana, 2023. "Probabilistic climate risk assessment in rainfed wheat yield: Copula approach using water requirement satisfaction index," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    13. Jun Yin & Zhe Yuan & Ting Li, 2021. "The Spatial-Temporal Variation Characteristics of Natural Vegetation Drought in the Yangtze River Source Region, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(4), pages 1-24, February.
    14. Ihsan F. Hasan & Rozi Abdullah, 2022. "Agricultural Drought Characteristics Analysis Using Copula," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(15), pages 5915-5930, December.
    15. Zhang, Yitong & Hao, Zengchao & Zhang, Yu, 2023. "Agricultural risk assessment of compound dry and hot events in China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    16. Zhang, Tianyuan & Tan, Qian & Wang, Shuping & Zhang, Tong & Hu, Kejia & Zhang, Shan, 2022. "Assessment and management of composite risk in irrigated agriculture under water-food-energy nexus and uncertainty," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).
    17. Liu, Yu & Li, Shilei & Liu, Yanxin & Shen, Hongzheng & Huang, Tingting & Ma, Xiaoyi, 2023. "Optimization of a nitrogen fertilizer application scheme for spring maize in full-film double-ridge furrow in Longzhong, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 290(C).
    18. Dongxing Zhang & Dang Luo, 2022. "Assessment of agricultural drought loss using a skewed grey cloud ordered clustering model," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2787-2810, December.

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