IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v176y2023i2d10.1007_s10584-022-03467-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies

Author

Listed:
  • Savin Chand

    (Mt Helen Campus)

  • Scott Power

    (University of Southern Queensland
    Monash University)

  • Kevin Walsh

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Neil Holbrook

    (Monash University
    University of Tasmania)

  • Kathleen McInnes

    (CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Kevin Tory

    (Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Hamish Ramsay

    (CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Ron Hoeke

    (CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Anthony S. Kiem

    (University of Newcastle)

Abstract

Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to climate variability and change. Developing strategies for adaptation and planning processes in the Pacific requires new knowledge and updated information on climate science. In this paper, we review key climatic processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, how they may change in the future and what the impact of these changes might be. In particular, our emphasis is on the two major atmospheric circulation patterns, namely the Hadley and Walker circulations. We also examine climatic features such as the South Pacific Convergence Zone and Intertropical Convergence Zone, as well as factors that modulate natural climate variability on different timescales. It is anticipated that our review of the main climate processes and drivers that operate in the Pacific, as well as how these processes and drivers are likely to change in the future under anthropogenic global warming, can help relevant national agencies (such as Meteorological Services and National Disaster Management Offices) clearly communicate new information to sector-specific stakeholders and the wider community through awareness raising.

Suggested Citation

  • Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03467-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-022-03467-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Sharmila & K. J. E. Walsh, 2018. "Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 730-736, August.
    2. Matthew H. England & Shayne McGregor & Paul Spence & Gerald A. Meehl & Axel Timmermann & Wenju Cai & Alex Sen Gupta & Michael J. McPhaden & Ariaan Purich & Agus Santoso, 2014. "Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 222-227, March.
    3. Wenju Cai & Simon Borlace & Matthieu Lengaigne & Peter van Rensch & Mat Collins & Gabriel Vecchi & Axel Timmermann & Agus Santoso & Michael J. McPhaden & Lixin Wu & Matthew H. England & Guojian Wang &, 2014. "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 111-116, February.
    4. Scott Power & François Delage & Christine Chung & Greg Kociuba & Kevin Keay, 2013. "Robust twenty-first-century projections of El Niño and related precipitation variability," Nature, Nature, vol. 502(7472), pages 541-545, October.
    5. Scott B. Power & François P. D. Delage, 2019. "Setting and smashing extreme temperature records over the coming century," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 529-534, July.
    6. Sang-Wook Yeh & Jong-Seong Kug & Boris Dewitte & Min-Ho Kwon & Ben P. Kirtman & Fei-Fei Jin, 2009. "El Niño in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 511-514, September.
    7. Masahiro Watanabe & Jean-Louis Dufresne & Yu Kosaka & Thorsten Mauritsen & Hiroaki Tatebe, 2021. "Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 33-37, January.
    8. Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Suzana J. Camargo & James P. Kossin & Kevin J. Tory & Michael F. Wehner & Johnny C. L. Chan & Philip J. Klotzbach & Andrew J. Dowdy & Samuel S. Bell & Hamish A. Ra, 2022. "Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 655-661, July.
    9. Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. Tory & Hua Ye & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2017. "Projected increase in El Niño-driven tropical cyclone frequency in the Pacific," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(2), pages 123-127, February.
    10. Richard Seager & Mark Cane & Naomi Henderson & Dong-Eun Lee & Ryan Abernathey & Honghai Zhang, 2019. "Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 517-522, July.
    11. Hiroyuki Murakami & Bin Wang & Tim Li & Akio Kitoh, 2013. "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(8), pages 749-754, August.
    12. Matthew J. Widlansky & Axel Timmermann & Karl Stein & Shayne McGregor & Niklas Schneider & Matthew H. England & Matthieu Lengaigne & Wenju Cai, 2013. "Changes in South Pacific rainfall bands in a warming climate," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(4), pages 417-423, April.
    13. Eui-Seok Chung & Axel Timmermann & Brian J. Soden & Kyung-Ja Ha & Lei Shi & Viju O. John, 2019. "Reconciling opposing Walker circulation trends in observations and model projections," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(5), pages 405-412, May.
    14. Gabriel A. Vecchi & Brian J. Soden & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Isaac M. Held & Ants Leetmaa & Matthew J. Harrison, 2006. "Weakening of tropical Pacific atmospheric circulation due to anthropogenic forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 441(7089), pages 73-76, May.
    15. Sang-Wook Yeh & Jong-Seong Kug & Boris Dewitte & Min-Ho Kwon & Ben P. Kirtman & Fei-Fei Jin, 2009. "Erratum: El Niño in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 462(7273), pages 674-674, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anil Deo & Savin S. Chand & R. Duncan McIntosh & Bipen Prakash & Neil J. Holbrook & Andrew Magee & Alick Haruhiru & Philip Malsale, 2022. "Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-23, June.
    2. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Mingna Wu & Chao Li & Matthew Collins & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Zhongshi Zhang, 2024. "Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2023. "Hot and dry compound events in South America: present climate and future projections, and their association with the Pacific Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 299-323, October.
    7. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    9. Katharina Waha & John Clarke & Kavina Dayal & Mandy Freund & Craig Heady & Irene Parisi & Elisabeth Vogel, 2022. "Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    10. Feng Jiang & Richard Seager & Mark A. Cane, 2024. "A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    11. Raphael J. Nawrotzki & Marina Tebeck & Sven Harten & Venya Blankenagel, 2023. "Climate change vulnerability hotspots in Costa Rica: constructing a sub-national index," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 13(3), pages 473-499, September.
    12. Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    13. Luis Fernando Melo‐Velandia & Camilo Andrés Orozco‐Vanegas & Daniel Parra‐Amado, 2022. "Extreme weather events and high Colombian food prices: A non‐stationary extreme value approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(S1), pages 21-40, November.
    14. Hosmay Lopez & Sang-Ki Lee & Dongmin Kim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Aguilar, Arturo & Vicarelli, Marta, 2022. "El Niño and children: Medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    16. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.
    17. Ryan Cronin & Anthony Halog, 2022. "A Unique Perspective of Materials, Practices and Structures Within the Food, Energy and Water Nexus of Australian Urban Alternative Food Networks," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 327-349, March.
    18. John Miller & Guilherme Vieira Silva & Darrell Strauss, 2023. "Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2591-2617, March.
    19. Laetitia E. Pichevin & Massimo Bollasina & Alexandra J. Nederbragt & Raja S. Ganeshram, 2024. "North Atlantic temperature control on deoxygenation in the northern tropical Pacific," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    20. Leo Kingston, S., 2024. "Time-varying parameters induced extreme events in Liénard systems and network," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:176:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10584-022-03467-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.