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Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient

Author

Listed:
  • Masahiro Watanabe

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Jean-Louis Dufresne

    (Sorbonne Université, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, École Polytechnique)

  • Yu Kosaka

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Thorsten Mauritsen

    (Stockholm University)

  • Hiroaki Tatebe

    (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology)

Abstract

The equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, known to be a pacemaker of global warming, has strengthened since the mid-twentieth century. However, the cause is controversial because a majority of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models suggest weakening of the zonal SST gradient from the past to the future. Reconciling this discrepancy is important for the climate change attribution and climate sensitivity assessment. Here we use the CMIP5 ensemble and large ensemble simulations by four climate models to show that the intensifying SST gradient observed during 1951–2010 could arise from internal climate variability. Models and members that simulate historical strengthening of the SST gradient commonly exhibit reversed future trends. Using these models as a constraint, the rate of global-mean temperature rise is amplified by 9–30%, with higher values occurring in low-emission scenarios, because internal variability has a greater impact when the externally forced response is smaller.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiro Watanabe & Jean-Louis Dufresne & Yu Kosaka & Thorsten Mauritsen & Hiroaki Tatebe, 2021. "Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 33-37, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:11:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1038_s41558-020-00933-3
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00933-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    3. Shuo Fu & Shineng Hu & Xiao-Tong Zheng & Kay McMonigal & Sarah Larson & Yiqun Tian, 2024. "Historical changes in wind-driven ocean circulation drive pattern of Pacific warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Lu Dong & L. Ruby Leung & Fengfei Song & Jian Lu, 2021. "Uncertainty in El Niño-like warming and California precipitation changes linked by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    5. Feng Jiang & Richard Seager & Mark A. Cane, 2024. "A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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