IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/nat/natcom/v15y2024i1d10.1038_s41467-024-50663-9.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes

Author

Listed:
  • Geon-Il Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • Ji-Hoon Oh

    (Seoul National University)

  • Na-Yeon Shin

    (Seoul National University)

  • Soon-Il An

    (Yonsei University)

  • Sang-Wook Yeh

    (Hanyang University)

  • Jongsoo Shin

    (Woods Hole)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Seoul National University
    Seoul National University)

Abstract

The deep ocean, a vast thermal reservoir, absorbs excess heat under greenhouse warming, which ultimately regulates the Earth’s surface climate. Even if CO2 emissions are successfully reduced, the stored heat will gradually be released, resulting in a particular pattern of ocean warming. Here, we show that deep ocean warming will lead to El Niño-like ocean warming and resultant increased precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific with southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Consequently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifts eastward, intensifying Eastern Pacific El Niño events. In particular, the deep ocean warming could increase convective extreme El Niño events by 40 to 80% relative to the current climate. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic greenhouse warming will have a prolonged impact on El Niño variability through delayed deep ocean warming, even if CO2 stabilization is achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50663-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50663-9
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50663-9
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1038/s41467-024-50663-9?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong-Seong Kug & Ji-Hoon Oh & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Seung-Ki Min & Seok-Woo Son & Jonghun Kam & Yoo-Geun Ham & Jongsoo Shin, 2022. "Hysteresis of the intertropical convergence zone to CO2 forcing," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 47-53, January.
    2. Sang-Wook Yeh & Jong-Seong Kug & Boris Dewitte & Min-Ho Kwon & Ben P. Kirtman & Fei-Fei Jin, 2009. "El Niño in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 461(7263), pages 511-514, September.
    3. Sonia I. Seneviratne & Markus G. Donat & Andy J. Pitman & Reto Knutti & Robert L. Wilby, 2016. "Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets," Nature, Nature, vol. 529(7587), pages 477-483, January.
    4. Ji-Hoon Oh & Jong-Seong Kug & Soon-Il An & Fei-Fei Jin & Michael J. McPhaden & Jongsoo Shin, 2024. "Emergent climate change patterns originating from deep ocean warming in climate mitigation scenarios," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 14(3), pages 260-266, March.
    5. Dan Tong & Qiang Zhang & Yixuan Zheng & Ken Caldeira & Christine Shearer & Chaopeng Hong & Yue Qin & Steven J. Davis, 2019. "Committed emissions from existing energy infrastructure jeopardize 1.5 °C climate target," Nature, Nature, vol. 572(7769), pages 373-377, August.
    6. Soong-Ki Kim & Jongsoo Shin & Soon-Il An & Hyo-Jeong Kim & Nari Im & Shang-Ping Xie & Jong-Seong Kug & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Widespread irreversible changes in surface temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(9), pages 834-840, September.
    7. Wenju Cai & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Sang-Wook Yeh & Soon-Il An & Kim M. Cobb & Mat Collins & Eric Guilyardi & Fei-Fei Jin & Jong-Seong Kug & Matthieu Lengaigne & Michael J. McPhaden & Ken Takaha, 2015. "ENSO and greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(9), pages 849-859, September.
    8. Julius Garbe & Torsten Albrecht & Anders Levermann & Jonathan F. Donges & Ricarda Winkelmann, 2020. "The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet," Nature, Nature, vol. 585(7826), pages 538-544, September.
    9. Tapio Schneider & Tobias Bischoff & Gerald H. Haug, 2014. "Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone," Nature, Nature, vol. 513(7516), pages 45-53, September.
    10. Wenju Cai & Simon Borlace & Matthieu Lengaigne & Peter van Rensch & Mat Collins & Gabriel Vecchi & Axel Timmermann & Agus Santoso & Michael J. McPhaden & Lixin Wu & Matthew H. England & Guojian Wang &, 2014. "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 111-116, February.
    11. Guojian Wang & Wenju Cai & Bolan Gan & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Xiaopei Lin & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2017. "Continued increase of extreme El Niño frequency long after 1.5 °C warming stabilization," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 568-572, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Hosmay Lopez & Sang-Ki Lee & Dongmin Kim & Andrew T. Wittenberg & Sang-Wook Yeh, 2022. "Projections of faster onset and slower decay of El Niño in the 21st century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    3. Aguilar, Arturo & Vicarelli, Marta, 2022. "El Niño and children: Medium-term effects of early-life weather shocks on cognitive and health outcomes," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Tao Geng & Wenju Cai & Lixin Wu & Agus Santoso & Guojian Wang & Zhao Jing & Bolan Gan & Yun Yang & Shujun Li & Shengpeng Wang & Zhaohui Chen & Michael J. McPhaden, 2022. "Emergence of changing Central-Pacific and Eastern-Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in a warming climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Anil Deo & Savin S. Chand & R. Duncan McIntosh & Bipen Prakash & Neil J. Holbrook & Andrew Magee & Alick Haruhiru & Philip Malsale, 2022. "Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Johann D. Bell & Inna Senina & Timothy Adams & Olivier Aumont & Beatriz Calmettes & Sangaalofa Clark & Morgane Dessert & Marion Gehlen & Thomas Gorgues & John Hampton & Quentin Hanich & Harriet Harden, 2021. "Pathways to sustaining tuna-dependent Pacific Island economies during climate change," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(10), pages 900-910, October.
    7. Bojana Škrbić & Željko Đurišić, 2023. "Novel Planning Methodology for Spatially Optimized RES Development Which Minimizes Flexibility Requirements for Their Integration into the Power System," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-34, April.
    8. Luis Guillermo Becerra-Valbuena & Jorge A. Bonilla, 2021. "Climatic shocks, air quality, and health at birth in Bogotá," Working Papers halshs-03429482, HAL.
    9. Guerra, K. & Haro, P. & Gutiérrez, R.E. & Gómez-Barea, A., 2022. "Facing the high share of variable renewable energy in the power system: Flexibility and stability requirements," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    10. Zhang, Zhuo & Zhao, Yongliang & Cai, Haiya & Ajaz, Tahseen, 2023. "Influence of renewable energy infrastructure, Chinese outward FDI, and technical efficiency on ecological sustainability in belt and road node economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 608-616.
    11. Jing-Li Fan & Zezheng Li & Xi Huang & Kai Li & Xian Zhang & Xi Lu & Jianzhong Wu & Klaus Hubacek & Bo Shen, 2023. "A net-zero emissions strategy for China’s power sector using carbon-capture utilization and storage," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-16, December.
    12. Damette, Olivier & Mathonnat, Clément & Thavard, Julien, 2024. "Climate and sovereign risk: The Latin American experience with strong ENSO events," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    13. Ibrahim Sufiyan, 2020. "Rainfall Trend And It Impact In Keffi Nasarawa State," Engineering Heritage Journal (GWK), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 23-26, June.
    14. Halim Lee & Jaewon Son & Dayoon Joo & Jinhyeok Ha & Seongreal Yun & Chul-Hee Lim & Woo-Kyun Lee, 2020. "Sustainable Water Security Based on the SDG Framework: A Case Study of the 2019 Metro Manila Water Crisis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-19, August.
    15. Srivastav, Sugandha & Zaehringer, Michael, 2023. "The Economics of Coal Phaseouts," INET Oxford Working Papers 2023-17, Institute for New Economic Thinking at the Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford.
    16. Pan, Shuai & Yu, Wendi & Fulton, Lewis M. & Jung, Jia & Choi, Yunsoo & Gao, H. Oliver, 2023. "Impacts of the large-scale use of passenger electric vehicles on public health in 30 US. metropolitan areas," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    17. Ploy Achakulwisut & Peter Erickson & Céline Guivarch & Roberto Schaeffer & Elina Brutschin & Steve Pye, 2023. "Global fossil fuel reduction pathways under different climate mitigation strategies and ambitions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-15, December.
    18. Luo, Erga & Yan, Ru & He, Yaping & Han, Zhen & Feng, Yiyu & Qian, Wenrong & Li, Jinkai, 2024. "Does biogas industrial policy promote the industrial transformation?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    19. César Salazar & Andrés Acuña‐Duarte & José Maria Gil, 2023. "Drought shocks and price adjustments in local food markets in Chile: Do product quality and marketing channel matter?," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 54(3), pages 349-363, May.
    20. Montrone, Lorenzo & Steckel, Jan Christoph & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 2022. "The type of power capacity matters for economic development – Evidence from a global panel," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50663-9. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.nature.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.