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Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes

Author

Listed:
  • Geon-Il Kim

    (Seoul National University)

  • Ji-Hoon Oh

    (Seoul National University)

  • Na-Yeon Shin

    (Seoul National University)

  • Soon-Il An

    (Yonsei University)

  • Sang-Wook Yeh

    (Hanyang University)

  • Jongsoo Shin

    (Woods Hole)

  • Jong-Seong Kug

    (Seoul National University
    Seoul National University)

Abstract

The deep ocean, a vast thermal reservoir, absorbs excess heat under greenhouse warming, which ultimately regulates the Earth’s surface climate. Even if CO2 emissions are successfully reduced, the stored heat will gradually be released, resulting in a particular pattern of ocean warming. Here, we show that deep ocean warming will lead to El Niño-like ocean warming and resultant increased precipitation in the tropical eastern Pacific with southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone. Consequently, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation shifts eastward, intensifying Eastern Pacific El Niño events. In particular, the deep ocean warming could increase convective extreme El Niño events by 40 to 80% relative to the current climate. Our findings suggest that anthropogenic greenhouse warming will have a prolonged impact on El Niño variability through delayed deep ocean warming, even if CO2 stabilization is achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Geon-Il Kim & Ji-Hoon Oh & Na-Yeon Shin & Soon-Il An & Sang-Wook Yeh & Jongsoo Shin & Jong-Seong Kug, 2024. "Deep ocean warming-induced El Niño changes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-8, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-50663-9
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50663-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    5. Wenju Cai & Simon Borlace & Matthieu Lengaigne & Peter van Rensch & Mat Collins & Gabriel Vecchi & Axel Timmermann & Agus Santoso & Michael J. McPhaden & Lixin Wu & Matthew H. England & Guojian Wang &, 2014. "Increasing frequency of extreme El Niño events due to greenhouse warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(2), pages 111-116, February.
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