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Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion

Author

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  • S. Sharmila

    (University of Melbourne
    Federation University)

  • K. J. E. Walsh

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Recent research indicates that the annual-mean locations of tropical cyclones have migrated toward higher latitudes. Concurrently, an anthropogenically forced tropical expansion has been observed, yet the connection between the two processes remains little-explored. Here, using observational and reanalysis data, we investigate how large-scale dynamical effects, combined with coherent changes in the regional Hadley circulation, explain recent changes in regional tropical cyclone genesis over 1980–2014. We show that the recent anomalous upper-level weakening of the rising branch of the Hadley circulation in the deep tropics, possibly induced by the increased vertical stability, has likely suppressed the low-latitude tropical cyclone genesis in most ocean basins via anomalous large-scale subsidence. Regional Hadley circulation variations have also favoured a poleward displacement of tropical-cyclone-favourable climate conditions through poleward shift of the Hadley circulation’s meridional extent. With projections indicating continued tropical expansion, these results indicate that tropical cyclone genesis will also continue to shift poleward, potentially increasing tropical-cyclone-related hazards in higher-latitude regions.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Sharmila & K. J. E. Walsh, 2018. "Recent poleward shift of tropical cyclone formation linked to Hadley cell expansion," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 730-736, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:8:y:2018:i:8:d:10.1038_s41558-018-0227-5
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0227-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Krishneel K. Sharma & Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd & Andrew D. Magee, 2023. "The influence of large-scale climate modes on tropical cyclone tracks in the southwest Pacific," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2285-2307, September.
    2. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    3. John Miller & Guilherme Vieira Silva & Darrell Strauss, 2023. "Divergence of tropical cyclone hazard based on wind-weighted track distributions in the Coral Sea, over 50 years," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(2), pages 2591-2617, March.
    4. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Anil Deo & Savin S. Chand & R. Duncan McIntosh & Bipen Prakash & Neil J. Holbrook & Andrew Magee & Alick Haruhiru & Philip Malsale, 2022. "Severe tropical cyclones over southwest Pacific Islands: economic impacts and implications for disaster risk management," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 172(3), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Rob Roggema, 2019. "Design for Disruption: Creating Anti-Fragile Urban Delta Landscapes," Urban Planning, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(1), pages 113-122.
    8. Pavan Harika Raavi & Jung-Eun Chu & Axel Timmermann & Sun-Seon Lee & Kevin J. E. Walsh, 2023. "Moisture control of tropical cyclones in high-resolution simulations of paleoclimate and future climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-12, December.

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