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A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability

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  • Feng Jiang

    (Columbia University)

  • Richard Seager

    (Columbia University)

  • Mark A. Cane

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

The eastern tropical Pacific has defied the global warming trend. There has been a debate about whether this observed trend is forced or natural (i.e., the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; IPO) and this study shows that there are two patterns, one that oscillates along with the IPO, and one that is emerging since the mid-1950s, herein called the Pacific Climate Change (PCC) pattern. Here we show these have distinctive and distinguishable atmosphere-ocean signatures. While the IPO features a meridionally broad wedge-shaped SST pattern, the PCC pattern is marked by a narrow equatorial cooling band. These different SST patterns are related to distinct wind-driven ocean dynamical processes. We further show that the recent trends during the satellite era are a combination of IPO and PCC. Our findings set a path to distinguish climate change signals from internal variability through the underlying dynamics of each.

Suggested Citation

  • Feng Jiang & Richard Seager & Mark A. Cane, 2024. "A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-52731-6
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-52731-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Chengfei He & Amy C. Clement & Sydney M. Kramer & Mark A. Cane & Jeremy M. Klavans & Tyler M. Fenske & Lisa N. Murphy, 2023. "Tropical Atlantic multidecadal variability is dominated by external forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 622(7983), pages 521-527, October.
    3. Masahiro Watanabe & Jean-Louis Dufresne & Yu Kosaka & Thorsten Mauritsen & Hiroaki Tatebe, 2021. "Enhanced warming constrained by past trends in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature gradient," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 33-37, January.
    4. Richard Seager & Mark Cane & Naomi Henderson & Dong-Eun Lee & Ryan Abernathey & Honghai Zhang, 2019. "Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 517-522, July.
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