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Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Seager

    (Columbia University)

  • Mark Cane

    (Columbia University)

  • Naomi Henderson

    (Columbia University)

  • Dong-Eun Lee

    (Columbia University)

  • Ryan Abernathey

    (Columbia University)

  • Honghai Zhang

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

As exemplified by El Niño, the tropical Pacific Ocean strongly influences regional climates and their variability worldwide1–3. It also regulates the rate of global temperature rise in response to rising GHGs4. The tropical Pacific Ocean response to rising GHGs impacts all of the world’s population. State-of-the-art climate models predict that rising GHGs reduce the west-to-east warm-to-cool sea surface temperature gradient across the equatorial Pacific5. In nature, however, the gradient has strengthened in recent decades as GHG concentrations have risen sharply5. This stark discrepancy between models and observations has troubled the climate research community for two decades. Here, by returning to the fundamental dynamics and thermodynamics of the tropical ocean–atmosphere system, and avoiding sources of model bias, we show that a parsimonious formulation of tropical Pacific dynamics yields a response that is consistent with observations and attributable to rising GHGs. We use the same dynamics to show that the erroneous warming in state-of-the-art models is a consequence of the cold bias of their equatorial cold tongues. The failure of state-of-the-art models to capture the correct response introduces critical error into their projections of climate change in the many regions sensitive to tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Seager & Mark Cane & Naomi Henderson & Dong-Eun Lee & Ryan Abernathey & Honghai Zhang, 2019. "Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 517-522, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:9:y:2019:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-019-0505-x
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0505-x
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Omid Alizadeh, 2022. "Amplitude, duration, variability, and seasonal frequency analysis of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 174(3), pages 1-15, October.
    3. Christine M. Albano & Maureen I. McCarthy & Michael D. Dettinger & Stephanie A. McAfee, 2021. "Techniques for constructing climate scenarios for stress test applications," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-25, February.
    4. Mingna Wu & Chao Li & Matthew Collins & Hongmei Li & Xiaolong Chen & Tianjun Zhou & Zhongshi Zhang, 2024. "Early emergence and determinants of human-induced Walker circulation weakening," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.
    5. Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Suzana J. Camargo & James P. Kossin & Kevin J. Tory & Michael F. Wehner & Johnny C. L. Chan & Philip J. Klotzbach & Andrew J. Dowdy & Samuel S. Bell & Hamish A. Ra, 2022. "Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 655-661, July.
    6. Xiangbo Feng & Nicholas P. Klingaman & Kevin I. Hodges, 2021. "Poleward migration of western North Pacific tropical cyclones related to changes in cyclone seasonality," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-11, December.
    7. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    8. Soledad Collazo & Mariana Barrucand & Matilde Rusticucci, 2023. "Hot and dry compound events in South America: present climate and future projections, and their association with the Pacific Ocean," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 119(1), pages 299-323, October.
    9. Tongtong Xu & Matthew Newman & Antonietta Capotondi & Samantha Stevenson & Emanuele Di Lorenzo & Michael A. Alexander, 2022. "An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    10. Feng Jiang & Richard Seager & Mark A. Cane, 2024. "A climate change signal in the tropical Pacific emerges from decadal variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-11, December.

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