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Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Katharina Waha

    (CSIRO Agriculture & Food)

  • John Clarke

    (CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere)

  • Kavina Dayal

    (CSIRO Agriculture & Food
    CSIRO Agriculture & Food)

  • Mandy Freund

    (CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere
    University of Melbourne)

  • Craig Heady

    (CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere)

  • Irene Parisi

    (CSIRO Agriculture & Food)

  • Elisabeth Vogel

    (University of Melbourne)

Abstract

Annual rainfall and the seasonality of rainfall during a year are important drivers of agricultural productivity and profitability in Australian agriculture. Historic trend detection can give insights into significant and prolonged changes that might continue in the future and are of relevance to agriculture. Here we complement the analysis of historic data with climate projections from global climate models. We use gridded and station rainfall data for three study areas in the Australian midlatitudes, between 24°S and 35°S. Total summer and winter rainfall, annual total rainfall and annual rainfall extreme indices are calculated for the period 1907 to 2018. Historic trends are analysed with statistical significance tests of linear trends and rainfall deciles. Future trends are analysed for annual, summer and winter rainfall for three time periods, 2020–2039, 2040–2059 and 2060–79, as the ensemble of 25–37 global climate models. Summer rainfall in the Western Australia wheat belt increased by 0.18–0.21 mm per year. Winter rainfall decreased by 0.42–0.43 mm per year. Parts of northern New South Wales (NSW) experienced an exceptionally dry decade, 2011–2020 with summer rainfall 50–200 mm below the long-term average. Future rainfall projections for the wheat belt show a strong declining trend, irrespective of the climate scenario, while in the other two regions, increases and decreases are possible. We confirm previous findings of declines in winter rainfall in the Western Australia wheat Belt but do not detect any such changes in Eastern Australia. Some of the observed long periods of dry summers in northern NSW are rather unprecedented. Future studies should repeat the trend analysis for Eastern Australia as the data becomes available. Apart from climate indices, agrometeorological indices for specific agricultural commodities should be developed and used in trend analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Katharina Waha & John Clarke & Kavina Dayal & Mandy Freund & Craig Heady & Irene Parisi & Elisabeth Vogel, 2022. "Past and future rainfall changes in the Australian midlatitudes and implications for agriculture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(3), pages 1-21, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:170:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-021-03301-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03301-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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