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Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming

Author

Listed:
  • Savin S. Chand

    (Federation University)

  • Kevin J. E. Walsh

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Suzana J. Camargo

    (Columbia University)

  • James P. Kossin

    (NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information/Climate Science and Services Division
    The Climate Service)

  • Kevin J. Tory

    (Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Michael F. Wehner

    (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

  • Johnny C. L. Chan

    (City University of Hong Kong)

  • Philip J. Klotzbach

    (Colorado State University)

  • Andrew J. Dowdy

    (Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Samuel S. Bell

    (Research and Development Branch, Bureau of Meteorology)

  • Hamish A. Ramsay

    (CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere)

  • Hiroyuki Murakami

    (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)

Abstract

Assessing the role of anthropogenic warming from temporally inhomogeneous historical data in the presence of large natural variability is difficult and has caused conflicting conclusions on detection and attribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trends. Here, using a reconstructed long-term proxy of annual TC numbers together with high-resolution climate model experiments, we show robust declining trends in the annual number of TCs at global and regional scales during the twentieth century. The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) dataset is used for reconstruction because, compared with other reanalyses, it assimilates only sea-level pressure fields rather than utilize all available observations in the troposphere, making it less sensitive to temporal inhomogeneities in the observations. It can also capture TC signatures from the pre-satellite era reasonably well. The declining trends found are consistent with the twentieth century weakening of the Hadley and Walker circulations, which make conditions for TC formation less favourable.

Suggested Citation

  • Savin S. Chand & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Suzana J. Camargo & James P. Kossin & Kevin J. Tory & Michael F. Wehner & Johnny C. L. Chan & Philip J. Klotzbach & Andrew J. Dowdy & Samuel S. Bell & Hamish A. Ra, 2022. "Declining tropical cyclone frequency under global warming," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 655-661, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:12:y:2022:i:7:d:10.1038_s41558-022-01388-4
    DOI: 10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Xiaoqin Yan & Rong Zhang & Thomas R. Knutson, 2017. "The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-8, December.
    2. Savin S. Chand & Andrew J. Dowdy & Hamish A. Ramsay & Kevin J. E. Walsh & Kevin J. Tory & Scott B. Power & Samuel S. Bell & Sally L. Lavender & Hua Ye & Yuri Kuleshov, 2019. "Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(5), September.
    3. Hisayuki Kubota & Jun Matsumoto & Masumi Zaiki & Togo Tsukahara & Takehiko Mikami & Rob Allan & Clive Wilkinson & Sally Wilkinson & Kevin Wood & Mark Mollan, 2021. "Tropical cyclones over the western north Pacific since the mid-nineteenth century," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-19, February.
    4. Richard Seager & Mark Cane & Naomi Henderson & Dong-Eun Lee & Ryan Abernathey & Honghai Zhang, 2019. "Strengthening tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient consistent with rising greenhouse gases," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(7), pages 517-522, July.
    5. Kin Sik Liu & Johnny C. L. Chan & Hisayuki Kubota, 2021. "Meridional oscillation of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific during the past 110 years," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-22, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Savin Chand & Scott Power & Kevin Walsh & Neil Holbrook & Kathleen McInnes & Kevin Tory & Hamish Ramsay & Ron Hoeke & Anthony S. Kiem, 2023. "Climate processes and drivers in the Pacific and global warming: a review for informing Pacific planning agencies," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 176(2), pages 1-16, February.
    2. Yi Li & Youmin Tang & Shuai Wang & Ralf Toumi & Xiangzhou Song & Qiang Wang, 2023. "Recent increases in tropical cyclone rapid intensification events in global offshore regions," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    3. Gan Zhang, 2023. "Warming-induced contraction of tropical convection delays and reduces tropical cyclone formation," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-11, December.
    4. Shinto Roose & R. S. Ajayamohan & Pallav Ray & Shang-Ping Xie & C. T. Sabeerali & M. Mohapatra & S. Taraphdar & K. Mohanakumar & M. Rajeevan, 2023. "Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.

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