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Assembling and testing a generic phenological model to predict Lobesia botrana voltinism for impact studies

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  • Castex, V.
  • García de Cortázar-Atauri, I.
  • Calanca, P.
  • Beniston, M.
  • Moreau, J.

Abstract

The physiological development of insect pests is driven by temperature and photoperiod. Geographic variations in the speed of growth reflect current patterns in thermal conditions as a function of latitude and altitude. Global warming will likely lead to shifts in pests’ phenology. Insects are expected to overwinter earlier and develop more generations, with implications for the risks of damage to agricultural crops. Understanding and monitoring of the voltinism of insect pests will be increasingly important to anticipate critical phases of pest development and devise options for adapting pest control measures. In this study, we describe a new generic phenological model that allows to reproduce the voltinism of Lobesia botrana, a major insect pest that affect grapevine production (Vitis vinifera L.) worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Castex, V. & García de Cortázar-Atauri, I. & Calanca, P. & Beniston, M. & Moreau, J., 2020. "Assembling and testing a generic phenological model to predict Lobesia botrana voltinism for impact studies," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 420(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:420:y:2020:i:c:s0304380020300181
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.108946
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maiorano, Andrea & Bregaglio, Simone & Donatelli, Marcello & Fumagalli, Davide & Zucchini, Antonio, 2012. "Comparison of modelling approaches to simulate the phenology of the European corn borer under future climate scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 245(C), pages 65-74.
    2. Wang, Enli & Engel, Thomas, 1998. "Simulation of phenological development of wheat crops," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 1-24, September.
    3. Gilioli, Gianni & Pasquali, Sara & Marchesini, Enrico, 2016. "A modelling framework for pest population dynamics and management: An application to the grape berry moth," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 348-357.
    4. Beddow, Jason M. & Kriticos, Darren J. & Pardey, Philip G. & Sutherst, Robert W., 2010. "Potential global crop pest distributions using CLIMEX: HarvestChoice Applications," Working Papers 188474, HarvestChoice.
    5. David Tilman & Kenneth G. Cassman & Pamela A. Matson & Rosamond Naylor & Stephen Polasky, 2002. "Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6898), pages 671-677, August.
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    1. Aguirre-Zapata, Estefania & Morales, Humberto & Dagatti, Carla V. & di Sciascio, Fernando & Amicarelli, Adriana N., 2022. "Semi physical growth model of Lobesia botrana under laboratory conditions for Argentina’s Cuyo region," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 464(C).
    2. Aguirre-Zapata, Estefania & Alvarez, Hernan & Dagatti, Carla Vanina & di Sciascio, Fernando & Amicarelli, Adriana N., 2023. "Parametric interpretability of growth kinetics equations in a process model for the life cycle of Lobesia botrana," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 482(C).

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