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Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding

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  • Yongshuo H. Fu

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
    Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1)

  • Hongfang Zhao

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Shilong Piao

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
    Key Laboratory of Alpine Ecology and Biodiversity, Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Center for Excellence in Tibetan Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Marc Peaucelle

    (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Shushi Peng

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Guiyun Zhou

    (School of Resources and Environment, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China)

  • Philippe Ciais

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University
    Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, CEA CNRS UVSQ)

  • Mengtian Huang

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Annette Menzel

    (Ecoclimatology, Technische Universität München
    Technische Universität München, Institute for Advanced Study)

  • Josep Peñuelas

    (CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallès, Barcelona
    CSIC, Global Ecology Unit CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Cerdanyola del Vallès)

  • Yang Song

    (University of Illinois)

  • Yann Vitasse

    (University of Neuchatel, Institute of Geography
    WSL Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research
    WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Group Mountain Ecosystems)

  • Zhenzhong Zeng

    (Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University)

  • Ivan A. Janssens

    (Centre of Excellence PLECO (Plant and Vegetation Ecology), University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1)

Abstract

Spring leaf unfolding has been occurring earlier in the year because of rising temperatures; however, long-term evidence in the field from 7 European tree species studied in 1,245 sites shows that this early unfolding effect is being reduced in recent years, possibly because the reducing chilling and/or insolation render trees less responsive to warming.

Suggested Citation

  • Yongshuo H. Fu & Hongfang Zhao & Shilong Piao & Marc Peaucelle & Shushi Peng & Guiyun Zhou & Philippe Ciais & Mengtian Huang & Annette Menzel & Josep Peñuelas & Yang Song & Yann Vitasse & Zhenzhong Ze, 2015. "Declining global warming effects on the phenology of spring leaf unfolding," Nature, Nature, vol. 526(7571), pages 104-107, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:526:y:2015:i:7571:d:10.1038_nature15402
    DOI: 10.1038/nature15402
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    Cited by:

    1. Jadwiga Nidzgorska-Lencewicz & Agnieszka Mąkosza & Czesław Koźmiński & Bożena Michalska, 2024. "Potential Risk of Frost in the Growing Season in Poland," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(3), pages 1-19, March.
    2. Meng Wang & Zhengfeng An, 2022. "Regional and Phased Vegetation Responses to Climate Change Are Different in Southwest China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-21, July.
    3. Rui Yin & Wenkuan Qin & Xudong Wang & Dong Xie & Hao Wang & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Martin Schädler & Paul Kardol & Nico Eisenhauer & Biao Zhu, 2023. "Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Hongshuang Gu & Yuxin Qiao & Zhenxiang Xi & Sergio Rossi & Nicholas G. Smith & Jianquan Liu & Lei Chen, 2022. "Warming-induced increase in carbon uptake is linked to earlier spring phenology in temperate and boreal forests," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-8, December.
    5. Xin Yang & Yuanyuan Hao & Wenxia Cao & Xiaojun Yu & Limin Hua & Xin Liu & Tao Yu & Caijin Chen, 2021. "How Does Spring Phenology Respond to Climate Change in Ecologically Fragile Grassland? A Case Study from the Northeast Qinghai-Tibet Plateau," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(22), pages 1-20, November.
    6. Qier Mu & Sainbuyan Bayarsaikhan & Gang Bao & Battsengel Vandansambuu & Siqin Tong & Byambakhuu Gantumur & Byambabayar Ganbold & Yuhai Bao, 2024. "Spring Phenological Responses of Diverse Vegetation Types to Extreme Climatic Events in Mongolia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-18, November.
    7. Gauzere, Julie & Lucas, Camille & Ronce, Ophélie & Davi, Hendrik & Chuine, Isabelle, 2019. "Sensitivity analysis of tree phenology models reveals increasing sensitivity of their predictions to winter chilling temperature and photoperiod with warming climate," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 411(C).
    8. Yann Vitasse & Martine Rebetez, 2018. "Unprecedented risk of spring frost damage in Switzerland and Germany in 2017," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 149(2), pages 233-246, July.
    9. Jinghan Liang & Armando Marino & Yongjie Ji, 2024. "Spatial and Temporal Change Characteristics and Climatic Drivers of Vegetation Productivity and Greenness during the 2001–2020 Growing Seasons on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-22, August.
    10. Shuying Han & Jiaqi Zhai & Mengyang Ma & Yong Zhao & Xing Li & Linghui Li & Haihong Li, 2024. "A Study on the Differences in Vegetation Phenological Characteristics and Their Effects on Water–Carbon Coupling in the Huang-Huai-Hai and Yangtze River Basins, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-24, July.

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