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Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate

Author

Listed:
  • Thea Turkington

    (University of Twente)

  • Alexandre Remaître

    (University of Strasbourg)

  • Janneke Ettema

    (University of Twente)

  • Haydar Hussin

    (University of Twente)

  • Cees Westen

    (University of Twente)

Abstract

Future trends in debris flow activity are constructed based on bias-corrected climate change projections using two meteorological proxies: daily precipitation and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) combined with specific humidity for two Alpine areas. Along with a comparison between proxies, future number of days with debris flows are analyzed with respect to different regional and global climate models, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and area for quantile mapping. Two different base periods are also analyzed, as debris flows were observed on only 6 (17) days between 1950 and 1979, yet on 18 (49) days between 1980 and 2009 for Fella River, NE Italy (Barcelonnette, SE French Alps). For both areas, future climate projections vary between no change up to an increase of 6.0 % per decade in days with debris flow occurrences towards the end of 21st century. In Barcelonnette, the base period and proxy have a bigger impact on the future number of debris flow days than the climate model or RCP used. In Fella River, the base period, RCP, and proxy used define the future range. Therefore the selection of proxy, base period and downscaling technique should be carefully considered for future climate change impact studies concerning debris flow activity and associated fast-moving landslides.

Suggested Citation

  • Thea Turkington & Alexandre Remaître & Janneke Ettema & Haydar Hussin & Cees Westen, 2016. "Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 293-305, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:137:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10584-016-1657-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1657-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Casey Dowling & Paul Santi, 2014. "Debris flows and their toll on human life: a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 203-227, March.
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    3. Caterina Melchiorre & Paolo Frattini, 2012. "Modelling probability of rainfall-induced shallow landslides in a changing climate, Otta, Central Norway," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 113(2), pages 413-436, July.
    4. Roberta Paranunzio & Francesco Laio & Guido Nigrelli & Marta Chiarle, 2015. "A method to reveal climatic variables triggering slope failures at high elevation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1039-1061, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Qigen Lin & Ying Wang & Thomas Glade & Jiahui Zhang & Yue Zhang, 2020. "Assessing the spatiotemporal impact of climate change on event rainfall characteristics influencing landslide occurrences based on multiple GCM projections in China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 761-779, September.
    2. Jiangcheng Huang & Huijuan Xu & Xingwu Duan & Xu Li & Peijia Wang, 2020. "Activity patterns and controlling factors of debris flows in the Upper Salween Alpine Valley," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1367-1383, August.
    3. Lorenzo Sangelantoni & Eleonora Gioia & Fausto Marincioni, 2018. "Impact of climate change on landslides frequency: the Esino river basin case study (Central Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(2), pages 849-884, September.
    4. T. Zieher & G. Gallotti & G. Rianna & A. Reder & J. Pfeiffer, 2023. "Exploring the effects of climate change on the water balance of a continuously moving deep-seated landslide," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(1), pages 357-387, January.
    5. Qinwen Li & Yafeng Lu & Yukuan Wang & Pei Xu, 2019. "Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.
    6. Zheng Wang & Ningsheng Chen & Guisheng Hu & Yong Zhang & Genxu Wang & Zheng Han, 2023. "Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2871-2888, April.

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