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Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns

Author

Listed:
  • V. Savo

    (Hakai Institute
    8888 University Drive
    University Roma Tre)

  • K. E. Kohfeld

    (8888 University Drive
    Simon Fraser University)

  • J. Sillmann

    (Pb. 1129 Blindern
    Research Unit for Sustainability and Climate Risks)

  • C. Morton

    (8888 University Drive)

  • J. Bailey

    (8888 University Drive)

  • A. S. Haslerud

    (Pb. 1129 Blindern)

  • C. Le Quéré

    (Norwich Research Park)

  • D. Lepofsky

    (Hakai Institute
    Simon Fraser University)

Abstract

Shifting precipitation regimes are a well-documented and pervasive consequence of climate change. Subsistence-oriented communities worldwide can identify changes in rainfall patterns that most affect their lives. Here we scrutinize the importance of human-based rainfall observations (collated through a literature review spanning from 1994 to 2013) as climate metrics and the relevance of instrument-based precipitation indices to subsistence activities. For comparable time periods (1955-2005), changes observed by humans match well with instrumental records at same locations for well-established indices of rainfall (72% match), drought (76%), and extreme rainfall (81%), demonstrating that we can bring together human and instrumental observations. Many communities (1114 out of 1827) further identify increased variability and unpredictability in the start, end, and continuity of rainy seasons, all of which disrupt the cropping calendar, particularly in the Tropics. These changes in rainfall patterns and predictability are not fully captured by existing indices, and their social-ecological impacts are still understudied.

Suggested Citation

  • V. Savo & K. E. Kohfeld & J. Sillmann & C. Morton & J. Bailey & A. S. Haslerud & C. Le Quéré & D. Lepofsky, 2024. "Using human observations with instrument-based metrics to understand changing rainfall patterns," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-12, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcom:v:15:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1038_s41467-024-53861-7
    DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-53861-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. V. Savo & D. Lepofsky & J. P. Benner & K. E. Kohfeld & J. Bailey & K. Lertzman, 2016. "Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 462-473, May.
    2. James D. Ford & Laura Cameron & Jennifer Rubis & Michelle Maillet & Douglas Nakashima & Ashlee Cunsolo Willox & Tristan Pearce, 2016. "Including indigenous knowledge and experience in IPCC assessment reports," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(4), pages 349-353, April.
    3. James E. Overland & Klaus Dethloff & Jennifer A. Francis & Richard J. Hall & Edward Hanna & Seong-Joong Kim & James A. Screen & Theodore G. Shepherd & Timo Vihma, 2016. "Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(11), pages 992-999, November.
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    5. Jian Liu & Bin Wang & Mark A. Cane & So-Young Yim & June-Yi Lee, 2013. "Divergent global precipitation changes induced by natural versus anthropogenic forcing," Nature, Nature, vol. 493(7434), pages 656-659, January.
    6. Jonathan A. Patz & Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum & Tracey Holloway & Jonathan A. Foley, 2005. "Impact of regional climate change on human health," Nature, Nature, vol. 438(7066), pages 310-317, November.
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