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Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps

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  • Markus Stoffel
  • Thomas Mendlik
  • Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler
  • Andreas Gobiet

Abstract

This study uses a long dataset of past debris flows from eight high-elevation catchments in the Swiss Alps for which triggering conditions since AD 1864 have been reconstructed. The torrents under investigation have unlimited sediment supply and the triggering of debris flows is thus mainly controlled by climatic factors. Based on point-based downscaled climate scenarios for meteorological stations located next to the catchments and for the periods 2001–2050 and 2051–2100, we study the evolution of temperature and rainfall above specific thresholds (10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 mm) and durations (1, 2 or 3 days). We conclude that the drier conditions in future summers and the wetting of springs, falls and early winters are likely to have significant impacts on the behavior of debris flows. Based on the current understanding of debris-flow systems and their reaction to rainfall inputs, one might expect only slight changes in the overall frequency of events by the mid-21 st century, but possibly an increase in the overall magnitude of debris flows due to larger volumes of sediment delivered to the channels and an increase in extreme precipitation events. In the second half of the 21 st century, the number of days with conditions favorable for the release of debris flows will likely decrease, especially in summer. The anticipated increase of rainfall during the shoulder seasons (March, April, November, December) is not expected to compensate for the decrease in future heavy summer rainfall over 2 or 3 days. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Stoffel & Thomas Mendlik & Michelle Schneuwly-Bollschweiler & Andreas Gobiet, 2014. "Possible impacts of climate change on debris-flow activity in the Swiss Alps," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 141-155, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:1:p:141-155
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0993-z
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Renate Wilcke & Thomas Mendlik & Andreas Gobiet, 2013. "Multi-variable error correction of regional climate models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 120(4), pages 871-887, October.
    2. Matthias Themeßl & Andreas Gobiet & Georg Heinrich, 2012. "Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its impact on the climate change signal," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 112(2), pages 449-468, May.
    3. Boris Orlowsky & Sonia Seneviratne, 2012. "Global changes in extreme events: regional and seasonal dimension," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 669-696, February.
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    1. Jiangcheng Huang & Huijuan Xu & Xingwu Duan & Xu Li & Peijia Wang, 2020. "Activity patterns and controlling factors of debris flows in the Upper Salween Alpine Valley," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1367-1383, August.
    2. Heping Shu & Jinzhu Ma & Shi Qi & Peiyuan Chen & ZiZheng Guo & Peng Zhang, 2020. "Experimental results of the impact pressure of debris flows in loess regions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(3), pages 3329-3356, September.
    3. Jiazhi Qie & Adrien Favillier & Frédéric Liébault & Juan Antonio Ballesteros Cánovas & Jérôme Lopez-Saez & Sébastien Guillet & Loïc Francon & Yihua Zhong & Markus Stoffel & Christophe Corona, 2024. "A supply-limited torrent that does not feel the heat of climate change," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, December.
    4. Qinwen Li & Yafeng Lu & Yukuan Wang & Pei Xu, 2019. "Debris Flow Risk Assessment Based on a Water–Soil Process Model at the Watershed Scale Under Climate Change: A Case Study in a Debris-Flow-Prone Area of Southwest China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-15, June.

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