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Debris flows and their toll on human life: a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011

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  • Casey Dowling
  • Paul Santi

Abstract

Debris flows cause significant damage and fatalities throughout the world. This study addresses the overall impacts of debris flows on a global scale from 1950 to 2011. Two hundred and thirteen events with 77,779 fatalities have been recorded from academic publications, newspapers, and personal correspondence. Spatial, temporal, and physical characteristics have been documented and evaluated. In addition, multiple socioeconomic indicators have been reviewed and statistically analyzed to evaluate whether vulnerable populations are disproportionately affected by debris flows. This research provides evidence that higher levels of fatalities tend to occur in developing countries, characterized by significant poverty, more corrupt governments, and weaker healthcare systems. The median number of fatalities per recorded deadly debris flow in developing countries is 23, while in advanced countries, this value is only 6 fatalities per flow. The analysis also indicates that the most common trigger for fatal events is extreme precipitation, particularly in the form of large seasonal storms such as cyclones and monsoon storms. Rainfall caused or triggered 143 of the 213 fatal debris flows within the database. However, it is the more uncommon and catastrophic triggers, such as earthquakes and landslide dam bursts, that tend to create debris flows with the highest number of fatalities. These events have a median fatality count >500, while rainfall-induced debris flows have a median fatality rate of only 9 per event. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

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  • Casey Dowling & Paul Santi, 2014. "Debris flows and their toll on human life: a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(1), pages 203-227, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:71:y:2014:i:1:p:203-227
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-013-0907-4
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    1. Reinhold Totschnig & Walter Sedlacek & Sven Fuchs, 2011. "A quantitative vulnerability function for fluvial sediment transport," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 58(2), pages 681-703, August.
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    1. Jiangcheng Huang & Huijuan Xu & Xingwu Duan & Xu Li & Peijia Wang, 2020. "Activity patterns and controlling factors of debris flows in the Upper Salween Alpine Valley," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(1), pages 1367-1383, August.
    2. Rakesh Bhambri & Manish Mehta & D. Dobhal & Anil Gupta & Bhanu Pratap & Kapil Kesarwani & Akshaya Verma, 2016. "Devastation in the Kedarnath (Mandakini) Valley, Garhwal Himalaya, during 16–17 June 2013: a remote sensing and ground-based assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1801-1822, February.
    3. Pukar Amatya & Corey Scheip & Aline Déprez & Jean-Philippe Malet & Stephen L. Slaughter & Alexander L. Handwerger & Robert Emberson & Dalia Kirschbaum & Julien Jean-Baptiste & Mong-Han Huang & Marin K, 2023. "Learnings from rapid response efforts to remotely detect landslides triggered by the August 2021 Nippes earthquake and Tropical Storm Grace in Haiti," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2337-2375, September.
    4. Rakesh Bhambri & Manish Mehta & D. P. Dobhal & Anil Kumar Gupta & Bhanu Pratap & Kapil Kesarwani & Akshaya Verma, 2016. "Devastation in the Kedarnath (Mandakini) Valley, Garhwal Himalaya, during 16–17 June 2013: a remote sensing and ground-based assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1801-1822, February.
    5. Thea Turkington & Alexandre Remaître & Janneke Ettema & Haydar Hussin & Cees Westen, 2016. "Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 293-305, July.
    6. Jon L. Riedel & Sharon M. Sarrantonio, 2021. "Debris flow magnitude, frequency, and precipitation threshold in the eastern North Cascades, Washington, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 106(3), pages 2519-2544, April.
    7. Olga Petrucci & Paola Salvati & Luigi Aceto & Cinzia Bianchi & Angela Aurora Pasqua & Mauro Rossi & Fausto Guzzetti, 2017. "The Vulnerability of People to Damaging Hydrogeological Events in the Calabria Region (Southern Italy)," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, December.
    8. Valentina Acuña & Francisca Roldán & Manuel Tironi & Leila Juzam, 2021. "The Geo-Social Model: A Transdisciplinary Approach to Flow-Type Landslide Analysis and Prevention," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-40, February.
    9. Alexander N. Gorr & Luke A. McGuire & Rebecca Beers & Olivia J. Hoch, 2023. "Triggering conditions, runout, and downstream impacts of debris flows following the 2021 Flag Fire, Arizona, USA," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(3), pages 2473-2504, July.
    10. Shiva P. Pudasaini & Michael Krautblatter, 2021. "The mechanics of landslide mobility with erosion," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, December.
    11. Liuqun Dong, 2023. "Energy consumption analysis of the granular run-out process: effect of particle shape and slope angle," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 117(2), pages 1673-1687, June.
    12. Zhiheng Wang & Dongchuan Wang & Qiaozhen Guo & Daikun Wang, 2020. "Regional landslide hazard assessment through integrating susceptibility index and rainfall process," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(3), pages 2153-2173, December.
    13. Loredana Antronico & Roberto Coscarelli & Francesco De Pascale & Francesca Condino, 2019. "Social Perception of Geo-Hydrological Risk in the Context of Urban Disaster Risk Reduction: A Comparison between Experts and Population in an Area of Southern Italy," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-23, April.

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