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Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Shanghai Construction No. 1 Group Co., Ltd.)

  • Ningsheng Chen

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences
    Academy of Plateau Science and Sustainability
    Chinese Academy of Sciences-Tribhuvan University)

  • Guisheng Hu

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Yong Zhang

    (Anyang Institute of Technology)

  • Genxu Wang

    (Chinese Academy of Sciences)

  • Zheng Han

    (Central South University)

Abstract

Many debris flows have occurred in small basins with a small glacier cover or snow cover in periglacial areas, suddenly caused high mortality and great damage. The hydrometeorological conditions that caused such debris flows are complex, making forecasting and early warning difficult. Previous studies for these small-glacial-covered basins have primarily considered rainfall as the only inducing factor of debris flows, and often the effects of temperature are neglected. Thus, we carried out a probabilistic analysis of variables derived from hydrometeorological factors for the Mount Gongga region, Sichuan, China, where debris flows were recorded on 14 days between 1988 and 2019. By analyzing hydrological characteristics when debris flows occurred, three distinct dominant trigger types could be identified. The results show that seven (50%) of the observed debris flow events during the study period, high-intensity rainfall was the dominant trigger, snowmelt by high temperature was identified as the dominant trigger for 2 (14%). Furthermore, five (36%) debris flow events could be attributed to the combined effects of long-lasting (or short-medium) rainfall and sustained higher temperatures. We find that the differences between the trigger types are statistically significant, and a susceptibility prediction differentiating between trigger types can outperform simple rainfall-only situations. This study contributes to an improved understanding of the hydrometeorological impact on debris flow initiation in high elevation watersheds.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Wang & Ningsheng Chen & Guisheng Hu & Yong Zhang & Genxu Wang & Zheng Han, 2023. "Hydrometeorological triggering of periglacial debris flows using a Bayesian approach: a case study of the Hailuogou Gully region, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 2871-2888, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05788-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05788-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Huayong Ni & Wanmo Zheng & Zongliang Li & Renji Ba, 2010. "Recent catastrophic debris flows in Luding county, SW China: geological hazards, rainfall analysis and dynamic characteristics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 55(2), pages 523-542, November.
    2. Thea Turkington & Alexandre Remaître & Janneke Ettema & Haydar Hussin & Cees Westen, 2016. "Assessing debris flow activity in a changing climate," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 293-305, July.
    3. Roberta Paranunzio & Francesco Laio & Guido Nigrelli & Marta Chiarle, 2015. "A method to reveal climatic variables triggering slope failures at high elevation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 1039-1061, March.
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